patrick.net

AD says

WRONG, yes you do want to dox yourself here.

Find me then. Not a chance anyone can. Even Patrick who knows my first name at least. Even if I gave my last name, there are plenty of "me" in my region. I have a semi famous name, so you'd never find anything on me. It would all be directed at that person or literally thousands of others if searched. Either way I try to tread lightly.

If I mentioned the company building the panels you would most certainly find my town. They're pumping out frames like gangbusters. My little town is doing well for what it is. It's only going to do better. Need to think and work on local. Everyone gets hung up on foreign affairs and federal government. Work on your own back yard.

https://youtu.be/MjUWf97xA7o

https://nakedemperor.substack.com/p/this-weeks-must-reads-25-31-march

Patrick says

https://nakedemperor.substack.com/p/this-weeks-must-reads-25-31-march

But the housing experts on PatNet said...

UkraineIsTotallyFucked says

But the housing experts on PatNet said...

Depends where you are. I'm in an area with no building and the exodus has basically ended en mass. As much as I hate the fat fuck Pritzker, IL is slowly leveling off. I don't see housing prices crashing here. CA is going to be the biggest drag on national median home price due to disfunction, along with NY and other east coast states as Boomers move to FL, TX and AZ with cheaper home prices.

On paper it will look like shit. But in reality it's not like people will be losing their homes like 2006. They just won't be able to move and be stuck with 2020 interest rates. Oh well. That's the way I think it plays out. Boomers sell a paid off house for less and move to a lower COLA raising that areas prices, but the national median drops. Median is an awful metric for RE nationally. Especially when you factor in the US demographics. I could speak on this for an hour, but I'm too lazy, and I'd write a book already if I wanted to. I don't.

A massive paradigm difference between now and before is remote work. A ton of professionals (like me) do not have to move if we lose our jobs because we're remote and can get another remote gig. I know there's a lot of buzz about people returning to work, but remote work is here to stay forever. It's too lucrative for companies wanting to hire the best talent.

https://www.reddit.com/r/FirstTimeHomeBuyer/comments/1bt63ak/underwater_cant_afford_mortgage_im_a_stupid_pos/

Underwater, can't afford mortgage, I'm a stupid POS

TL:DR - bought our first house in 2022 for way too much, now it's worth nearly 200k less, yet our property taxes exploded, and our mortgage is over $5,300/month. I can't afford this and can't sell and just feel like I'm sinking and will never recover.

....

Realtor "friend" badgered us into buying in 2022, saying prices would never go down, and we'd never own a home if we didn't buy then. Her lender friend agreed, and they assured us our income would easily cover the mortgage (which was supposed to be $2,000/month less than what it is now). It would be a "great investment". I work remotely, so tons of our expenses would be tax write-offs. The area she convinced us to buy in is a boring suburb, outside of the popular city where we rented (a bigger house for only $2,000/ month), but it was totally going to go up in value based on not being too far from the city. And realtor friend assured us we wouldn't have to worry about taxes increasing more than 10%, as long as we filed a homestead exemption.

Fast forward to today:

the area is flooded with apartment construction and traffic,

nobody's buying here - at least not for anything close to what we paid and maybe never will without some insane world event like the last one,

work from home tax write-offs only count if you're self-employed, so that was crap,

we owe thousands in income tax because the lender convinced us to pull from our 401ks for the downpayment - saying we'd get a tax break on it because it was for our first house (we didn't, that program stopped over 10 years ago),

The homestead exemption didn't kick in until after our first year of ownership (when I tried to contest our tax assessment, the people at the hearing literally laughed when they saw how much we overpaid for our house, but they went ahead and upheld the assessment, even though they knew houses weren't selling for that much anymore)

our increasing property taxes have kicked our mortgage up to $5,300 / month.

We can't sell, and we can't afford the mortgage, we were just fine renting... like I said - I'm a complete ignorant moron and I'm paying the price for it, except I can't afford to pay the price anymore, so I'm hopeless as well as stupid.

porkchopXpress says

A massive paradigm difference between now and before is remote work. A ton of professionals (like me) do not have to move we lose our jobs because we're remote and can get another remote gig. I know there's a lot of buzz about people returning to work, but remote work is here to stay forever. It's too lucrative for companies wanting to hire the best talent.

This is very true. There's also the fact that a couple that has one spouse that can remote work, then can move where they want to. They're usually leaving less desirable location to better ones. The other spouse is maybe a teacher, nurse, etc. that can easily find work elsewhere with the WFH spouse.

