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Are We Headed Into Another Real Estate Collapse?


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2022 Mar 15, 2:47am   5,593 views  120 comments

by WillyWanker   ➕follow (0)   💰tip   ignore  

I haven't posted in a while, though I've been a member since 2008. I remember this forum as it was one of my favorites in the aughts because I, along with most people who followed Patrick Killelea, believed the frothy real estate market was ready to burst.

I see most people here now post about politics and the Wuhan Flu. I'm in agreement with most here: I'm a former liberal who voted for Bill Clinton but I voted for Donald J. Trump in 2016 and in 2020.

Today the world is in crisis and real estate prices in the US are crazy high.

I have friends who have just put their homes on the market. And others, who should know better, who are awaiting real estate lotto to be 'able to purchase' homes in communities in Arizona and Florida. I don't think I've heard people speak about waiting in line to buy up a tract house in a gated community since 2006. What gives?

https://www.realtor.com/news/trends/how-record-high-gas-prices-soaring-inflation-will-affect-homebuyers-and-owners/?source=patrick.net

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113   GNL   2022 Mar 19, 4:21pm  

Eman says
by connecting clients with out of state (OOS) turnkey providers.

What is a turnkey provider?
114   just_passing_through   2022 Mar 19, 6:06pm  

Eman says
The plan has been working…..until it doesn’t of course.


Those are fantastic numbers!

Well, if CA goes from Facist to full Commie with your skills you could make that work in any state in the union. For that matter, from what I've read that strategy works in virtually every nation on the planet.
115   Eman   2022 Mar 20, 10:54am  

WineHorror1 says
Eman says
by connecting clients with out of state (OOS) turnkey providers.

What is a turnkey provider?


Turnkey providers are people who sell old housing stocks in rough and declining neighborhoods to the naive, unsuspected folks in the expensive markets, who are chasing faux cash flow.

In general, there are more bad turnkey providers than good ones. Turnkey houses tend to sell above appraised value so investors are in the hole from the get go, but they’re buying for cash flow so who cares right? Well, the tenant profiles are bad to begin with and they don’t treat your property with respect so every time they move out or getting evicted, your property is destroyed. You would spend so much money fixing it up. All your faux cash flow is gone and more.

There are a ton of them on Biggerpockets looking for fresh meet. There are a few brokers in the Bay Area as well as SoCal who would throw you to these turnkey shysters and collect their outrageous commissions. We’re taking about 5-8% a pop.
116   Eman   2022 Mar 20, 10:57am  

FJB says
Eman says
The plan has been working…..until it doesn’t of course.


Those are fantastic numbers!

Well, if CA goes from Facist to full Commie with your skills you could make that work in any state in the union. For that matter, from what I've read that strategy works in virtually every nation on the planet.
FJB says
Those are fantastic numbers!

Well, if CA goes from Facist to full Commie with your skills you could make that work in any state in the union. For that matter, from what I've read that strategy works in virtually every nation on the planet.


Thanks. Anything is possible. We all make bets and live with the consequences.

People actually told me that. If I could make it in the Bay Area, I should be able to make it elsewhere. I hope I don’t have to move from the Bay Area. Life is great…except the politics, intolerance and homelessness are getting crazy around here.
117   GNL   2022 Mar 20, 11:31am  

Eman says
Turnkey providers are people who sell old housing stocks in rough and declining neighborhoods to the naive, unsuspected folks in the expensive markets, who are chasing faux cash flow.

Caveat emptor
118   Eman   2022 Mar 20, 11:45am  

The formula for the Bay Area is pretty good. Once you got it figured out, you no longer wanted to go out of state and chase the faux cash flow.

We’re grossing $1.7M on our apartments. An average 3% annual rent increase = $51k/year. Let’s say $15k goes to pay for the increase in expenses, we net $36k/year. $3k/mo can service $600k. We also get $250k/year in principal pay down. This is how we have been able to extract $500-$800k/year in cash out refinance (tax-free) and use the proceeds however we see fit. Then rinse and repeat.
119   NuttBoxer   2022 Mar 20, 12:37pm  

Onvacation says
We're all going to die and all have to pay taxes.


That second part is made up by government. There was not direct tax on income for over half our countries existence.

Onvacation says
Without making any definite predictions I don't think it can last more than a couple more centuries.



You are aware the world used Silver until the late 1800's, and gold until the early 1900's to back it currencies. With some small regulation between banks extending to the 70's. So the current system has existed for less than 100 years. Feel free to look back in history for any 100% unbacked fiat system that's lasted longer.

The arrogance or ignorance in assuming things have always been as they are in our time is the biggest reason people are caught in catastrophe. Not intending to insult anyone, but this is fact, something we must always be on guard against.

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