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Housing Crash = Déjà vu All Over Again?!


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2018 Oct 31, 2:39am   5,796 views  51 comments

by bill   ➕follow (2)   💰tip   ignore  

A guy I trust on housing, other than Patrick, says there are signs and maybe trouble ahead

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/housing-market-now-reminds-me-of-2006-robert-shiller-says-2018-10-30

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49   Reality   2018 Nov 2, 9:02am  

HappyGilmore says
HeadSet says
The government backing allows too much easy money which is what drives up prices. Without government backing, the irresponsible borrowers would not be able to bid up prices. The only people in the market would be people who saved up the down payment and then the houses would be affordable enough to buy with a 10 -15 year loan.


All that would do is create more landlords and higher rents. That would increase inequality and hurt the middle class. Housing prices would not fall much because anybody who is no longer a buyer becomes a renter and drives up the rental cost. This means investors can and will pay more for housing.


Government backed loans do not keep deadbeat borrowers in their homes (nor would it be fair if they did: what would be the responsible people who do not chase mania? chopped liver?). They still get foreclosed; the lenders/banks get paid by the government backing/put. Encouraging people who are not financially responsible to buy homes end up becoming a way of ripping off the down-payment money from the lower middle class at economic cycle peaks. It's the same as when government encourages women and minority to buy stocks at the stock market cycle peaks.
50   RecentCost   2018 Nov 9, 4:49pm  

HappyGilmore says
That's nonsensical. Banks loan out money as an investment and only do so when their analysis shows it will meet an ROI and generate profits. They will not make unprofitable loans just because they have additional money.


Banks typically originate loans and sell them to government-sponsored enterprises (GSE) such as Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. The banks don't care if they are bad or unprofitable loans since they sold to someone else who is ultimately responsible for them. Private money lenders and other lenders who actually hold the loans they originate will be much more concerned with the quality of loans they are making and the current state of the real estate market.

A major reason for the real estate crash in 2008 was due to banks making terrible loans and then passing them off to other entities. Make the commission then sell off the garbage loan.
51   Bd6r   2018 Nov 9, 4:55pm  

Reality says
It's the same as when government encourages women and minority to buy stocks at the stock market cycle peaks.

I am neither woman nor minority, but my retirement fund manager was haunting me just before market crashed telling that I should immediately buy stocks (I am in bonds now). I wonder how he could have timed the worst time to buy with such precision...

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