Basically as I think you're implying, there's just going to be less movement of people. I'd move in a heartbeat to a different state, but we're pushing $500k/yr with a $1,200 mortgage that we couldn't get in any other state because my wife can't work remote. She's the bread winner. Easy, fun job besides the bull shit meetings, which are remote. Everything else is golf outings, hanging out and expense reports. And I get to hang out too if I behave myself... lol.

Hmmmm.... not my jam to research this or build it. But someone should create an income to housing price app/site. You put in the income you expect or want and what you'd pay for a house. I did this for CA and CO with job offers. It wouldn't be easy, but you'd get real estate agents salivating over the leads. Headhunters salivating over it as well. Maybe it exists already, but link jobs with housing is a good idea in my opinion.

WookieMan says

This is very true. There's also the fact that a couple that has one spouse that can remote work, then can move where they want to. They're usually leaving less desirable location to better ones. The other spouse is maybe a teacher, nurse, etc. that can easily find work elsewhere with the WFH spouse.

Yep. Companies are severely limiting themselves in hiring the best talent if they require people to relocate and go into the office. When I hire people, I have a massive advantage because they can be anywhere in the contiguous US and not have to move, or they can choose to move wherever they desire. This is what I did when I left CA for TN, which was the best decision I've made in a LONG time.

If I get recruiters pinging me about interesting positions that require relocation, I make sure to let them know that I would consider it if I can stay remote. Otherwise, it's a dealbreaker. They need to understand that so many people are never going back to the old way, unless it means putting food on the table.

https://boredbat.com/homebuyers-need-to-earn-80-more-than-they-did-in-2020-to-afford-a-home-in-todays-market/

Homebuyers need to earn 80% more than they did in 2020 to afford a home in today’s market

zzyzzx says

https://boredbat.com/homebuyers-need-to-earn-80-more-than-they-did-in-2020-to-afford-a-home-in-todays-market/

Homebuyers need to earn 80% more than they did in 2020 to afford a home in today’s market

Noooooooo. The Housing Experts said...

zzyzzx says

Homebuyers need to earn 80% more than they did in 2020 to afford a home in today’s market

Move or make more money? Neither are difficult if you want it. Most people settle and stay in the same place. There are cheaper areas. Higher paying jobs. I'm working to charter my friends private jet in September to the Ozark's.

Bitching about it and doing something about it are two different things. I'll take the latter. I give no shits what my house is worth. It will be paid off before I'm dead and there WILL be someone there to buy it or my kids inherit it loan free.

I think the bigger problem is the castration of men. They don't know how to turn a wrench. They rely on the limited trades currently available. Get ripped off when they could do it themselves. They're gay by default. My rehab would have been $120k easy. I did it for $20k. Includes a kitchen. My former boss came to the house and was like WTF? You did this? He was a broker, but also a general contractor. If you have boys, teach them. Hell even girls. The TV show with females is bull shit, but there are women that can work. If they're hot, keep them, keep them.

Oh man! This is the bomb!

https://theamericansun.substack.com/p/a-state-based-proposal-to-change

The comments make us on PatNet seem like humanitarian saints by comparison.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/2-3-million-home-listing-180556772.html

A $2.3 million home listing in Nantucket slashed its price by a whopping 74% after its shoreline experienced drastic erosion in just a few weeks

zzyzzx says

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/2-3-million-home-listing-180556772.html

A $2.3 million home listing in Nantucket slashed its price by a whopping 74% after its shoreline experienced drastic erosion in just a few weeks

My daughter married into a family that owns quite a bit of real estate on Nantucket. I visited last summer. She took us to an old lighthouse that had to be moved because of the erosion. At the same spot were homes that are extremely close to going over the edge. I think she said one of them was worth $20,000,000 at one time.

GNL says

My daughter married into a family that owns quite a bit of real estate on Nantucket.

There was a girl from Nantucket...

Translation: The Fed won't really cut rates beyond some tokenism. Oh, and they really don't give a shit about housing affordability but will use it as a rhetorical foil to justify not cutting rates.



https://www.dallasfed.org/research/economics/2024/0402

UkraineIsTotallyFucked says

I want INCEASES, dammit!

HeadSet says

UkraineIsTotallyFucked says

I want INCEASES, dammit!

We have to get to the no cuts phase before moving on to the we need increases phase.

zzyzzx says

We have to get to the no cuts phase before moving on to the we need increases phase.

Too bad, since the price of renting money should rise as has the price of renting houses, cars, and probably women.

