patrick.net

I'm surprised so many think that a brokered convention is likely.

How come? Everyone talks about how Trump is winning everything so far--but he currently doesn't have 50% of the delegates.

FNWGMOBDVZXDNW 2016 Mar 4, 6:35am

Mostly, b/c many states are winner take all, including OH and FL. Kasich has to win OH and Rubio has to win FL to start. The party will have to spend huge amounts advertising for different people in different places to get this done, and that's hard when we live in such a connected world. The plan seems to be to keep the 3 non Trumpets in the room, but with winner take all states, they will be splitting the non-trump vote.
Those political operatives have studied the maps, though. I haven't. That's why I say I'm surprised instead of saying those guys are idiots and are wrong.

tatupu70 2016 Mar 4, 6:38am

Mostly, b/c many states are winner take all, including OH and FL. Kasich has to win OH and Rubio has to win FL to start. The party will have to spend huge amounts advertising for different people in different places to get this done, and that's hard when we live in such a connected world. The plan seems to be to keep the 3 non Trumpets in the room, but with winner take all states, they will be splitting the non-trump vote.

Except you want to keep Kasich in to win OH and Rubio in to try to win Florida. If Rubio can't win Florida though, I think he is out.

And if Trump loses both FL and OH, then it's almost a given that it's going to be a contested convention.

Then you've got a bunch of closed primaries coming and Cruz tends to perform well there. Personally, I think it's better than 50/50 that's it's a contested convention. Which would be must-see TV.

FNWGMOBDVZXDNW 2016 Mar 4, 7:03am

Personally, I think it's better than 50/50 that's it's a contested convention. Which would be must-see TV.

We can only hope. That is the best shot of the death of the Republican party.

bdrasin 2016 Mar 4, 7:56am

Was I having a bad acid flashback or did Trump brag about his dick size last night? The fact checkers better get to work on that. ..

FNWGMOBDVZXDNW 2016 Mar 4, 8:23am

It was very 'soft' praise coming from the hyperbolic tanning machine aficionado. If he really meant it, he would have proudly announced it was 'Yuge.'

You have to love how inspiring and insightful the Republican debates have become. The only sane candidate left is Kasich, and the only people left on stage who brought useful information were the moderators.

MisdemeanorRebel 2016 Mar 4, 8:35am

We can only hope. That is the best shot of the death of the Republican party.

Yep. Next stop: Destroy the Clinton Wing of the Democratic Party. Bernie was real close there, but the danger has faded a bit.

Done 2016 Mar 4, 8:39am

Graybox says

Trump is bending over the whole establishment both sides playing eye puppets as he rails them all w/o lube...

I really really do enjoy it...... He's going to bone them to the bone then, we might get to see lots of interesting things tumbling out of the closet.
I also love to see all the political correct pussys running around all butt hurt.... Some funny shit I got to admit....

tatupu70 2016 Mar 4, 8:40am

Yep. Next stop: Destroy the Clinton Wing of the Democratic Party. Bernie was real close there, but the danger has faded a bit.

Is there any chance she gets indicted? What does the immunity deal really mean?

MisdemeanorRebel 2016 Mar 4, 8:44am

Is there any chance she gets indicted? What does the immunity deal really mean?

I think she'll be protected as long as possible. If there wasn't a race, the GOP Congress probably would be turning up the heat on the Obama admin big time.

Immunity deal means the person in charge of the emails can tell the investigators anything and no matter what, will not be charged with a crime, even if they were complicit.

This is a big deal, I think.

Really bad. I'm trying to recall if the Wikileaks State Dept. dump happened before or after Clinton set up her server. In any case, there's very little doubt it's been hacked countless times.

tatupu70 2016 Mar 4, 8:50am

Immunity deal means the person in charge of the emails can tell the investigators anything and no matter what, will not be charged with a crime, even if they were complicit.

This is a big deal, I think.

Sorry--I mean if immunity means they have a weak case and are just buttoning everything up or if they are actually building a case against Clinton that they will pursue.

MisdemeanorRebel 2016 Mar 4, 8:53am

Sorry--I mean if immunity means they have a weak case and are just buttoning everything up or if they are actually building a case against Clinton that they will pursue.

