patrick.net

AD says

Please post the address or at least zip code of the foreclosure that you win in the auction. I'd like to see the demographics for the zip code at least ,and if possible the price and tax history for the home (via Zillow).

Here is the actual property, being relisted,https://www.auction.com/details/961-n-rose-st-escondido-ca-92027-2728404-o_1232l it didn't even go above $300K. The bank is being very unrealistic with their reserve, because it has squatters and since you can't see the inside you have to figure up to $50,000 to rehab it if it is destroyed. With those unknowns, I was budgeting $50K for repairs, and another $50K for debt service, buyer premiums, and selling costs. I held at $200K conservatively putting a selling price, all fixed up at $400-$450. Even though the comps are much higher, because in an even nicer neighborhood, this is happening:

Malcolm says

Here is the actual property,

Below is what I found about this property. I am not sure why it was foreclosed on, maybe there was a major home equity loan taken out by the owner who was unable to pay it off.

1) https://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Marcos/300-Joshua-Ave-92069/home/3837826
Redfin estimates it at $517,267 and that it was last sold in 1998 for $170,000

2) https://www.trulia.com/p/ca/san-marcos/300-joshua-ave-san-marcos-ca-92069--2079584622
Trulia estimates it at $552, 242 and it was sold in 2019 for $390,000

AD says

Trulia estimates it at $552, 242 and it was sold in 2019 for $390,000

I'm guessing the 2019 sale is the trustee sale/foreclosure. Even what I consider a reckless buyer wouldn't go above $300K, and it has now had two tries at open auction. I'm a player at $200, that is the only price to make real money on it. More than $500K and I say impossible for that house in current market.

AD, you remind me of something I was saying to my girlfriend yesterday. This collapse is a little different, in that it is not time bomb loans causing foreclosure. It is loss of income on houses that are actually not under water and the banks are pulling the plug on the refinance game, as they don't want to be holding the bag. I am finding houses worth over a million dollars with unaffordable debt of $380K. Banks know that it isn't actually worth a million and won't do a bailout loan.

Malcolm says

It is loss of income on houses that are actually not under water and the banks are pulling the plug on the refinance game

Loss of income ? You mean they can't rent the homes at a reasonable and sustainable price ?

Or the owners were laid off from their jobs and cannot make the mortgage payments ?

AD says

Loss of income ? You mean they can't rent the homes at a reasonable and sustainable price ?

I definitely think that, though opinions differ on what is reasonable, which I will just define as the going rate in an area.

I personally sold when the rents seemed unsustainable to anyone who was applying. Lots of men seem unemployable for whatever reason. So you’re dealing with a woman supporting a family on 30-50k verifiiable a year, and somehow, even though they have horrendous credit and a criminal record, somehow they are going to rent a house for $2,200 a month.

As for bring laid off? Here are the scenarios I see.

1. Military whose training doesn’t transfer to the civilian market.
2. People burn out or can’t continue a job ie policemen.
3. People who didn’t really have jobs, they just kept taking equity along the way to keep the lenders happy.
4. Divorces cut a household in half, though sometimes it is a woman shedding dead weight.
5. Faking it until breaking it. People faking it and then running out of credit cards and payday loans.
6. People losing benefits.
7. People too old to command the same salary.
8. Professional segments whose industry doesn’t pay like it used to. Ask @Patrick.

There are many more, but full employment doesn’t mean high paying jobs.

I HAVE CAUGHT ZILLOW DELIBERATELY DELETING BANK SALES FROM ITS SOLD LISTINGS.

This is obviously at the request of the Realtor bunch. Now it would seem almost no houses are being sold, since the bank sales were the biggest bunch, however, people will be happy to know that the median price is probably still going up because shedding these sales from the database will make conventional sales appear stellar.

If you are curious about a real example, fortunately I had pasted one of them in this thread. It is no longer showing in sales search results, along with numerous others in the same area that I know sold because they used to be there.

A lot of people now have a false sense of security.

Malcolm says

Either somebody got a deal, or this is the beginning of severe pricing discounts in San Diego County.



