patrick.net

joeyjojojunior says

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-is-just-a-normal-polling-error-behind-clinton/
This was written BEFORE the election.

"Even at the end of a presidential campaign, polls don’t perfectly predict the final margin in the election. Sometimes the final polls are quite accurate. An average of national polls in the week before the 2008 election had Barack Obama winning by 7.6 percentage points. He won by 7.3 points. Sometimes, however, the polls miss by more. Four years ago, an average of survey results the week before the election had Obama winning by 1.2 percentage points. He actually beat Mitt Romney by 3.9 points.
If that 2.7-point error doesn’t sound like very much to you, well, it’s very close to what Donald Trump needs to overtake Hillary Clinton in the popular vote. She leads by 3.3 points in our polls-only forecast.
And 2012 isn’t an outlier. For president...

This is Silver hedging his bets.Throughout the campaign he constantly interpreted the polling as giving Trump approximately zero chance of winning.

I'm not sure I follow all the logic here. I think some are arguing the perception of the polls and others are arguing the accuracy of the polls. The polls were accurate based on the margin of error they list on each poll. Doesn't matter how they sample, most polls were within their own stated margin of error. So they admit there will be error and I think most polls were within that margin. I'm not sure what there is to question in that regards. No poll will ever be 100% accurate and I think we can all agree on that. Or at least I hope so.

The perception of the polls being accurate is another question altogether. I don't think you can co-mingle the perception of accurate polls with polls that were actually accurate by the standards of polling. The perception of the polls were skewed by people with agendas and it's your personal choice to soak it up or ignore it. You have to remember that this was a close race between two really bad candidates. Considering the voter remorse and negativity around the election, I'm actually surprised the margin of error on a lot of these polls didn't get blown out of the water.

I'll agree there's now a perception of polls being inaccurate and you're free to question that. I actually think it's good to question data and not just assume it's solid. I'll make a bet though right now. $1k on every single 2nd year major election (presidential and mid-terms). All Federal candidates (President, senators & house members). 5 Days before the election I get the poll leaders and you (anyone) get the field. Whoever wins the most races at the end of that years elections gets $1k from me or I get your $1k. I will make this bet with anyone, every election season until I run out of free cash on hand (I won't).

Gentle Reader,

Horrific or not, I've been entertained.

Regards,
Roidy

PaisleyPattern says

This is Silver hedging his bets.Throughout the campaign he constantly interpreted the polling as giving Trump approximately zero chance of winning.

No he didn't. Please go back and read Nate's writing. . He was banging the drum all season saying the models showing Trump with a 95% chance of winning were crap.

Seriously--you are 100% incorrect. Do some research on your own if you don't believe me.

CIC- again, it's no use having this discussion with you because it's over your head.

If I have a 6 sided die and I say there's only a 16.67% chance it lands on 1, then I roll it and it lands on 1--was I wrong?

Because that's basically what you are saying.

Nate said there's a 30% chance of Trump winning, and he won. Was Nate wrong?

joeyjojojunior says

Was Nate wrong?

Want to explain his E.C. prediction, because that's the ONLY thing that matters? Was that right or wrong?

Sniper says

Want to explain his E.C. prediction, because that's the ONLY thing that matters? Was that right or wrong?

He didn't predict anything. He simply averaged the state's polling data and awarded it to the polling leader.

joeyjojojunior says

PaisleyPattern says

This is Silver hedging his bets.Throughout the campaign he constantly interpreted the polling as giving Trump approximately zero chance of winning.

No he didn't. Please go back and read Nate's writing. . He was banging the drum all season saying the models showing Trump with a 95% chance of winning were crap.

Seriously--you are 100% incorrect. Do some research on your own if you don't believe me.

Here are a few Silver quotes:

I wonder how much of the Trump Bump is just voters trolling pollsters,” Two Good Reasons Not To Take the Donald Trump ‘Surge’ Seriously — July 16, 2015.

“Basically Trump is the Nickelback of presidential candidates. Disliked by most, super popular with a few.” — July 28, 2015

“PREDICTION: Trump won’t be the Republican /nominee.” — Aug. 6, 2015

“Media: Trump’s doing great! Nerds: No. Those polls don’t mean what you think. Media: A new poll shows Trump doing great! Proved you wrong!” — Aug. 9, 2015

“Donald Trump is winning the polls and losing the nomination.” — Aug. 11, 2015

“About 25% of Americans identify as Republican. Donald Trump’s getting about 25% of that 25% in the polls. Why is this impressive to people?” — Nov. 19, 2015

“Dear media, Please stop freaking out about Donald Trump’s polls.” — Nov. 23, 2015.

“As for me, I remain quite skeptical of Trump’s chances. I also think his nomination would be an unmitigated catastrophe for Republicans.” — Nov. 29, 2015

“Idea that ‘Trump would win an election today’ also dubious. If election were today, voters would be more informed and news cycle different.” — Dec. 4, 2015

(in response to Rupert Murdoch tweeting that Trump’s “cross-party appeal” was a “winning strategy”): “Actually, Trump is by far the least popular Republican with independents (and Democrats)”— Jan. 15, 2016

“Wait it’s just now sinking in that Trump might be a wee bit problematic as a general election candidate?” — March 20, 2016

“Trump’s general elex numbers have been terrible since he launched bid. Media barely noticed during 2015 Trumpmania.” — March 29, 2016

“[Idea of Trump being presumptive nominee by mid-May] is delusional. Math doesn’t work.” — April 9, 2016

“The bad news for Trump is that a poll showing him 5 points down is considered good news for Trump.” — June 26, 2016

“Perhaps the worst take is the ‘Trump’s actually doing well to only be down by 7!!!’ take. He’s the least popular major-party nominee ever.” — Aug. 3, 2016

“Trump has been super unpopular with the November electorate pretty much forever.” — Aug. 16, 2016

“Trump is doubling down on a losing strategy.” — Aug. 18, 2016

“[The] most delusional part of Trump thinking he has a silent majority is how small a fraction of the population he’s even bothering to appeal to.” — Aug. 13, 2016

https://www.currentaffairs.org/2016/12/why-you-should-never-ever-listen-to-nate-silver
Is this enough?
This coming from a pollster doesn’t look good. I guess Trump had an incredible surge and just beat Hillary by a nose at the finish line.