The investigation is locked down pretty tight, few leaks or info has come out. FWIW, there are rumors that the FBI agents involved are getting pissed because they've felt they already have more than enough evidence to win a case, much less indict.

tatupu70 2016 Mar 4, 9:04am

The investigation is locked down pretty tight, few leaks or info has come out. FWIW, there are rumors that the FBI agents involved are getting pissed because they've felt they already have more than enough evidence to win a case, much less indict.

I wish they'd get the hell on with it then...

Tenpoundbass 2016 Mar 4, 9:17am

WLM!!!!

I'm getting ready for the Million cracker march now.

zzyzzx 2016 Mar 4, 11:06am

MisdemeanorRebel 2016 Mar 23, 4:42pm

Only by using Common Core math can Kasich win.

Cruz's only hope is to win big in impossible states for himself like NY, CA, or NJ.

As the NYT said a few days before, if Trump continues to pull in his 30s averages, he is the nominee and gets into the convention with enough delegates.

tatupu70 2016 Mar 23, 4:57pm

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/will-donald-trump-clinch-the-republican-nomination-before-the-convention/

Only by using Common Core math can Kasich win.

Cruz's only hope is to win big in impossible states for himself like NY, CA, or NJ.

As the NYT said a few days before, if Trump continues to pull in his 30s averages, he is the nominee and gets into the convention with enough delegates.

Kasich is obviously hoping for a brokered convention, but I think Ryan has put his hand in the ring as the Trump alternative if it comes to that at the convention. Kasich has no chance.

But I disagree that Trump gets the delegates he needs if he keeps at his current pace. It's going to be very close. Here's the most recent analysis that I could find:

and this

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-most-important-states-on-trumps-path-to-1237-delegates/

He's actually 4 delegates behind their pace-and he doesn't reach 1237 in their simulation with the 4 from Utah.

MisdemeanorRebel 2016 Mar 23, 5:15pm

Here is the NYT article from after March 15th. By NJ, if not CA, Trump is the winner.
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/03/16/upshot/trump-cruz-kasich-republican-delegate-lead.html

Kasich is staying in the race of hoping to bleed a few delegates enough away from Trump in "winner-take-most" states.

MisdemeanorRebel 2016 Mar 23, 5:21pm

This also assumes Kasich won't drop out. Which is no problem from Trump, he wins any matchup between himself and Cruz OR Kasich, according to the latest Quinnipiac Poll that came out today. In fact, it would be better for Trump if it was a two-way race.

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/03/2016-republican-poll-trump-cruz-kasich-221111

tatupu70 2016 Mar 23, 5:21pm

Here is the NYT article from after March 15th. By NJ, if not CA, Trump is the winner.

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/03/16/upshot/trump-cruz-kasich-republican-delegate-lead.html

Kasich is staying in the race of hoping to bleed a few delegates enough away from Trump in "winner-take-most" states.

Kasich is an idiot if he's doing that. All he's doing is splitting the non-Trump vote, allowing Trump to win states he wouldn't have won in a 1 on 1 contest.

And I believe the 538 over the NYT simulation. The 538 is open with their assumptions and expected delegates from each state. NYT is too simplified.

MisdemeanorRebel 2016 Mar 23, 5:23pm

http://www.scribd.com/doc/305765837/Ohio-Republican-Party-Rules-9-18-15

Kasich is an idiot if he's doing that. All he's doing is splitting the non-Trump vote, allowing Trump to win states he wouldn't have won in a 1 on 1 contest.

Cruz is the hard crazy, everything is socialist but my farm subsidies, Ten Commandments in every classroom is Job #1 wing.
Kasich is the Goldman-Sachs, MIC country club Republican wing.

This way Trump doesn't win by huge margins in WTM contests in Urban or Rural states against Kasich or Cruz, hoping to bleed just enough delegates here and there away from Trump.

The Goal is to prevent Trump from getting 1237 delegates by hook or by crook - and preferably as short of that as possible.

tatupu70 2016 Mar 23, 6:05pm

Ironman says

Didn't we go over this earlier.... Why do you continue to lie?

