patrick.net

Eman says

If I have to guess, they’re all beautiful. Been thinking of buying a vacation rental/property where it can “almost” pay for itself when not in use. Haven’t figured out the location and asset….yet

Dominican Republic is pretty affordable, and not too far from the mainland.

NuttBoxer says

So the gay neighbors. Dude got a dog, but had no idea how to take care of him. This was Arizona, and our backyard was rocks, so always let my dogs out in the front yard. My chihuahua's are old, and mostly toothless, all bark, but they do like to act aggressive if someone comes by the yard. Thing is this guy never needed to cross in front of our house. He could have easily walked the other direction. But dude insisted on walking across our property, then would freak out whenever our dogs would be let out to use the bathroom, and would bark at his dog. He wanted me to leash my dogs in my own front yard. Of course fuck him, I never changed anything I did.

That doesn't sound like it was about his gayness.

When I was in college I had a gay roommate. He was the landlord renting out spare rooms in his McMansion. It got kind of weird when a "friend" who in the Gay Community might be referred to as "a flamer" moved in, to share the master bedroom with the homeowner. This was in 1985-86 when Rock Hudson was sick from AIDS. At the time they were still trying to figure out how the disease was spread. Me and the other two tenants moved out to get away from the milieu.

zzyzzx says

WTF??? Try Ocean Casio in Atlantic City. Way cheaper and better. You'll thank me later.

I've been. No thanks. The Carolinas are one of the few beach areas I've neglected. Honestly anything Atlantic side is pretty shitty as far as my beach standards go and what I've experienced. Mexico beaches generally blow too. Sargassum flows are a massive problem in the Yucatan. You'll get 2' of that shit on the beach overnight and it smells like shit.

If it's a conversation about water and sand specifically. Nothing I've ever experienced is better than the panhandle of FL for sand. On a calm day the water competes with the Caribbean. The Atlantic simply cannot do that. And the sand sucks.

Bitcoiner says

Besides St. John, which ones are your favorite islands where you could see yourself buying a vacation home?

St. Croix or St. Thomas for ease of travel. US territories and all. Vieques or Culabra, Puerto Rico are intriguing, but have yet to go (massive tax advantages). Mainland is eh... Cool spots but it has a more urban feel.

I'd say Cayman or Aruba if going the expat route. Mexico is intriguing for costs but I'm not certain a vacation rental option to get it paid down while I wait would work there. People want resorts. Cayman, Aruba, USVI all have a vacation rental industry that's strong. BVI is an option too, but I'm not a fan of British regulations. Covid for example. They shut that place the fuck down.

I need ease of travel with family and kids back on the mainland. 4 hour flight or under, non-stop or short layover. Aruba is probably the best due to extremely limited hurricane chances. St. John is 3/4's National Park. The only good thing the Rockefeller family did well on. Unless I fall into money I'm looking at a studio or best case 2/1 at $800k on St. John today. I've got people down there now that with a rental I could set renters up with an amazing time.

B.A.C.A.H. says

That doesn't sound like it was about his gayness.

Of course not, anymore than the Mexican experiences had to do with being Mexican, or the white ones with being white. I've said this a lot of different ways, but let me say it again. People act the way they do because of who they are, on the inside. Once you start labeling actions by outside characteristics, be it renters, fags, niggers, arabs, etc, you expose yourself as a bigot.

I guess this is just more hyperbole and rents will NEVER GO DOWN AGAIN!!!

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/us-rents-verge-first-annual-drop-covid-crash-amid-supply-glut

Eman says

Given our rents are high, our PM charges 5% flat rate for apartments and 6% for SFH/unit.

That's a good rate for sure. It wasn't worth waking up for $200/month on Chicago rents. So rates are higher here. One call could cost you $200 in time and gas so you're negative managing it. Lot of evictions in Chicago and they take a long time.

When I was talking about the water heater I was talking about DYI landlords. I can get 50 gallon units for $600 and put it in myself. Pricing is different everywhere. I'd expect CA to be higher and then factor in labor. I can do it though for the cost of the WH. Do I want to? No.

