patrick.net

just_passing_through says

Eman says

How does one rise to the top of their preferred client list?

Reputation is paramount in any biz. Agents/brokers don’t get paid until the deal is closed. They’re essentially working for you, as a buyer, for free. That’s how I view it regardless of what others on this website think.

When we first started out, we called all the listing agents in our farm and asked them out for lunch. Do your homework so you can talk intelligently. Ask them why certain deals went down at such great pric (some text omitted to shorten quote...) ings you a deal, they own that listing for life. Unwritten rules in commercial real estate.

Do what you say you’re going to do. Keep your promise. Be reasonable. Don’t be a pain in the rear to work with so whenever they have a deal, they will remember who to call first, and who will close the deal without being a pain in the rear. They don’t get paid unless the deal is closed. A bird in hand is worth more than 2 in the bush. Be that bird in hand.

This is killer advice you don't see too often.

He didn't mention the capitol requirements though. :)

WookieMan says

Banks are paid up front basically. so throwing a couple months on the back end is cheaper than foreclosure.

Lenders are doing the same thing with delinquent auto loans as well.

GNL says

He didn't mention the capitol requirements though. :)

True but that's a lot more than I know...

Bitcoiner says

NuttBoxer says

Bitcoiner says

Short answer: historic low inventory.

Except this bullshit, and always has been.

Wait what?! Are you saying you believe active listings don’t matter or are you saying you don’t believe the stats?

Yes to both. I'm sure you learned about vested interest and validating sources in college right? If you pull all your data from an industry that lies in order to perpetually keep people buying and selling, you are deceived. If that industry is further part of a leveraging system built around greed and inflation, you will be completely lost.

My real world experience cuts through all that. I have lived in a "hot market" for over 20 years. During that time, I have moved on average every few years(some kind of wanderer disease, not recommended). I have always paid below market despite moving all the time in an area where inventory is supposed to be low. So am I just the luckiest fucking renter in Socal? Not impossible, but highly improbable.

ad says

Maybe people take their houses off the market after 3 months of not getting any reasonable offers.

Not may, they do. I see that a lot. And a pretty obvious ploy if you aren't so caught up in your narrative, you fail to exercise even the smallest amount of scrutiny.

Eman says

Interesting theory. I’m not smart enough to understand all of this stuff. However, based on history, less people will own more while the majority will own/have less. You can call it the 1%ers and the 99ers, or 0.1%ers and 99.9%ers. To give yourself and your family/future generations a fighting chance, figure out how to become the 1%er or 0.1%er.

Only true during centralization, which is dying in front of our eyes. We are moving back towards decentralization where the community and the individual will again become the seat of power.

NuttBoxer says

Eman says

Interesting theory. I’m not smart enough to understand all of this stuff. However, based on history, less people will own more while the majority will own/have less. You can call it the 1%ers and the 99ers, or 0.1%ers and 99.9%ers. To give yourself and your family/future generations a fighting chance, figure out how to become the 1%er or 0.1%er.

Only true during centralization, which is dying in front of our eyes. We are moving back towards decentralization where the community and the individual will again become the seat of power.

I hope you are correct.

WookieMan says

You lost me there man. I'd trust Biden's take on housing before zillow or even the tranny Bud Light thing spouting off real estate stats.

We need a TON of job losses for it to effect housing. 60%(ish) or so even own houses. More than you'd think are paid off in the older demo, so no mortgage. Most are low interest so grab a job at McDonalds and pay for the house.

I don't think people realize how thin things are job market wise as far as needing people. We're (some text omitted to shorten quote...) all. This is like Greece or Spain in the Eurozone. Important economies, but it's not the downfall of the US.

Not going to do it again, but get Uhaul rates from SFBA to Boise, ID and then the reverse. Or Phoenix. Shit, I'll just do it again. See attached. You guys are fucked in CA.

So fucking true. U-haul rental rates are where the rubber meets the road. It cost me 1/4 to move from TX to NY as opposed to the inverse.

