patrick.net

@Patrick - I don't know if you had links to iTulip back in the day (2000's) or whether I found it from a link on HousingPanic (Kief was awesome). But I'm generous enough to thank you both for collectively saving my financial ass at least twice since the 'naughties.

Yes, I remember iTulip. There are still references to it on the site:

https://patrick.net/comments?start=-40&cs=iTulip

Though I probably also linked to it a lot in my housing links, which I'm not sure I have a record of anymore.

Shit - Gold rimming $3200 now. It's gotta be the chicoms buying like mf's. Everything else is tanking.

Edit: $3206

Gold to silver ratio is over 105 right now -- which is insane. Bought some paper silver last week (SLV). The rubber band that hold these metals to one another is stretched tight. Something's gotta give...

MolotovCocktail says

Each cellphone contains ~0.034 grams of gold.

That is about $4 worth of gold in each cell phone

So how much labor is required to remove the gold ?

What is the net profit of this type of business ?

.

The three major gold bull runs in modern history: 1980, 2011, and 2024–2025.
1. The 1980 Gold Spike
Peak: $850/oz in January 1980
(Adjusted for inflation in 2024 dollars: ~$3,200/oz)
Drivers:
• Runaway inflation (CPI > 13%)
• Oil shocks and stagflation
• Iranian Revolution and U.S. hostage crisis
• Weak U.S. dollar and declining trust in fiat currency
• Low interest in holding dollars due to negative real returns
Crash:
Once Fed Chair Paul Volcker hiked interest rates above 20% to tame inflation, gold collapsed. By 1982, gold fell by over 60%.
⸻
2. The 2011 Gold Peak
Peak: $1,920/oz in September 2011
(Inflation-adjusted to 2024: ~$2,600/oz)
Drivers:
• 2008 financial crisis aftershock
• Fear of bank failures and sovereign debt crises (e.g., Greece)
• Quantitative easing (QE) and rising U.S. debt
• Zero interest rates, making gold more attractive
• Concerns about U.S. credit downgrade (S&P downgraded U.S. debt in 2011)
Crash:
As global markets stabilized and interest rate hikes returned post-2013, gold lost nearly 40% over the next few years.
⸻
3. The 2024–2025 Gold Surge (Ongoing)
Peak (so far): Over $3,400/oz in 2025
(Uncharted territory—not just inflation-adjusted peak, but nominal all-time high)
Current Drivers:
• Record U.S. debt (~$35T+) and rising deficit
• Inflation fears remain even as CPI moderates
• Geopolitical instability: wars, China-U.S. tensions, uncertain global leadership
• Growing loss of faith in fiat currencies
• Central bank gold buying at record levels (especially China, Russia, BRICS)
• Interest in de-dollarization and hedging against U.S. fiscal risk
• Domestic political instability in the U.S. (fears of authoritarianism, currency controls, etc.)
Is it a bubble or just a shift?
Too soon to say—but unlike 1980 or 2011, this surge is not occurring in isolation. It’s part of a broader re-evaluation of global financial systems, fiat vulnerability, and U.S. dollar dominance.
⸻
Comparison Chart Summary
Year Peak Price (Nominal) Inflation-Adjusted Key Driver Outcome
1980 $850/oz ~$3,200/oz Inflation, oil crisis, geopolitical fear Crashed post-Volcker
2011 $1,920/oz ~$2,600/oz Financial crisis, QE, debt ceiling drama Fell post-recovery
2025 $3,400+/oz All-time high Sovereign debt, inflation hedging, de-dollarization Still climbing

This may be either the end game of the Triffin Dilemma or a prelude to a new variation of fiat dollars akin to the invention of the Petrodollar in the 1970-80's.

The dollar is becoming almost an article of faith, just like Nuclear Fusion. So near, and yet so far . . .