patrick.net

We got to the 1.60% area I have talked about a lot

Key now, close under 1.60% with next business day follow through and 1.43% in play

Very Key Line for the 10 year

This "Hitler Finds Out About Negative Interest Rates" is amazing. https://vimeo.com/65679960

anonymous says

Logan, what do you realistically see happening on the mortgage rates for the rest of the year ?

I have to stick to my call at the start of the year that the 10 year yield range is 1.60% that is where the down draft lower in yields will go

So we got there today, I think even I saw a print at one point of 1.53%

However, it's all about the close, I think it was 1.64% close today, which was the exact low point close of last year

So, this is my bottom level range right here

What can create a thesis to break this low

1. Negative rates in play this year, we didn't have that last year or in 2013.

(That) would be the thesis used to see a break down.

However, we got to the key level I talked about in my articles and interviews.

So, a close below 1.60% ( allow) some basis point slippage for that...

(Key) Next day follow through action, if you can get those 2 things, then we break to 1.43%

This would be a new area for me as I have used that 1.60% line in the sand last year and this year

1.74% 10 print
22 basis point move from the bottom of yesterday!

This is the real interesting part now with 10's not only wedge getting tight, with negative rates in play the break out to upside looks less and less probably

Without the taper spike in 2013, the real relevant range is 1.60%-2.50%

On another note, get to it folks, time is running out

Japan doesn't even have business cycles any more its in and out recession

“Only 8% of the population have student loan debt higher than $20,000” -DB’s Slok

30% Year over Year print today on purchase applications, this makes it the best start to the year in this cycle and a shot to get total home sales to 6 million

Go back to sleep Logan. Happy Valentine is over.

Strategist says

Go back to sleep Logan. Happy Valentine is over.

Housing starts up in 45 minutes, I always remind myself that 4:00 isn't that bad, I could live in Hawaii and get up much earlier

Logan Mohtashami says

Strategist says

Go back to sleep Logan. Happy Valentine is over.

Housing starts up in 45 minutes, I always remind myself that 4:00 isn't that bad, I could live in Hawaii and get up much earlier

The Caribbean would be easier for you.

Strategist says

The Caribbean would be easier for you.

Maybe for my wife, I will stick to my hometown #Irvine

Same story with starts this entire cycle

Back to Back years of that key channel holding

LEI while meeting expectations, are down back to back months, still no headline recession risk. You need at least 4-6 months down trend with rising claims which after today's numbers we don't have. Claims get to 323K with falling trend LEI and you have something to work with

US core #CPI services price inflation strongest since Oct 2008 + core goods price inflation now much less negative

Picking up here

anonymous says

"comprehensive housing finance reform" that is mentioned at the end of the piece?

One of my old articles in 2012 I said they will never reform Freddie, Fannie and the government will always back housing up because private banks don't have enough capital reserves to be the entire housing market and the mortgage biz is actually a bad biz to be in.