I've had fucking nightmares. Had tenants throw their air mattress into the furnace closet. Condensation pipe for the AC snapped and pushed the sump pump float to the bottom (empty pit). It wasn't and flooded the basement. Stupid little shit adds up. I'll admit I don't have it anymore, but would be open to 2-3 houses I personally own, not apartments. If you got good management awesome. But everyone starts small generally. You either have it or you don't. I don't like stress even with management.

Have you looked into warehouse and non-retail commercial space? My uncle pumps out $30-40k/mo on hassle free space that the tenants are required to take care of. Like a bus barn for a school district. One building. I'm avoiding personal interactions in real estate beside maybe a couple houses if I can find a deal.

SunnyvaleCA says

Texans buy a $500k house and complain that 5% taxes on it costs them $25k/year.

It's closer to 2.1% depending on what county / school district / medical district you live in. There are also limits on how much it can go up in a single year (just not as generous as prop-13) for people who live in their homes. For landlords like me there is no limit. Also once you reach a certain age, 65 I believe, there are more limits to property tax raises people can use.

WookieMan says

That's a good rate for sure. It wasn't worth waking up for $200/month on Chicago rents. So rates are higher here. One call could cost you $200 in time and gas so you're negative managing it. Lot of evictions in Chicago and they take a long time.

When I was talking about the water heater I was talking about DYI landlords. I can get 50 gallon units for $600 and put it in myself. Pricing is different everywhere. I'd expect CA to be higher and then factor in labor. I can (some text omitted to shorten quote...) not apartments. If you got good management awesome. But everyone starts small generally. You either have it or you don't. I don't like stress even with management.

Have you looked into warehouse and non-retail commercial space? My uncle pumps out $30-40k/mo on hassle free space that the tenants are required to take care of. Like a bus barn for a school district. One building. I'm avoiding personal interactions in real estate beside maybe a couple houses if I can find a deal.

5-6% is an exceptional rate. For friends who I referred to him, he charges them $300 for leasing fee in addition to 5%.

I learned to loosen up and treat it as a business with a smile from our PM. I love the guy and his team members. Fantastic people. PM is a thankless job unfortunately.

The thought of NNN has crossed my mind a few times. Need to build up my cash stash war chest before I take on the next asset class.

Eman says

Have you looked into warehouse and non-retail commercial space? My uncle pumps out $30-40k/mo on hassle free space that the tenants are required to take care of.

How does one go about finding a warehouse and non-retail commercial space to purchase? What does your uncle have?

gabbar says

Eman says

Have you looked into warehouse and non-retail commercial space? My uncle pumps out $30-40k/mo on hassle free space that the tenants are required to take care of.

How does one go about finding a warehouse and non-retail commercial space to purchase? What does your uncle have?

Mediocre deals are listed on Loopnet. There’s a saying in commercial real estate. Loopnet is where good deals go to die.

In general, it’s our job to find the diamond in the rough and polish it. Good deals happen “off-market” in most cases. Your agents/brokers are the ones who tend to source the deals for you. It’s your job to rise to the top of their preferred client list so whenever they have a good deal, you’re one of the first clients they call. You have an hour or less, the quicker, the better, to respond with a yes or a no as they shop the deal to all their preferred clients.

Eman says

It’s your job to rise to the top of their preferred client list so whenever they have a good deal, you’re one of the first clients they call.

How does one rise to the top of their preferred client list?

gabbar says

How does one rise to the top of their preferred client list?

Probably quick answers that are frequently 'yes'.

Bitcoiner says

After such a steep incline it’s expected that rents plateau for a while or even slightly go down year over year.

Finally something I can agree with. Nothing goes up forever. Now if everyone can start thinking in terms of real value, we'd have a revolution overnight. What's the cost of rent in gold or silver over the past five years? What about wages? Now that's a sure way to see if you really are making more, or inflation is eating it all...

gabbar says

Eman says

It’s your job to rise to the top of their preferred client list so whenever they have a good deal, you’re one of the first clients they call.