Our current system is inherently unfair. Yes, I said unfair. The creation of money has been monopolized.

https://www.lewrockwell.com/2023/05/michael-snyder/the-middle-class-is-being-systematically-destroyed/

Over time, our capitalist economy has steadily evolved into a system where almost all of the wealth and almost all of the power are concentrated in the hands of giant institutions.

Collectively, big government and big corporations run virtually everything, and this system of “corporate socialism” funnels tremendous amount of wealth into the pockets of a very small minority of the population.

If you are in that club, life is good.

But if you are not in that club, life can be a struggle.

NuttBoxer says

Yes to both. I'm sure you learned about vested interest and validating sources in college right?

As shitty as brokers are, you do know they get fined if they fuck around with data, right? We were fined at least a dozen times. Most by user/entry error into the MLS.

It's not huge, but there's little incentive to put shit data in. Games were played if I'm being honest because the third party sites had the feed to the MLS and would sort shit differently. We literally would do $1 price cuts so the IDX would put listings at the top because of a price reduction on Zillow and the likes. My boss would get shit from our board and we had a form signed by the seller to approve $1 price cuts up to a certain amount. The site shows price cut but it was only $1 and it's at the top of the feed again. Not sure that works anymore.

Everyone's stats are shit basically is what I'm saying. Everyone in the industry lies. 100%. It wasn't me personally, but lies were made about closing prices. Rental data is even easier to manipulate in an area. My boss would manipulate the rental comps to raise section 8 payouts. It increased the net by $6k/mo before I left.

I'd guess 30-40% of all real estate data is manipulated in some way from real world experience. Rental data is no different. There's really no central source for data on it because no one, generally uses a Realtor to post rentals. Rentals are probably the worst dataset in real estate.

stereotomy says

So fucking true. U-haul rental rates are where the rubber meets the road. It cost me 1/4 to move from TX to NY as opposed to the inverse.

CA is fucked. This is a shit hole to shit hole rate by me. Chicago to St. Louis and the reverse. I'm lazy but Uhaul seaching is kind of fun. Basically what this tells me is that people moving in these regions is pretty flat. My CA comment with Uhaul shows me the state is fucked. Mind you these are likely common middle class people that can't afford a massive semi to move their shit.

Y'all are losing middle class folks on top of the wealthy. It's not looking good. Nutt, you're probably smart to go to Yuma.





*Yes I know the rates are based on distance/milage. It's the difference between inbound and outbound. It's the same trip. Talking damn near 50% extra to get out of CA.

Bitcoiner says

By the way, even if unemployment increases dramatically, what are you basing the lower home prices assumption on? It depends on which sector is being impacted. If low wage jobs are impacted for instance then how is that related to home prices?

A few suggestions:

1. Read before you post. As the RJ Talks video describes, and as the screenshot clearly states, "Unemployment appears to have risen faster in the higher-income group.” I recommend checking out the video.

2. It is helpful, as many have suggested, to post links to your sources. If the source is the BLS, the data is worthless as a reliable reporter of where things are now. Even during the financial fraud crash, the BLS was reporting rosy unemployment data, whilst other sources were more accurately reporting reality, only for the BLS to later issue revisions more in line with reality.

Bitcoiner says

Regarding your last comment. You said you are moving to AZ (Yuma) because you get a better deal there to rent a larger place. So no, I would not call you the luckiest renter in SoCal ;).

So someone lives somewhere 20 years, but gets ready to move and suddenly they aren't from that place anymore? I don't anyone who thinks like that. Patrick could move to Ireland tomorrow, he's still Bay Area.
Let me try and help follow the economic theory you're proposing. Lack of supply drives up prices right? On some rentals? NOOO, on all rentals. So if at least 10 times the same person moves in an area with "low supply", and always fines cheap rentals, when they want, where they want, only two possibilities. They are the luckiest renter who just happens to run across dumb-ass landlords who rather than wanting to make money, want to cut their margins to the bone for that renter, or there's plenty of fucking inventory, and landlords have to be competitive to snatch up the good renters.