This house sold for $205 per foot. It is 70s construction, but it looks like it was somewhat updated. For comparison, I sold for over $400 a foot for $445K last November. My house was under 1,100 square feet. 80s construction, but not even as nice as this house.

These sales aren't always legitimate. Zillow says my neighbors sold their home last year for below market value.... A sold sign never went up and they didn't move.. and a year later they still lived there and have for the last 10 years. I didn't want to be nosy and ask why Zillow listed their home as recently sold for below market value... maybe their parents originally bought it and they bought it from their parents for cheap. This would still register as a sale on Zillow.

Strategist says

Malcolm says

Either somebody got a deal, or this is the beginning of severe pricing discounts in San Diego County.



This house sold for $205 per foot. It is 70s construction, but it looks like it was somewhat updated. For comparison, I sold for over $400 a foot for $445K last November. My house was under 1,100 square feet. 80s construction, but not even as nice as this house.

Anecdotal evidence is not indicative of anything, least of all the beginning of a housing crash.
This is what matter.

https://www.ocregister.com/2018/04/23/southern-california-home-prices-hit-record-highs-in-march-amid-slower-sales/
Southern California home prices soared to...

These below market sales are sometimes anomalies. My neighbors home showed up sold last year on Zillow... but they didn't move and never put a for sale sign up. I assumed maybe their parents originally bought the home for them... and maybe just sold it to them for cheap recently. Pulling 1 random low priced sale is usually not accurate.

Here is a comprehensive sales report for N Co San Diego for February. It is the most current one that I can find.

https://www.mylenemerlo.com/blog/north-county-san-diego-real-estate-market-report-march-2019/

Carlsbad, a very desirable area is really slowing down. The real numbers to watch are how inventory is climbing. They talk about days on market but that is only for the houses that sell. There are many lingering and recent Zillow searches in these areas are showing many many distressed properties, those that are bank owned or pre foreclosure status.

Malcolm says

I HAVE CAUGHT ZILLOW DELIBERATELY DELETING BANK SALES FROM ITS SOLD LISTINGS.

This is obviously at the request of the Realtor bunch. Now it would seem almost no houses are being sold, since the bank sales were the biggest bunch, however, people will be happy to know that the median price is probably still going up because shedding these sales from the database will make conventional sales appear stellar.

If you are curious about a real example, fortunately I had pasted one of them in this thread. It is no longer showing in sales search results, along with numerous others in the same area that I know sold because they used to be there.

A lot of people now have a false sense of security.

I've seen a fake sales on the low end too. My neighbors home showed up on Zillow last summer as "sold"... for about $100K below market value. They didn't move and a for sale or sold sign was never placed in their yard. I didn't ask they, because I didn't want to invade their privacy.. but i assume it was either a zillow mistake.. or maybe their parents had originally bought the home in their name..and just sold it to them recently at a lower than market rate and it showed up as a sale.

Not sure if you can glean too much evidence from some random sales on zillow.... gotta take the median sales prices.

BoomAndBustCycle says

I've seen a fake sales on the low end too. My neighbors home showed up on Zillow last summer as "sold"... for about $100K below market value. They didn't move and a for sale or sold sign was never placed in their yard. I didn't ask they, because I didn't want to invade their privacy.. but i assume it was either a zillow mistake.. or maybe their parents had originally bought the home in their name..and just sold it to them recently at a lower than market rate and it showed up as a sale.

Not sure if you can glean too much evidence from some random sales on zillow.... gotta take the median sales prices.

You are right on most everything you're saying. I would guess your example is an intrafamily transfer of some kind. At the same time, I happened to be researching the latest medians and inventory figures. I was looking for March, but found February. The reason I post particular deals is because someone else asked for specific examples.

So now let's look at the most desirable areas in San Diego's N County area. This search is limited specifically to detached homes. Each and every blue dot is either in pre foreclosure NOD issued, or being auctioned or sold as bank owned.

Proud to see California solidly making the list again.

https://magazine.realtor/daily-news/2019/02/26/where-foreclosures-may-surprisingly-be-picking-up