Yes, we went over it and I showed you where you are wrong. Yet you post it again as if the discussion never happened. Why do you do that?

How do you not understand what 1 on 1 means?

tatupu70 2016 Mar 23, 6:14pm

The WSJ article is clearly crap as it has Trump winning WI but still not getting enough delegates to win the nomination

Tenpoundbass 2016 Mar 23, 6:20pm

If he gets to Clevland with 1200 delagates, nobody is leaving that convention center until candidate Trump emerges.

This isn't 1976 and now with internet, we know too much. At the end of the day back then, people could still at least pretend it was all on the up and up.

Now we all know it's not. Donald Trump exiting Clevland the winner is the only first step to making Ameirca great again. Any other senario, it's "Break over back on your heads!"
We can't go back to what we had, we all know WAY to much. It's not Nice, and nobody is going to be nice we want Great. Stop the Shit!

MisdemeanorRebel 2016 Mar 23, 6:23pm

The Reason Kasich can't and won't drop out:

Ohio Republican Bylaws require delegates of a drop-out winning Presidential candidate to go to the next place finisher, in this case, Donald Trump

It would put Trump up 66 delegates, and get him much closer to 1237.

Again, not about winning, but about the GOP Establishment maneuvering to a brokered convention by any means necessary.

tatupu70 2016 Mar 23, 6:26pm

Ironman says

Who wins One on One (no Rubio or Kasich)????

So, are you going to continue with your lies??

Hey--you finally figured out what one on one means! Congrats!!

tatupu70 2016 Mar 23, 6:27pm

The Reason Kasich can't and won't drop out:

Ohio State Law requires delegates of a drop-out Presidential candidate to go to the next place finisher, in this case, Donald Trump

It would put Trump up 66 delegates.

Again, not about winning, but about the GOP Establishment maneuvering to a brokered convention by any means necessary.

Now that makes sense.

lostand confused 2016 Mar 23, 7:07pm

I still think Kasich is angling for VP-a Trump Kasich ticket is what we are looking at. Kasich will deliver Ohio and Trump can take care of the rest.

curious2 2016 Mar 23, 7:31pm

lostand confused says

I still think Kasich is angling for VP-a Trump Kasich ticket is what we are looking at. Kasich will deliver Ohio and Trump can take care of the rest.

Ohio Republican Bylaws require delegates of a drop-out winning Presidential candidate to go to the next place finisher, in this case, Donald Trump

That sounds like a deal in preparation for the Convention. Also, their voting bases are reportedly complementary and compatible, differing mainly in education level.

lostand confused 2016 Mar 23, 7:36pm

curious2 says

That sounds like a deal in preparation for the Convention. Also, their voting bases are reportedly complementary and compatible, differing mainly in education level

Plus Kasich is the typical Washington insider and knows it well enough . he will be the perfect foil for trump's bombast and can get things done in the background while trump takes all the credit!!!!

tatupu70 2016 Mar 24, 5:03am

lostand confused says

I still think Kasich is angling for VP-a Trump Kasich ticket is what we are looking at. Kasich will deliver Ohio and Trump can take care of the rest.

This history of VPs delivering their state is not good.

lostand confused 2016 Mar 24, 5:25am

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/04/23/the-overrated-vice-presidential-home-state-effect/?_r=0

This history of VPs delivering their state is not good

This dude has 80% approval rate in his state.

tatupu70 2016 Mar 24, 5:55am

"With that said, it seems likely that the vice presidential nomineeâ€™s effect on his or her home state is normally quite modest â€” perhaps two or three percentage points on average, if a little more in some cases and a little less in others.

To be sure, two or three percentage points in the right swing state is not trivial, but it is probably not enough to outweigh the other strengths and weaknesses that a vice presidential candidate could potentially impart onto the ticket"

In Ohio--2-3 pts might be enough to make a difference, who knows?

Y 2016 Mar 24, 6:05am

This would have never happened if william buckley had used words that everyone understood...

You have to love how inspiring and insightful the Republican debates have become. The only sane candidate left is Kasich, and the only people left on stage who brought useful information were the moderators.

curious2 2016 Mar 25, 1:00am