You ain't got much comeback for a while now, because you can't refute real life. I don't live inside four RE stats articles, I live inside four walls. But your articles are all unbiased right? Tell me does the MBA benefit from high forbearance rates? If people can't afford to pay their loans, is that in their best interest to advertise they might not get their money back? I would have to guess no. Now the dude who writes for zerohedge. What's his financial incentive? Get a few more clicks? Not from you or people like you right? You pretend that shit don't exist. So well I can see some financial incentive on one side, it's not even, at all.
And what about me? What am I getting from sharing my story? I got no skin in the game like you, I gain nothing by lying to myself or anyone else. And truth is neither do you. But if you so invested, like those cats at MBA, that the kind of crash coming would wipe out a significant chunk of change, well... I can see a man not wanting to face that reality.

But you can't pretend this shit away anymore than you could 15 years ago, and everyone here knows it.

Bitcoiner says

Huh? My point is: unemployment is historic low.

I try to look at where things may be heading and why. Banks have tightened up lending. This is a debt-fueled economy. Powell has said he wants to bring RE prices back to normal levels and increase unemployment to get inflation under control.

RE has been in a recent unsustainable bubble fueled by toxically low interest rates and free money from the sky by our dimwitted leaders on both sides of the aisle, in response to the shutdown of the economy, an ill-advised and murderous non-scientific knee-jerk reaction to the fake scamdemic. It cannot endure, and in the current rate rising and credit tightening environment, likely will not.

Q2 2020 median home price: $322,600
Q4 2022 median home price: $479,500

That is roughly an appreciation of 30% per year. An aberration caused by poor policies enacted by incompetent leaders.

Bitcoiner says

Huh? My point is: unemployment is historic low. Do you disagree that the unemployment rate is 3.4%?

Now you're just straight lying, and I don't feel bad saying that. I don't even think the government rates are that low anymore. Fuck all the people who never found work and fell of that list right? Fuck everyone having to work two jobs to make ends meet. Fuck all the open positions being for wages so low, no one can live on those jobs.

I've watched blue collar neighborhoods I used to live in fall down for years. I see the record homeless when I go downtown. I talk to my brother-in-law who had to shut down his US residence and live full time in TJ because he can't get that OT anymore. And I wasn't even a bit surprised when Trump won in 2016 because I know who voted for him, how long they've been pushed down, and how pissed off they are. And I've watched for years and years and people have shaken the dust of California from their heels leaving for better markets everywhere else.

You wanna look at stats, look up this one. How much of the rent portfolio in San Diego county is made up of government money? Section 8 pays up to $4k a month now in some areas, higher I think. Filter out all the zero down programs, all the USDA and FHA money. All them new home buyer and county loans, and the military shit. And tell me how much real wealth is actually floating around. And then think about this. If California already blew through $30,000,000 in surplus in one year, and their tax base is still fleeing, what kind of future do your real estate have?

NuttBoxer says

Section 8 pays up to $4k a month now in some areas, higher I think.

Holy shit.

Bitcoiner says

Do you agree the rate is 3.4% or is it much higher in your opinion?

Well, here is the official BLS data: https://www.bls.gov/opub/ted/2023/unemployment-rate-3-4-percent-in-april-2023.htm

Whether or not it represents reality, especially in this regime of weaponized agencies, I could not say.

GNL says

He didn't mention the capitol requirements though. :)

@GNL,

Real estate is a puzzle IMO. To succeed, we need to find the pieces and put them together. I didn’t have much capital to start with in 2009. Fortunately, I was able to figure it out. This was why I did a bunch of $150-$160k condo deals. Each deal required borrowing two $20k CC at 0% for 12-18 months with 3% balance transfer for the 25% down payment and closing costs. Finance 75% with bank’s money at 4.5% interest at the time. Put a renter in there where they paid $1.5-$1.6k/month for rent.This was why I did a bunch of $150k condo deals. These condos rent for $2.3-$2.7k/month now.

When I had more deals than I could borrow money, I took on partners. 50% of something is better than 100% of nothing. I did 6 deals with someone I met on Patnet alone. I got to 18 properties in just over 3 years (11 was my ownership).