PaisleyPattern says

Is this enough?
This coming from a pollster doesn’t look good. I guess Trump had an incredible surge and just beat Hillary by a nose at the finish line.

No--I'm saying actually go to 538 and read some of his articles from late Oct. and early Nov. Don't go to conservative hit piece sites--go to the source and judge for yourself.

That's if you really want to learn something.

joeyjojojunior says

PaisleyPattern says

Is this enough?
This coming from a pollster doesn’t look good. I guess Trump had an incredible surge and just beat Hillary by a nose at the finish line.

No--I'm saying actually go to 538 and read some of his articles from late Oct. and early Nov. Don't go to conservative hit piece sites--go to the source and judge for yourself.

That's if you really want to learn something.

Those are his quotes aren’t they?

Sniper says

joeyjojojunior says

No--I'm saying actually go to 538 and read some of his articles

OK, even Nate said he fucked up, but YOU still won't admit it:


How I Acted Like A Pundit And Screwed Up On Donald Trump
Trump’s nomination shows the need for a more rigorous approach.

By Nate Silver

Filed under 2016 Election
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-i-acted-like-a-pundit-and-screwed-up-on-donald-trump/


Hey Joey the TROLL, what else you got???

This.

joeyjojojunior says

Don't go to conservative hit piece sites-

Like WaPo, are they a conservative hit piece site?

Nate Silver blew it when he missed Trump. Now he really needs to get it right.
..."Silver, 38, had a run of them a few months ago, when it became obvious that his consistent early dismissals of Donald Trump’s chances to be the Republican presidential nominee were flat-out wrong. "
https://www.washingtonpost.com/lifestyle/style/nate-silver-blew-it-when-he-missed-trump-now-he-really-needs-to-get-it-right/2016/10/30/82c1f258-9bab-11e6-b3c9-f662adaa0048_story.html?utm_term=.30430a561dff

achieves some successes

————

How much longer are you going to hold your breath? Oh, I almost forgot. Even though they hold absolute power of all branches of government, they are still thwarted by the media and some wimpy string beans at Berkeley.

Do you realize how this makes you look?

Sniper says

OK, even Nate said he fucked up, but YOU still won't admit it:


How I Acted Like A Pundit And Screwed Up On Donald Trump
Trump’s nomination shows the need for a more rigorous approach.

By Nate Silver

Filed under 2016 Election
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-i-acted-like-a-pundit-and-screwed-up-on-donald-trump

That was the primary. I'm talking general election.

PaisleyPattern says

Those are his quotes aren’t they?

Sure--out of context and very old. Most are 2015 for God's sake.

Look at his writing in Oct and Nov. 2016

Sniper says

Hillary had 90% of the media on her side

That's also BS.

https://www.good.is/articles/hillary-clinton-negative-press
"It’s no secret that, from the moment she announced her candidacy back in April 2015, Hillary Clinton has been bludgeoned by negative media coverage. The email server; the Wall Street speaking fees; the attacks from both Trump and Sanders. I’ve debated with people who legitimately fear she will be imprisoned before the election. Some, despite the venomous dismissal of my rolling eyes, have called her a murderer. Others: an old woman, a plutocrat, a crook, abused by her husband, no backbone to speak of. But if you’ve suspected that there’s a reason people are saying these things—perhaps parroting disproportionately negative stories they’ve consumed in the media over the past year-and-a-half—it turns out you’re right.
A new report released this week by Harvard Kennedy School’s Shorenstein Center on Media, Politics, and Public Policy found Clinton has received far more negative coverage than any other candidate in the race thus far. The study was based on an analysis of news statements from CBS, Fox, the Los Angeles Times, NBC, the New York Times, USA Today, the Wall Street Journal, and the Washington Post."

joeyjojojunior says

PaisleyPattern says

Those are his quotes aren’t they?

Sure--out of context and very old. Most are 2015 for God's sake.

Look at his writing in Oct and Nov. 2016

.

Nate Silver did call it much closer at the end than a lot of others reading the polls.

errc says

achieves some successes

————

How much longer are you going to hold your breath? Oh, I almost forgot. Even though they hold absolute power of all branches of government, they are still thwarted by the media and some wimpy string beans at Berkeley.

Do you realize how this makes you look?

Trump isn’t really a Republican and doesn’t have the support of the Republican Party. That’s why it he isn’t able to push his agenda. The Republicans are blocking him. I believe eventually he will gain support from both sides of the aisle and will begin to move forward.

Trump isn’t really a Republican and doesn’t have the support of the Republican Party. That’s why it he isn’t able to push his agenda. The Republicans are blocking him. I believe eventually he will gain support from both sides of the aisle and will begin to move forward.

The people blocking him most are McCain, Corker and Flake. One has cancer and two are retiring. Trump will soon have control of the party and things will start moving.

Sniper says

Just how deep do you have to dig to find links that support your bullshit? Couldn't you find one on Mother Jones or Think Progress?

It's a Harvard study, you moron.