How does one rise to the top of their preferred client list?

Reputation is paramount in any biz. Agents/brokers don’t get paid until the deal is closed. They’re essentially working for you, as a buyer, for free. That’s how I view it regardless of what others on this website think.

When we first started out, we called all the listing agents in our farm and asked them out for lunch. Do your homework so you can talk intelligently. Ask them why certain deals went down at such great prices while others are at high prices. Then tell them you’re looking for great deals like what you saw. Share with them your strategy.

Then follow up, follow up, and follow up. Then dine them again. Then follow up and follow up. Then dine them again, etc…. Stay in front of them often so they remember you. Whoever brings you a deal, they own that listing for life. Unwritten rules in commercial real estate.

Do what you say you’re going to do. Keep your promise. Be reasonable. Don’t be a pain in the rear to work with so whenever they have a deal, they will remember who to call first, and who will close the deal without being a pain in the rear. They don’t get paid unless the deal is closed. A bird in hand is worth more than 2 in the bush. Be that bird in hand.

Spent some time looking through the property in my area and San Diego. I see people trying to charge thousands more than what they ever got for property, or setting ridiculously high initial prices for property the purchased. Only a few of the listings I checked showed small, reasonable increases, and solid tenant retention. Most of the listings are getting no action, and prices are ping-ponging all over the place attempting to attract attention.

The kind of rampant greed and speculation you only see at the top.

Eman says

Reputation is paramount in any biz. Agents/brokers don’t get paid until the deal is closed. They’re essentially working for you, as a buyer, for free. That’s how I view it regardless of what others on this website think.

When we first started out, we called all the listing agents in our farm and asked them out for lunch. Do your homework so you can talk intelligently. Ask them why certain deals went down at such great prices while others are at high prices. Then tell them you’re looking for gre (some text omitted to shorten quote...) nt of them often so they remember you. Whoever brings you a deal, they own that listing for life. Unwritten rules in commercial real estate.

Do what you say you’re going to do. Keep your promise. Be reasonable. Don’t be a pain in the rear to work with so whenever they have a deal, they will remember who to call first, and who will close the deal without being a pain in the rear. They don’t get paid unless the deal is closed. A bird in hand is worth more than 2 in the bush. Be that bird in hand.

Thank you. This is helpful indeed.

Bitcoiner says

Nuttboxer, looking at - let’s say 50 - properties doesn’t give you any meaningful insight / indications of where the market is headed.

Look at indicators for San Diego such as Active listings, expected market time, purchase application data etc. If you actually want to know where the market is headed you would want to follow people who do market tracking for a living. Altos research, Steven Thomas, Logan motashami etc. make it easier on yourself and follow the pros. I know you probably won’t but I thought I try ;)

San diego’s spring market is sizzling hot. Expected market time is 40 ish days. I am living north of San Diego and yes, the +1M homes sit a little longer but they sell eventually. Often all cash offers. By now, inventory should have increased because seasonality is slowly kicking in. It hasn’t. People are dis-incentivized to sell since they are locked in to much lower rates.

It does if you buy/rent one of them. But you're obviously propagandized to a certain opinion. I say that because when I provide specific examples, you ignore them. When I link to articles showing rents on the decline nationally, you ignore them. So what other conclusion can I draw?

WookieMan says

Roths, 401k, HSA, IRA, etc. If you max those out then fine have $40k or $40M in a savings account that could be seized if you default. At that point there's no reason to default, just pay. I'm strictly talking in strategic senses. Middle class person with $100k family income loses a job and can't pay the mortgage. Leverage the default as much as you can. One by not paying. Two protect yourself/finances. Third is short sell and get all liability waived. I/we did this with probably 90 short sales. (some text omitted to shorten quote...) y party can take those funds. Not one client had a dime taken from their checking or savings. The loans are sold off, but even then I would never bank with who lends me the money unless it's a commercial/business account.