Once the condo has been seasoned for 6 months, I/we would refinance, pull out the equity to payoff the 1st lender and CC debt. Rinse and repeat. These same condos are worth $550-$650k now.

3 years in, I met someone wealthy while my Patnet partner wanted to move and retire in Brazil at 40 years young. Two of them met a few times, but they didn’t get along.

To me, the 5 pieces of real estate are:

1) good deals (have someone find them if we don’t know how). They work for us for free too. I used to source deals from realtors and at the courthouse steps using foreclosureradar.com.

2) capital. Use someone else’s if we don’t have it. It can be through partnership, private debt, hard money, or syndication. I’ve done all.

3) financing. If we don’t have credit, use someone else’s. I didn’t have a job so I financed under my wife’s name, siblings and partners.

4) contractor/handyman. Find someone reliable.

5) property manager (PM). Find a great PM. Ours was a referral through an attorney. Be an investor and not a landlord so we don’t get burnt out.

Bitcoiner says

It sounds like you are getting pushed further out east because of high rents in Alpine and because you want a larger place. (Your words).

Partially correct on the move from Alpine. But if the rent stayed at $1,700, we likely wouldn't move. I can't stand paying more for the same thing, SDGE is just as bad on this point. That's what really sparked the move. As to being pushed, again half right. We chose not to return to the city when we moved back three years ago. Not economics. Crazy is what kept us out, and my long-time desire to leave the city behind. Unfortunately that part is getting sacrificed in Yuma, but as it's no where near the size of SD, I'm willing to take a shot. The part that does play into that, our decision to never again spend more than 25% of our income on rent(net of course).

Logan, is that you, again..?

gabbar says

NuttBoxer says

Section 8 pays up to $4k a month now in some areas, higher I think.

Holy shit.

About four years ago they changed the assistance limits match the zip code of the rental, so yeah, in some areas, Section 8 pays over $4k per month(if you quality for 3bdr).

Something else you inflation forever's probably aren't considering. The public sector makes up over half of the income in this country. Between government jobs, and government aid. If you don't understand how unsustainable that is, again, read someone like Griffin or Rothbard.

Bitcoiner says

Yep. You would need massive unemployment and higher rates and a 3x in inventory for this to have an impact to the housing market.

Mortgage rates have been going up, decreasing demand. Let’s keep an eye on where unemployment is heading. Credit is already tightening. Let’s circle back in January 2024 and we’ll see.

Patrick says

$415k is super cheap. In the Bay Area, they go for a lot more than that depending on location.

Bitcoiner says

Eman
That’s great stuff! Congrats.

Question, let’s say you purchase a new construction with 10%-15% down and you use the builders preferred lender. Intention is to move in and use as a primary. But after the loan is secured you actually rent it out.
Now it’s used as an investment property. An investor loan would have required a higher down payment and higher rate. any repercussions?

@Bitcoiner,

I call it water under the bridge so don’t bring it up and don’t mention it to other people.

If you bought with the “intention” to live there, but you couldn’t due to job relocation, or unforeseen circumstances, then it’s fine. If you bought with the “intention” to rent it out, then it’s mortgage fraud.

A good underwriter can catch this when they look at your personal financial statement. The best way to stay and grow in this biz is to do biz with integrity. Trust is paramount.

In my market, there’s a whale who falsified rent roll to get the maximum cash-out on the refinance. Chase caught it and banned him from their list. Then rumors circulated. It’s a small world and people talk. Don’t be that guy.

Eman says

Patrick says

$415k is super cheap. In the Bay Area, they go for a lot more than that depending on location.

@Patrick,
Let's assume, the 1200 s.f. gray box is empty box with no value. The price represents the land value only.

I know, but thought it was funny anyway.

Bitcoiner says

An investor loan would have required a higher down payment and higher rate. any repercussions?

Ask Ed Jew...

Al_Sharpton_for_President says

Q2 2020 median home price: $322,600
Q4 2022 median home price: $479,500

That is roughly an appreciation of 30% per year. An aberration caused by poor policies enacted by incompetent leaders.