UkraineIsTotallyFucked says

ERECTION INTENSFYING!!!

Any suggestions on good rental property in pa philly north suburb. Philly has lot of cheap property but funding good tenant in those bad neighborhood is issue. Something in decent suburb with good cap rate would be good.

zzyzzx says

We have to get to the no cuts phase before moving on to the we need increases phase.

The fuckers from Fed are no different from news reading talking heads.

While it is not my baseline outlook, I continue to see the risk that at a future meeting we may need to increase the policy rate further should progress on inflation stall or even reverse. I continue to see a number of upside risks to inflation.~ Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman, April 5, 2024

Both cases, they have the junior Fed flunkies deliver the news. Not Powell. Notice that?

But don't worry...the Fed Experts on PatNet assure us rate cuts (beyond some token .00001% basis points) are coming!

But the Fed Experts on PatNet....

UkraineIsTotallyFucked says

But the Fed Experts on PatNet....

Yeah, I read that the 10 Year Treasury rate needs to get down below 3.5% to make debt payment or service to below 12% of the total federal expenditures. I think in 2022 that debt service was 8% of the federal expenditures. I hope Wolfman at Wolfstreet shows a graph of debt service as a percentage of federal expenditures for each fiscal year at least from 1990 to 2023.

I heard on the radio about the 99 cent stores shutting in California, and below is the article. The radio news report said employee theft was a major reason for the closing. Are there any remaining pro-California fluffers on Patnet ?

https://apnews.com/article/99-cents-only-store-closures-0f44cf157c8d8a23085ee8ab4e2f7878

.

AD says

I heard on the radio about the 99 cent stores shutting in California, and below is the article. The radio news report said employee theft was a major reason for the closing.

Anything stolen under $1K is fine as per the "law". No police will come and save it!
The guy who call police, police themselves are all "racists" if they confront with thieves. It turns out the political clowns turns criminals into celebrities as the way of buying votes like 3rd world! More stores started keep the stuff behind the locked doors who are still in business! This procedure will add up the costs and change consumer experience.

AD says

99 cent stores shutting in California,

Product “shrink” was given as a reason.

AD says

Are there any remaining pro-California fluffers on Patnet ?

socal2...until his Tesla is stolen by a Ukrainian cowardly male that he insists is still in Ukey Nazi Land as part of 'one of the greatest militaries on Earth'.

original link

Florida inventory rockets back to pre-COVID levels.


While mortgage apps continue to Flounder

Check out the last couple of sentences above.

Brand new Constuction for $300k? ~1350sqft?
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/282-Lagoon-St-SW-Palm-Bay-FL-32908/104128935_zpid/

Or Grandpa passed away 35 year old 1990 used home for $282k in the same neighborhood?
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/1565-Giles-St-NW-Palm-Bay-FL-32907/43483705_zpid/

Homeloaners smokin' the crack,
They want those COVID prices back
Despite 7% they think they will get,
Better cut the ask and take Percoset.

AD says

Are there any remaining pro-California fluffers on Patnet ?

Sure in terms of quality of life it's still worth it if you can afford it, despite them leftoids trying hard to wreck it

mell says

AD says

Are there any remaining pro-California fluffers on Patnet ?

Sure in terms of quality of life it's still worth it if you can afford it, despite them leftoids trying hard to wreck it

But you’re supporting them which means you’re part of the problem, no?

AmericanKulak says

Florida inventory rockets back to pre-COVID levels.

For every 1% increase in the 30 year rate, then house prices should drop 10% based on mortgage affordability.

Figure at peak price in early 2022 that the locked-in rate was around 3%.

So if you buy down the 30 year mortgage rate to 6% from 7% and account for income / wage increases since early 2022, then home prices should drop around 20% to 25% to adjust for the increase in the 30 year mortgage rate.

AD says

For every 1% increase in the 30 year rate, then house prices should drop 10% based on mortgage affordability.

Only if corporate investors stop buying. Which you'd think they would because their financing costs go up too.

In my UkraineIsTotallyFucked says

AD says

For every 1% increase in the 30 year rate, then house prices should drop 10% based on mortgage affordability.

Only if corporate investors stop buying. Which you'd think they would because their financing costs go up too

Who is buying them up ? Invitation Homes stock is only up about 8% from its February 2020 level. All time high is $45 in December 2021.

When I stated in my last post a 20 to 25% correction for the 30 Year mortgage rate increase, I meant a correction to the peak price set around early 2022.

.