I'm in by no ways promoting dumping debt. If you get yourself in a fucked up situation there is a way out is all I'm saying. Too many think it's doom and gloom and do something stupid including taking their life... over money and credit. You can always make more and repair it.

Let me buy you a beer.

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/05/16/home-depot-hd-earnings-q1-2023.html

Home Depot posts worst revenue miss in about 20 years, lowers forecast as consumers delay big projects

Booger says

Home Depot posts worst revenue miss in about 20 years, lowers forecast as consumers delay big projects

Yeah, home sales are in a freeze. Need for the 30 year mortgage to settle for at least 3 months below or near 5.25%.

Home Depot is about 32% below its all time high set in December 2021 and only about 15% above its February 2020 level. So its real return (or inflation adjusted return) is about 5% since February 2020 (which accounts for dividend).

The S&P 500 is about 15% below its all time high set in December 2021, and only 20% above its February 2020 level.

The S&P 500 has been trading sideways for almost the last 12 months.

,

Bitcoiner says

we also know that videos or articles about an upcoming crash / foreclosure crisis / shadow inventory etc get by far more views/clicks than the “boring” reports that the pros (altos research, calculated risk, Steven Thomas and Logan motashami) publish.

For sure. You do have a more balanced view than Logan, who I would never ever follow or listen to. Guy is too much of a hardliner for markets never go down, doesn't have any grasp of economic history. Stats can be easily manipulated if the source is not unbiased, and there's big money in keeping the market hot as long as possible. Not much profit in my view, so naturally makes it more honest.

I'm so fucking tired of the small space here, can't wait to have some room for the first time in three years.

ad says

Yeah, home sales are in a freeze. Need for the 30 year mortgage to settle for at least 3 months below or near 5.25%.

Now why is this the view, instead of house prices just need to be realistic in light of higher interest rates? Higher interest + more down + return to normal 10 - 15 year mortgage = more affordable, responsible housing purchases.

Why are people so sold on lifelong debt slavery? Oh yeah, greed...

NuttBoxer says

Now why is this the view, instead of house prices just need to be realistic in light of higher interest rates? Higher interest + more down + return to normal 10 - 15 year mortgage = more affordable, responsible housing purchases.

Why are people so sold on lifelong debt slavery? Oh yeah, greed...

I think peak prices were set around 3.5% rate for the 30 year mortgage. If the 30 year rate steadies at 5.5% then that means housing should go down 20% based on affordability standards (i.e., 10% drop in price for 1% increase in mortgage rate).

I am hoping wages go up 3% a year while home prices remain constant at 20% below from peak for at least 3 years. I'd like to see that for rentals as well.

I realize that is ideal for affordability but just like any asset or commodity in a free market, its not going to be the case as it will likely over correct due to market volatility.

Bitcoiner says

During times of low interest rates people said that if rates finally go up, prices have to come down significantly. Now people see that this isn’t the case.

It is the case in a few markets (Austin, etc.). In most places it's going to take more time, as in at least a couple of years.

Bitcoiner says

If history is any indication, price is a function of supply and demand (it’s not a function of affordability of the avg Joe)

If the prices do not go down to compensate for the higher borrowing cost, it seems the only way Joe could afford a house is to double up with multigeneration or another family. Do you see this as a trend?

I believe this is all part of the great reset. Bitcoiner, or any of us, may not like where it will ultimately lead.

Bitcoiner says

GNL says

I believe this is all part of the great reset. Bitcoiner, or any of us, may not like where it will ultimately lead.

Can you explain? I have no idea what you are referring to. What means great reset in plain English?

https://www.amazon.com/COVID-19-Great-Reset-Klaus-Schwab/dp/2940631123

Don't buy it. If you want the book, I can get it to you, without giving the assholes any money..

NuttBoxer says

Why are people so sold on lifelong debt slavery? Oh yeah, greed...