I don't mean to bash CA all the time but the reality is people are moving out of the state in droves. Median national price is a bad metric to base housing on. As more sell in California the median rise will go up with it as the most populous state and expensive. They likely had equity, buy the nicer places in a new location at a high price.

Say you sell your $1M home in CA and buy a $1M home in Denver that is bigger and nicer. Or Texas. People with $150-$350k homes are staying put locked in at low interest rates. So the sales are on the high end. You have to segregate the data. I can promise you $100k-200k homes didn't appreciate 30% in 2 years in most places or even nationally.

An yes, we do have incompetent leaders. Stats in a country of $330M people in vastly different climates and regions is difficult to judge nationally. There are other datasets in industries that can show you what's happening like the Uhaul example. They can't keep enough trucks in CA and know they can charge a higher price. CA home prices are the highest in the country. Therefore your national median will go up. I'm from IL, we experienced the exodus. That's why the numbers are skewed. Plus low inventory. I'm not seeing a bubble with 90% of people in low interest loans or paid off loans. Commercial office real estate is probably the biggest concern.

Bitcoiner says

Yep. You would need massive unemployment and higher rates and a 3x in inventory for this to have an impact to the housing market.

This thesis seems to be complete rubbish in many markets. A few of many examples follows. Again, I direct you to RJ Talks which covers peak-to-current prices. Current BLS unemployment data in these markets is easily accessible.

Region……………………………..UE rate…………...SFH price change, peak-to-current
Austin, TX………………………….3.00%………………………..-21.21%
Elko County, NV ………………….3.80%………………………..-18.08%
Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI……2.80%………………………..-16.57%
Dallas Ft. Worth, TX………………3.90%…………………………-6.27%
Utica-Rome, NY…………………..3.6%……………………………-8.6%
Boise, ID…………………………...2.9%…………………………..-5.2%

Eman says

If you bought with the “intention” to live there, but you couldn’t due to job relocation, or unforeseen circumstances, then it’s fine. If you bought with the “intention” to rent it out, then it’s mortgage fraud.

Yes, that is fraud. I have not checked recently, but FHA and other loans had a provision where the loan is called as soon as the house is rented out. No provision for hard luck stories like job relocation. You had to sell or refinance.

Bitcoiner says

Massive money printing, historic low rates and Covid BS lead to insane housing appreciation.

Then inflation came and the FED increased rates. Mortgage rates more than doubled in a short amount of time.

Yes, I have described the same above. In other words, an unsustainable bubble.Bitcoiner says

Fast forward to today: housing has stabilized

Wrong. I have posted several examples above, and there are many more, where prices are decreasing and even crashing, in spite of low unemployment rates. The same high mortgage rates that have trapped current owners in their homes is decreasing demand.

Regarding unemployment rates, if all laid off well-paid programmers find work stocking produce at Safeway, the unemployment rate rmains unchanged, and yet former potential buyers of high-priced RE have become non-buyers. Demand has decreased, which the unemployment rate cannot capture. This is what post 2229 is hinting at.

HeadSet says

Eman says

If you bought with the “intention” to live there, but you couldn’t due to job relocation, or unforeseen circumstances, then it’s fine. If you bought with the “intention” to rent it out, then it’s mortgage fraud.

Yes, that is fraud. I have not checked recently, but FHA and other loans had a provision where the loan is called as soon as the house is rented out. No provision for hard luck stories like job relocation. You had to sell or refinance.

I literally bought my current house from the Best Man in my weddings Dad. It was a HUD foreclosure. Owner occupants got the first crack at it before investors were allowed to make an offer or at least it be accepted. I didn't know this until years later.

It's government at the end of the day with HUD. He could have bought it in a tiny town and no one would have ever followed up that he wasn't living there. He was a rule follower. He should have lied in all honesty and I wouldn't have my home today. Get crafty is all I'll say. I put an all cash offer in with $10k in the bank. Put yourself in shit spots and figure it out. I was fortunate and did.

