patrick.net

I think Trump bloviated on the Ukraine war ending. Ukraine and Russia are led by crazy people that will try to keep this going. Biden is ultimately the guy to blame and Obama. A negotiation could have started before the war. Alaska, Louisiana Purchase, etc were done without a war.

Russia could have bought the land from the word go and we could have sent Ukraine aid to keep the situation stable and not for weapons. We now know that Biden wasn't in charge.

Trump was kind of stupid for saying he'd end it, but he's a politician now and they overpromise. If the war does end in 2025, I'd still call it a victory. Not that it matters since he's a lame duck. I basically think 95% don't think or care about the war. As with anything it's the vocal minority that draws the attention at first. I think that's over now.

WookieMan says

Russia could have bought the land

Russians don't buy, they steal. Try cracking open a Russian history book sometime.

Booger says

Russians don't buy, they steal. Try cracking open a Russian history book sometime

They tend to pay for in Blood though.

WookieMan says

I think Trump bloviated on the Ukraine war ending.

Yep, he was full of shit and he finally admitted his impotence today in the "hockey" comment.

(Why does he keep referring to hockey - was he ever a hockey guy?)

Misc says

Booger says

Russians don't buy, they steal. Try cracking open a Russian history book sometime

They tend to pay for in Blood though.

Overpay.

According to Finster at financology.net, gold to bounce around for the next few years, but end the decade > $5000. Sic transit gloria dollar (@Patrick will have to correct my Latin declension - internet search is useless AI bullshit at this point).

By analogy, I think it should be sic transit gloria dollari.

Gold doesn't go up, the dollar just goes down.

Patrick says

By analogy, I think it should be sic transit gloria dollari.

Gold doesn't go up, the dollar just goes down.

Just like historically a silver quarter is equivalent in price to a gallon of gasoline.

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Patrick says

By analogy, I think it should be sic transit gloria dollari.

Gold doesn't go up, the dollar just goes down.

Generally. an average pullback in the price of gold from its high is about 40% in dollar terms.
The period of 1980-2000 was a real bummer to be investing in gold as it went down 75% over the course of a couple of decades.
Being right with the timing is everything.

According to Financology.net, gold might test <$3000 in the next several months but end up >$5000 by the end of the decade.

FYI: Finster was a pillar of iTulip (RIP).

I predict that:

1) Democrats/Media will gaslight that the GOP is going to denaturalize/deport the Jihadi Communist of NY (Mamdani).
2) They will do this IN HOPE that MAGA politicians like MJG will take the bait and push for this. And mebbe the Trump DoJ goes for it.
3) This is because they WANT the GOP to do just that while keeping their fake socialist hands 'clean'. Plus they can 'martyr' him to turn out the socialist base against Trump.

(The Establishment GOP did the same fucking thing more or less to the Tea Party by letting Obama's IRS go after them like British Pakistani gangs on a white girl, remember?)

Whether or not Trump/GOP DoJ is going to fall for this is or not is up for grabs, tho. I give 70/30 odds that they won't fall for it.

If the Team Trump is smart, it will make noises here and there that they are going to deport the Jihadi-Commie. 'Unnamed Sources at the DoJ' fake leaks and all that. Right around the time of the NY Mayoral election later this year. THIS will rally the Dem base for him and make life a living hell for Establishment Dems now and on and on.

Context: https://patrick.net/comment?comment_id=2186909

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FuckTheMainstreamMedia says

...

2026 record youth turnout for a midterm. Mark my words. And will vote overwhelmingly for Republicans.

I predict the far-left violent Democrats (but I repeat myself) will murder yet a third innocent person soon, following on the murders of Iryna and Charlie.

Black pill in me says. We may seem to be winning BUT. Our institutions, education systems are completely captured. Government, financial systems, and media are compromised. Debt is unmanageable. Our leaders can be murdered. When all there is to do is burn it down we have lost.

I feel bad for my children's future and for all those that have fought and contributed to leave a better future in the past. Its really hard to try to stay upbeat and hopeful.

Im guessing world war or collapse of some sort in this decade. All the governments of the world have seriously fucked up friends and enemies alike.

RWSGFY says

Not.

RWSGFY says

1 year later: did not.

RWSGFY says

WookieMan says

I think Trump bloviated on the Ukraine war ending.

Yep, he was full of shit and he finally admitted his impotence today in the "hockey" comment.

(Why does he keep referring to hockey - was he ever a hockey guy?)

1 year and 2x24 hours of ending a war in 24 hours.

Prediction: SCROTUS tells Trump his Tariffs are not legal but does not force the US to make re-payments. The next day Trump reinstates Tariffs using alternate laws.

Venezuela 2025 covfefe was predicted in 2020: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=g5KdibEvBH4&pp=ugUEEgJlbg%3D%3D

Trump is gonna propose a Tariff rebate to US citizens making less than $200k per year of about $2k.

The media and economists will say that this is inflationary.

Trump will wallop them by saying that these media and economists said that putting the tariffs in place was inflationary. He will further use this to show that the Federal Reserve was full of crap for not lowering interest rate further and vocally saying that his tariffs were inflationary when they were in fact the exact opposite.

Hopefully, by showing how incompetent the FOMC is, he can clean house there.

Misc says

Trump is gonna propose a Tariff rebate to US citizens making less than $200k per year of about $2k.

The media and economists will say that this is inflationary.