You're not "lifelong debt slavery." You don't have to pay it and you could live there for 2-3 years free of anything besides utilities. Rent for 1-2 years and buy again after your credit gets cleaned up. Good luck getting more than 60 days on an eviction if you hit a rough patch and finding a new place. I witnessed both scenarios 100 times each, easy during the housing bust. I lurked and wasn't active here at that time and didn't talk/comment.

Only way I rent will be for 6 months in snowbird locations or a quick vacation rental. I'd prefer to own the snowbird location though. The only upside to renting is if you're disciplined and put any savings away, if there are any. In 8 years I've made $200k on an $85k purchase. That's, on paper, but it is accounted for since my mom is assuming our mortgage to keep the tax rate low. We then "borrow" $100-200k, really gift, but there's loopholes and build and put down another $50-75k. New mortgage will likely be for about $300k. Refi as rates drop. That's not greedy, it's logical.

Yes I'll have a higher mortgage, but a new custom home with warranties on everything and I'll be doing some of the work and watching it like a hawk. I believe you said you have kids. Mine are at that age now where travel is getting tougher because of activities. We'll be home much more even though that doesn't make sense. We're usually traveling 2-3 months of the year. So having a big house didn't make sense. We also bought only thinking we'd have 2... but we have 3 now. Life changed. Renting would have put me in a shit spot in this current climate for renting and our situation.

I've been in a situation renting where the owner decided to sell and had to move. It's how we bought our current house but it sucked. I had no control. Fucking showings all the time. Keeping the place tidy with a baby and 2 year old. Fuck EVER being put in a situation I don't have control over. Paid the rent, were good tenants, no issues, he was just old and wanted to sell. Got our full security deposit back, so no animosity between us, it just sucked.

The rent versus buy comparisons only really work in Coastal areas and popular cities. You'd be a moron to rent where I'm at, but probably makes sense in CA for sure, again if disciplined in investing the rent savings. Otherwise paying down principle and appreciation over almost any 10 year stretch makes owning more lucrative.

If you're not handy though I wouldn't own. Shit breaks and it's a domino effect. You need your 6 month safety net of savings for normal expenses. If you own, I'd say have $20k just for the house for an emergency. Reality is you're paying all this to your landlord renting. They're then investing that in more homes or other assets. Oh and tax free money on appreciation up to $500k if married for having a roof over your head.

The real estate industry is shit, but renting makes no sense in my world. There are a bunch of other scenarios but this comment is too long. Renting is slavery to the landlord should be the term. Even in a tenant friendly city.

ad says

I am hoping wages go up 3% a year while home prices remain constant at 20% below from peak for at least 3 years. I'd like to see that for rentals as well.

I realize that is ideal for affordability but just like any asset or commodity in a free market, its not going to be the case as it will likely over correct due to market volatility.

From what I hear from people in my industry, even 3% isn't happening a lot of places, and inflation is way above that at this point.

Now where does market volatility come from...

Bitcoiner says

Short answer: historic low inventory.

Except this bullshit, and always has been. I've given you my own experience paying hundreds of dollars below market and moving way more than we should have in a hot area(San Diego). Like I already said, central banks, leverage, and greed. That's your short answer, but you have to read some history books to know that one.

Bitcoiner says

GNL says

I believe this is all part of the great reset. Bitcoiner, or any of us, may not like where it will ultimately lead.

Can you explain? I have no idea what you are referring to. What means great reset in plain English?

The plan to steal all your property, all your privacy, and all your freedom. Don't worry, will never happen(in our lifetime). But you may want to worry that you're playing the game they setup for you without knowing your opponent, or that you're even playing.

Bitcoiner says

GNL says

I believe this is all part of the great reset. Bitcoiner, or any of us, may not like where it will ultimately lead.

Can you explain? I have no idea what you are referring to. What means great reset in plain English?

They, whoever "they" are, want everyone to have less. The entire green agenda is about getting people to use less. Ideally, they want no one to own anything while they assure you that you will be happy. Look at the EV push. How many people are ever going to be able to purchase an EV? More and more people will fall down the economic ladder. What are you going to do with all of these people? The money to satiate them will come from those who own everything. That means lots of taxes and maybe even confiscations. It is my belief that that is where we are heading. Maybe it gets turned around but, I really do not think so. Housing, imo, will show us in that inventory will NEVER be high enough from this point forward.

