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Republicans are screwed and demographics prove it
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2015 Dec 14, 11:35am 3,058 views 6 comments
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MisdemeanorRebel
2015 Dec 14, 11:47am
However:
1) A small shift in the national vote is all it would take for Republicans to break through Democrats’ supposed “Blue Wall.†If all five of our groups were to shift just 3 percentage points toward the GOP in 2016, Republicans would “flip†Colorado, Florida, Iowa, New Hampshire, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Wisconsin and win 315 electoral votes — almost a mirror image of the 2012 outcome.
2) The power of the Latino vote is frequently overstated. Even if Latino and Asian/other turnout were to plummet to zero, Democrats would still win the Electoral College 283 to 255 — despite losing the popular vote by 2.1 percentage points. That’s because Latino and Asian voters are heavily concentrated in non-competitive states like California, New York and Texas.
3) Sky-high African-American support and engagement is crucial for Democrats. Suppose African-American voters were to return to pre-Obama, 2004 levels of turnout and partisanship (turnout down from 66 percent to 60 percent and support for Democrats down from 93 percent to 88 percent). In that scenario, Democrats would lose Florida, and their overall margin of victory would be cut by more than half in Ohio and Virginia, giving them almost no room for error with other groups.
Just like many first gen immigrant, now middle aged Turks in the Netherlands vote for Geert Wilders to keep out the Bulgarians, Polish, and Romanian competition, many first and second generation Hispanics might vote for Trump on the same grounds.
If Trump wins the nomination, I suggest his immigration plan allows for existing citizens to bring in family members while largely shutting the door the new immigrants. Hispanics, like Blacks, feel the pinch of more immigration.
Also, it would behoove the Republicans to create a Spanish-language Fox Clone, because many Hispanics are social traditionalists.
In other words, Democrats’ coalition of non-white, young and well-educated voters continues to expand every election, while Republicans’ coalition of white, older and less-educated voters keeps shrinking"
Wow! Who could possibly have guessed that the more well read or educated an individual becomes, the more likely they would vote Demo/Progressive/Liberal??? Which triggers another question, is it possible to choke on your own snark?
Also, it would behoove the Republicans to create a Spanish-language Fox Clone, because many Hispanics are social traditionalists
I believe there's fox news latino - if there's a difference between what's presented there vs the wasp one, maybe it's due to a business decision driven by ratings expectations.
Tenpoundbass
2015 Dec 14, 1:16pm
Ha ha ha this election is anti everythign that was 2004 2008 and 2012 election seasons.
That is where that data came from.
From what I can tell it's going to be a Republican landslide regardless who wins.
One of my daughter's the youngest one is voting for Trump. I spoke with my other daughter and her boyfriend Yesterday.
They are anti Trump but Pro Republican. Meaning anythying but a Demcorat for them. They actually registered to beat Hillary and Trump he said.
He then told me how all of the Professors are Liberal(I bet you didn't know that) he tells me, "ME! Mr. Libs Suck!". He then told me how many of his professors are now on this defeat Trump kick. Where they are emploring the Students to register as a Republican and vote anyone but Trump. He wasn't sure who, but he asured me that even Bush was open for his consideration. But he wouldn't tell me who.
Well it's a start, those two will have to work on it a little more. I've been telling them all year since at least May, to register as a Republican. But as soon as Professor boy says to do it, then they are all over it.
Now my youngest She's going to be alright that Kid. Just 19 years old and already knows what a great America looks like.
That's called the FSA (Free Shit Army). Promise them anything FREE, and they'll give you their vote! They carried the last two votes for you know who..
Asians voted for barack in the 71%-73% range and they are the wealthiest of all groups.
Also, it would behoove the Republicans to create a Spanish-language Fox Clone, because many Hispanics are social traditionalists.
I think such a show, which is an excellent idea, should use wealthy and white Spaniards as the hosts, who can trace their lineage back to the conquistadors and early explorers. The format can be the same, with the hottie leg crossers, etc. On the set should be a visible picture illustrating the mutilation of the Indians by the Spaniards. The show should feature Indian servants who are derided constantly by the hosts. It would be a hit!
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-demographics-will-shape-the-2016-election/
"There’s no question that recent demographic trends have aided Democrats enormously. In 1980, Ronald Reagan won 56 percent of all white voters and won election in a 44-state landslide. In 2012, GOP nominee Mitt Romney carried 59 percent of all white voters yet lost decisively. What happened? African-Americans, Latinos, Asians and other non-whites — all overwhelmingly Democratic-leaning groups — rose from 12 percent of voters in 1980 to 28 percent in 2012.
Yet analyses that focus only on race and ethnicity ignore an even more rapid demographic shift driving Democratic success: educational attainment. This is why we have split non-Hispanic white voters into two groups.
In both 2008 and 2012, Republicans’ best group by far — of the five we examined — was white voters without college degrees. The GOP carried that group by 14 percentage points in 2008 and a whopping 26 points in 2012. However, these voters — who skew older and more rural — decline 3 percentage points every four years as a share of the overall electorate. In contrast, white degree-holders — who still lean Republican but are much likelier to support Democrats than whites without a degree — rise a percentage point every four years.
In other words, Democrats’ coalition of non-white, young and well-educated voters continues to expand every election, while Republicans’ coalition of white, older and less-educated voters keeps shrinking"
#politics