Handing out money is always inflationary, just as easy credit is inflationary. That is because prices are set to market and the market price goes up when excess cash is sloshed around. With tariffs, the market price is unaffected so whether the importer or the customer pays the extra costs depends on the elasticity of demand. For example, the iPhones that had a market price of $800 cost $20 each to make. The market price is already at the revenue maximizing price, so increasing the price will lower sales too much, thus Apple would pay any tariffs.

Misc says

Hopefully, by showing how incompetent the FOMC is, he can clean house there.

RWSGFY says

RWSGFY says

1 year later: did not.

Agreed. And he's starting up Venezuela.

HeadSet says

Handing out money is always inflationary,

Not if the money was taken from existing money elsewhere...such as tariffs do.

MolotovCocktail says

Not if the money was taken from existing money elsewhere...such as tariffs do.

So if welfare handouts are increased that would not be inflationary since the money came from taxes? Money is fungible, handing out cash drives up prices no matter where you claim the money came from.

HeadSet says

MolotovCocktail says

Not if the money was taken from existing money elsewhere...such as tariffs do.

So if welfare handouts are increased that would not be inflationary since the money came from taxes? Money is fungible, handing out cash drives up prices no matter where you claim the money came from.

Especially they print it out of thin air. We are buying our own debt. That’s inflation.

FortWayneHatesRealtors says

Especially they print it out of thin air. We are buying our own debt. That’s inflation.

Yep. Monetizing debt.

That is why productivity like improvements in the egg industry, oil/gas sector, etc. is required to ensure even with monetary and fiscal policies that standard of living is not progressively worsened for the working and middle class.

I'd just like to see some reforms in the healthcare industry, and still with doctors and nurses being well compensated.

HeadSet says

So if welfare handouts are increased that would not be inflationary since the money came from taxes? Money is fungible, handing out cash drives up prices no matter where you claim the money came from.

????

Inflation is simply increasing the money supply. It is not the price rises that come later. Basic Econ 101.

While most inflation causes price increases down the line unless production of effected goods & services are likewise increased, that doesn't mean most price increases are caused by inflation. If demand for something suddenly rises or production of it suddenly drops, prices rise regardless of the amount of money is in circulation.

So yes. When government robs Peter to give Paul goodies via taxation or future taxation because of debt raised instead - and that pushes up prices for those goodies - that's not inflation.

"All reparations is gonna do is make Cadillac the #1 car dealer in America." - from Barbershop

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=3K_sTiBPUrk

I predict the Buckeyes will win the National Championship in 2026.

Billionaire Oleg Deripaska fears that by seizing control of Venezuela's oil reserves, the Americans could devastate Russia's budget revenues.

"If our American 'partners' get to Venezuela's oil fields (and they've already got to Guyana's), they'll control more than half of the world's oil reserves. And apparently, their plan is to ensure that the price of our oil doesn't rise above $50 per barrel," Deripaska wrote on social media.

SCOTUS will determine that Trump exceeded his powers through IEPPA tariffs, but they will let the tariffs stand to avoid potential chaos and economic problems that unraveling them could cause.

They will, however, forbid Trump from using IEPPA to levy tariffs in the future.

A Telegram Conspiracy Group Favorite:

https://ratiobradbornius.substack.com/p/2026-prediction-memes

One by one you’ll see the prominent business people, the global political leaders either bow out of the system or become conservative natalists to some degree or be pushed out. ...

By 2035 you might see Nick Fuentes run for President of the USA and win if he’s still alive. Or some character like it. ...

The globalist order will not go away, just rebrand. ...

Gold and Precious metals come back into the picture for the next money reset.

Empire America is working on it’s next 250 year run and will keep the rest of the world leaders in line through fear of the weapons they don’t know we have. Whether we have them or not.

Deportations will go mainstream worldwide. At least in the Western hemisphere. Asians are racist AF and no one wanted to move to their countries anyway. Trust me, I live in a Korean neighborhood. They keep to their own. And that’s fine. If they didn’t then at some point there are no Koreans anymore. Goes the same for the rest of us. ...

But Gen Z is the generation that has been locked out of everything. Look for them to gatekeep anything that sucks out of society and watch them engineer a hybrid high tech low tech touch world where there will be more human contact but with absolute tech domination the likes of which that will scare the living daylights out of you.

Don’t worry, you’ll get used to the robot wives and robot husbands but at least they will remember everything and be there to take care of us when we can’t wipe our own asses.

The old world of the Cold War is done. Hitler may be respected for some of his good accomplishments before he went homicidal. Political correctness as a system will be replaced by political realism. ...

Look for Religion to make a comeback for a time. The world is empty and in the vacuum left behind by the collapse of liberalism and social media will be filled by the only thing that can - a supernatural being bigger than us - God. Jesus Christ offers salvation to anyone who calls upon his name. Islam will decline as liberalism no longer find an ally there. People will still look elsewhere into dead ends. Don’t let it be you.

The liberal woman will also decline in 2026 and beyond. It will take some time for the women to catch up to the men but they will because sooner or later there will be less and less liberal men to choose from. And they will die out because they’re not having kids. It’s a cycle old as time itself. Humans may decline by 25-50% in the next 50-75 years but it will be the living dead ones. ...

Don’t look for the globalists to go out of business any time soon. Anything that goes down must come up eventually. Just be smart enough to follow the trends and you’ll be fine.

Don't we already have a predictions thread?

Yes, merged now.