patrick.net

What do you guys think about this thought process? The 10-yr yield is still only at 4.5%.

Yet 30-YR mortgage rate is going higher because of increasing "risk premium".

All markets are 100% psychological. An improving economy does not mean that "newly created liquidity" will go into real estate. In Japan, I heard that people are using their bonus (often 20% - 25%) to buy stocks.

Will gold be the next bubble? All the gold ever mine in the world worths "only" $2 Trillion. Imagine the excessive liquidity chasing such a small asset gold.

Do not get me wrong, I think gold is even more unproductive than raw land. However, I do think that if the psychology is there, gold can be $1000 an oz before it pops.

Peter would have sushi with anyone. If it isn’t sushi, I’m not so sure.

Actually, I have had too much raw fish this month. I need to take a vacation from sushi.

I forgot to mention Folsom. It’s also a very nice area with good schools, but more expensive. I’ve also seen lots of listings in Cameron Park and Eldorado Hills lately, and I think those area’s are also poised for some declining home values too. I have no idea how the schools rate in those areas, but I think they’re generally considered good.

If Davis is not too far, it can be considered a nice suburb of Sacramento. I stayed there for 4 years and loved it. (disclaimer: I tend to like boring places)

What do you guys think about this thought process? The 10-yr yield is still only at 4.5%.

Also, the bond market is definitely pricing in some risk of a coming recession. The bond market is represented by the smartest money.

We may see some "firming up" a little in spring. However, if the "rally" is lackluster, many will see that as a sign of further weakness.

Come to the party and we will discuss. :)

R Patrick, we probably should nominate you to the Nobel committee. :)

I love the title of this article Overvalued housing markets decline

We need to consider locations soon.

What is the approximate number of attendees? Let's do a quick count:

Peter P: 2

OK though enough about cheeks in the breeze, I went to a large well-known hobby shop today, Sheldon’s Hobbies, more geeky candy than you can shake an R/C controller at, and while looking around, got talking to the lady who runs the place, she says people are buying “a LOT less” this year than last year.

Perhaps I can pick up a Z scale train set for cheap. ;)

I'm won't be able to make the 17th guys. Sister-in-law's engagement party in Sac. Damn. (All of December, and most of January and February is nuked for me. : /)

Cheers,
prat

Perhaps, we can meet separately... I work in Palo Alto as well. :)

A lot of that stuff was bought with HELOC money. I have a friend who deals in coins, and writes books about them, and he said for the last couple of years business has been better than before.

I also wonder how much of Google's revenue is driven by the housing bubble. I am not going to short Google just yet. It would be foolish to stand in front of the train.

So is there a consensus on the hard Vs soft landing? I for one am just so ready to see all those swaggering debtors get their mudflaps pounded.

If you have it in SF or Easy Bay, my wife and I can make it. It needs to be walking distance from BART or other tranist though, as we don't have a car.

I posted a lot about six months ago, but have been mostly just lurking since then.

Here is another article about the housting bubble collapsing:

http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/05_51/b3964052.htm

HARM, dude. You've got some baggage.

Hey Jimbo, good to see you back!

HARM, forgot to say, your portraits had me LOL. I'm sorry you won't be able to make the party.

Head count for me: it looks like it will be me and my husband, so 2, but that's pending childcare. I guess put me down for 1-2.

HARM, this is not the only blog party... we will soon have another one to celebrate. Can anyone give a definitive date?

Really, we will meet soon enough. :)

S Padraig-

Hilarious!

Blog party--did we establish a time?
I'll have business in Sausalito till 1, can meet after then.

Wonder if ScottC still has a job?

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/051207/economic_forecast.html?.v=5

Does thet 800K go away and I now own my house free and clear? Allowing me to sell 6 months later and go and buy the median house somewhere else cash sale?

:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:

Is 1pm to 1:30 pm in SF okay for everyone?

Looks like texas isn't so bubble-proof after all:

http://www.dfw.com/mld/dfw/13388316.htm
Running out of steam

Industry experts say that existing home sales and construction of new ones may slow next year as rising material costs and interest rates may suck the air out of the boom of recent years.

Sorry, ScottC :-( ...

Did I say something really stupid?

No, you said something really entertaining. ;)

Wonder if ScottC still has a job?

Let's be fair to ScottC. He does believe that there is a bubble in California and I do get the impression that he is probably a respectable RE professional. :)

Hey PeterP and SQT! Is it time to start chipping away at a location yet?

Kurt suggested Ferry Building. Is there any place that can accommodate the crowd?

ptiemann, are you coming to the party?

R Patrick,

I always wondered what a bunch of smileys would look like, after hearing what you said, I felt this was a good time.... but like peter said, it was really entertaining....but not as entertaining as ptiemann's link.

Hi, how is everyone doing? Has the bubble burst in the BA yet?

Hey Fake P, are you coming to the blog party this Saturday? If you come, I will get you beer!

Fake P, just to keep you updated, since my "October prediction" did not come true, I will buy you, Jack, and Face Reality free beer.

I will buy you, Jack, and Face Reality free beer.

Well...if it's free, you won't have to buy it.

Well…if it’s free, you won’t have to buy it.

It becomes free only after I buy it... too bad. :)

http://www.ferrybuildingmarketplace.com

Above there is a listing of restaurants at the Ferry Building. Maybe Mijita is the place you are thinking of, Jack? That sounds like a good place, but there are many options. Anyone want to weigh in?

Welcome back, Fake P!

There is also the SF Fish Company.

Is it a food court? We can just choose from large variety of food. :-P

there is a REALLY good Mexican place that is kind of indoor/outdoor as I recall… Maybe Kurt knows the name of it?

Yeah--the name is Mijita, bench seating inside, casual--good food!
It's on the water side of the building, close to the terminal.

There's a few other good places, such as The Slanted Door, but that place is impossible to get into.

Okay, how about Mijita at 1:30?

R Patrick,

I love the "Homeowners Relief Act of 2007"! During Harvey Pitt's brief tenure at the SEC he attempted to restore faith by "making corporate accounting transparent". Yet another lame attempt at fabricating safety nets. The list goes on and on, FDIC, SIPC, etc. etc. In the end, all of the regulatory agencies and all the kings men couldn't put daytraders back together again. The RE Bubble has been given numerous advantages over the stock market bubble, not the least of which, it's close chronology. Rates and tax codes were more than accomodative to give the American Public just what they wanted after a stock market crash. The question is, now that these "kiss me" no risk, no fault, no way to lose parameters have become the norm how can the gov. just step aside and permit fast, loose and easy lenders and their borrowers get exactly what they deserve? Reg. agencies were hardly forgiving when it came to pursuing Wall St. wrongdoers (think Elliot Spitzer here). However when it comes to hearth and home, my guess is that we'll see the gov. bend over backwards to bail out and comfort bruised lenders and "homeowners".

Hey, this is like Ghosts of Threads Past or something. Everyone is checking in again after months away.

Welcome back, Schmend Rick and newsfreak. Good to see you both again. I am starting to feel like the unofficial blog greeter.

Seattledude, this is this thing called "white space"... (kidding...no really!)