Bitcoiner says

Wait what?! Are you saying you believe active listings don’t matter or are you saying you don’t believe the stats?

days on market is an indicator such as if it is more than 120 days on market than its likely a buyers market

i suspect if the average days on the market is 120 days or more, then supply is greater than demand

GNL says

They, whoever "they" are, want everyone to have less. The entire green agenda is about getting people to use less. Ideally, they want no one to own anything while they assure you that you will be happy. Look at the EV push. How many people are ever going to be able to purchase an EV? More and more people will fall down the economic ladder. What are you going to do with all of these people? The money to satiate them will come from those who own everything. That means lots of taxes and maybe even confiscations. It is my belief that that is where we are heading. Maybe it gets turned around but, I really do not think so. Housing, imo, will show us in that inventory will NEVER be high enough from this point forward.

Interesting theory. I’m not smart enough to understand all of this stuff. However, based on history, less people will own more while the majority will own/have less. You can call it the 1%ers and the 99ers, or 0.1%ers and 99.9%ers. To give yourself and your family/future generations a fighting chance, figure out how to become the 1%er or 0.1%er.

Bitcoiner says

https://www.redfin.com/city/16904/CA/San-Diego/housing-market

Days on market are nowhere near 120days currently. Inventory is historic low. Nuttboxer said that’s BS. So I want to understand why he is saying that.

Maybe people take their houses off the market after 3 months of not getting any reasonable offers.

I'd like to see the median and average price, especially for per square footage by zip code and by home type (condo, townhome, detached home,etc.) as well as lot size.

I'd compare that price data to median household income for that zip code.

.

GNL says

They, whoever "they" are, want everyone to have less. The entire green agenda is about getting people to use less. Ideally, they want no one to own anything while they assure you that you will be happy. Look at the EV push. How many people are ever going to be able to purchase an EV? More and more people will fall down the economic ladder. What are you going to do with all of these people? The money to satiate them will come from those who own everything. That means lots of taxes and maybe even confiscations. It is my belief that that is where we are heading. Maybe it gets turned around but, I really do not think so. Housing, imo, will show us in that inventory will NEVER be high enough from this point forward.

The goal is "equality for the masses" which means the bottom 90%. Its egalitarian with the Woke religion as the amusement or distraction (i.e., Woke theater or "bread and circus").

Cloward Piven Strategy (with tactics like open border and H1B visas) is one means they use to achieve this.

.

Eman says

figure out how to become the 1%er or 0.1%er.

That's like setting a goal for becoming president...anyone "can" become president but, not "everyone" can. It is in everyone's best interest to have a huge middle class. Without it, we become a third world country. I admit that I am a bit of a doomer. Think about how insane things are now. Listen to the things they are telling you/us. Look what they did to Trump without any repercussions whatsoever.

@Eman

If you are a rich guy cruising on passive income, get the fuck out of dodge. Get yourself a nice little vanity farm with goats, chickens and a potato and tomato garden.

Bitcoiner says

Absolutely, if sellers can’t get close to asking and are not forced to sell they take it off the market. You can easily test it yourself. Send out some low ball offers. I did (in the phoenix area). Nobody accepted. My investor buddy is doing the same right now. Wants a deal but no takers. Median household income / affordability has no impact to the market I believe. Especially not measured by median Forced selling and significant increases in inventory impacts price. You can’t have a price crash with historic low inventory. Which city is close to you?

What are your thoughts on the forbearance ending with Covid?

Bitcoiner says

Send out some low ball offers. I did (in the phoenix area). Nobody accepted.

Back in 2009 there were a lot of subprime mortgages and unqualified or delinquent home owners.

Now you have qualified home owners sitting on mortgages that average a 3.5% rate.

There is no motivation incentive for them to sell. And there is no panic as well.

.