People can bitch, rent or complain or figure it out. Everyone is a con and playing a game. Everyone. Until you understand that, you'll generally lose or be average. Buy at $315k two flat in Chicago when you're 22 in 2006. You get your ass kicked in life. Learn from it.

Bitcoiner says

Yes, prices are down from the peak but month over month prices have gone UP.

Let’s review. Your statement that "You would need massive unemployment and higher rates and a 3x in inventory for this to have an impact to the housing market.” has been shown to be wrong in numerous markets where unemployment is low and prices are decreasing and even crashing.

You now point to a momentary blip as proof that the market is going up. You do know that in the financial fraud crash there were also momentary increases in home prices. But the long-term trend was in the opposite direction.

Bitcoiner says

A crash is a free fall in price

An 21% drop is a crash. Bitcoiner says

>Correct, during 2008 and the following years you saw momentary increases.

Yes, the point is that prices do not move in a completely straight line. There are always ups and downs. But the trend is the key.

Bitcoiner says

We should have seen a significant increase in inventory but here we are in May with 1M active listings.

Bit and I have not seen eye to eye on some things. He's not wrong on this. Could we go sideways yes. Expecting or thinking a 2006 housing crash is coming or anything close to that is not logical.

Fact is no one is moving from their 4% or under interest rates in this climate. Lending standards are better, significantly. Fact is home purchasers in their 40-60's got their ass chewed in 2006. They ain't taking any more risk. Housing will not be the catalyst this time and I don't think it moves up or down 10% in either direction for a while. That's not a crash or boom.

The median will change when the 5th largest country (state) has thousands and potentially a million fleeing it. CA is a massive state. Others will gain. The crash is coming for LA and SF. Call me out in 18 months. Data is proving me right so far. As much as Bit has pissed me off, he's probably fine in San Diego region. I'd get out of anything between Carlsbad and Sacramento(ish). There are pockets but it takes $$$$$$ and they're generally less urban.

We'll see. In August might drive up to the Bay area when I'm in San Diego. Wife will be working and I can do what I want, can get a hotel up north. My trip is flexible. I'll meet people, don't be a douce bag. I'm not going to give my real name either as a warning. I'll go by Biff Butterbutt.

I say it’s still a bit early to say we are out of the woods…wait till September.

WookieMan says

The median will change when the 5th largest country (state) has thousands and potentially a million fleeing it. CA is a massive state. Others will gain. The crash is coming for LA and SF.

Let's hope you're right.

It's too crowded here, making life miserable. Miserable congestion, miserable pollution, miserably high cost of living. Our population way exceeds the sustainable carrying capacity of the place.

High housing cost, as ®eal Estate Cool-Aid drinkers here point out, is because of the low liquidity. A miniscule portion of SFH have been bought/sold in recent years of the insane prices. Even if we have a (welcome) massive drop of 50% or more, homes will still be expensive here. And because so few have bought in recent years, very few people will be hurt by such a correction.

Since so few properties have changed ownership (ie, been reassessed), if a huge drop in prices creates buying opportunity for local kids here, the overall tax revenues could very well go up on the volume. Jeez, one reason among many for public safety problems here is that the cops cannot afford to live in our communities. They live extremely far out, suffer long miserable commutes, adding stress to the job each day before they even start the job. They are stressed out mercenaries.

What you might think of as ®eal Estate Doom and Gloom will be a welcome relief.

So I am dealing with a “buyer’s agent.” She forwarded a new home that met our criteria that was priced at the extraordinary price per sq.ft. of $417! When I asked for comps for the area, she forwarded me a home that had appreciated 13% per year annually over the last six years. Most likely, a lot of that appreciation was in 2020-2022, when the average home gained 38%/year, due to incompetence at the Fed and in the Oval Office, both Trump and Biden.

So this “buyer’s agent” is attempting to build a house of cards, to justify the over-priced new home using an unsustainable bubble priced comp. Should I just shoot her in the face?

WookieMan says

In August might drive up to the Bay area when I'm in San Diego.

Why in gods name would you do that? For starters you have to drive through LA.