patrick.net

Could it be no wage growth in nearly 2 generations? Housing unaffordable to most now? People wary of big debt now?....Hmmm.

I understand why the builders have been building bigger and more costly homes because the demand curve is that area, however, that has to be accepted as the reason why new homes sales have never been this soft post WWII ... not tight lending

Theres has been a 5-10X jump in foreclosure starts on Zillow. Now the NODs are in the year 2015.

Are these folks in trouble only this year, or is this hangover from the Weapons of Financial Wizards?

Entitlemented says

hangover from the Weapons of Financial Wizards?

hangovers, we are still working through over 2 million hangover loan from the bubble years including loan mod re defaults.

First time home buyer metric has always been below 20% for new homes, most new household formation in this cycle has been rental

Logan Mohtashami says

Today’s strong housing start numbers sparked the same rabid fascination from pundits, as a dog jumping into a pool after a tennis ball. We first hear that this is the strongest report we have had in the past few years then the discussion degrades into that same sad song that tight lending is holding housing back. The usual refrain of excuses for why housing isnt what it could be is given by people who don’t understand that main street America simply doesn’t have the income in this cycle to have a Nirvana-like recovery. The responsible economist feels compelled to remind...

Dear Logan,
Please explain why we have historically low construction of new homes?
Also explain why rents are so high?

Strategist says

Dear Logan,

Please explain why we have historically low construction of new homes?

Also explain why rents are so high?

1. People Don't make enough money to own the debt of a home

2. We never built enough rentals for the demographic push of young Americans coming on line this decade so rent inflation is growing stronger than wage growth for years.

Demand balance has been for renting in this cycle not for home ownership since 2005, that will change years 2020-2024, so there is some demand curve help coming years from now

In regard to the dog comment, I always found it very funny that every so months one report comes in stronger and then the same people spend the rest of year
complaining that lending being too tight is holding the cycle up. I cried laughing today as the same characters did it again

these are economist pundit types I am talking about

How is it possible for a graph to go around in a circle?

indigenous says

How is it possible for a graph to go around in a circle?

Price too a hit during the bubble crash creating that circle movement to match with Median Household Income and then just took off again creating another housing inflation phase. Also median income feel as well for this data due to the recession but that hasn't recovered from the previous peak when adjusting to inflation

Ok thanks.

indigenous says

Ok thanks.

The baseline new home is just much bigger now these days, hence why the median price has deviated so much since the year 2000

You are an earlier riser.

Logan Mohtashami says

The baseline new home is just much bigger now these days, hence why the median price has deviated so much since the year 2000

Surely not the only reason?

This just in, will the bubble pop?:

Steen Jakobsen Steen Jakobsen
Chief Economist & CIO / Saxo Bank
Denmark
US GDP forecast:
Atlanta Fed's GDPnow, which have tracked US growth the best of all forward looking indicators have Q2 @ 0.7%!!!!

This is significant different from CONSENSUS of 2.7% accc. to Bloomborg

indigenous says

Surely not the only reason?

It's a big reason because they simply aren't building starter homes which would be priced lower, if the core lot is much higher in sf. the price will always trend higher.

Good example TOL brothers Median selling price is $782,000, they're aren't building 150k-250K starter homes.

Logan Mohtashami says

Strategist says

Dear Logan,


Please explain why we have historically low construction of new homes?


Also explain why rents are so high?

1. People Don't make enough money to own the debt of a home

2. We never built enough rentals for the demographic push of young Americans coming on line this decade so rent inflation is growing stronger than wage growth for years.

Demand balance has been for renting in this cycle not for home ownership since 2005, that will change years 2020-2024, so there is some demand curve help coming years from now

We could afford them all these years. Why don't they just build more affordable homes?

Strategist says

Why don't they just build more affordable homes?

$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ profit margins $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

Builders aren't dumb they know the lower end income scale can't afford housing, too many dual renters in one household, these aren't going to be home buyers ever, unless they marry up with 40% increase in wage inflation with an additional income

Logan Mohtashami says

indigenous says

How is it possible for a graph to go around in a circle?

Price too a hit during the bubble crash creating that circle movement to match with Median Household Income and then just took off again creating another housing inflation phase. Also median income feel as well for this data due to the recession but that hasn't recovered from the previous peak when adjusting to inflation

I'm still confused. Logan, you have attempted to put, what should be, a 3 dimensional chart into a 2 dimensional chart. Median Income, median prices and time. Confusing as hell. Plot a ratio of median prices/median income against time on the Y axis. Even better, just use charts and data from the sites that report economic data.

Strategist says

Confusing as hell.

This isn't shocking :-)

limf(X) =SKY
X-a

Logan Mohtashami says

Strategist says

Why don't they just build more affordable homes?

$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ profit margins $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

Builders aren't dumb they know the lower end income scale can't afford housing, too many dual renters in one household, these aren't going to be home buyers ever, unless they marry up with 40% increase in wage inflation with an additional income

Oh God. Can I buy you a large extra strong coffee from Starbucks?

New sales adjusted to population this late in the economic cycle is dreadful

All this being done at the lowest rate curve post WWII

Hmmm where can we see the deviation model happen on the data line

The tag it to this data line

Strategist says

Can I buy you a large extra strong coffee from Starbucks?

Anyday!

Logan Mohtashami says

New sales adjusted to population this late in the economic cycle is dreadful

The worst is over. The greatest housing boom in the history of the United States is about to descend upon us.
Five years from now, all the so called experts and gurus will tout why the boom was obvious, yet many failed to capitalize on it. I don't plan on being among them. :)

Strategist says

The greatest housing boom in the history of the United States is about to descend upon us.

Demographics look so much better years 2020-2024 but this

"The greatest housing boom in the history of the United States is about to descend upon us"

Is more this

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TD2_NmPevVs&feature=player_embedded

This might help you.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/102694537
Tom Lee: Housing stocks set to double—here's why

Strategist says

Tom Lee: Housing stocks set to double—here's why

Speaking of Tom, I did chat with him yesterday on this and the properly using the right algorithm for housing since litteraly everyone blew on the Wall Street Side of the equation and why rental demand has legs for a few more years.

He understood what I was saying, unlike like other Wall Street Hot Shots

Logan Mohtashami says

What it tells me is, the sum total of all government actions worked in saving housing and the economy from a total collapse. Hopefully, we are at escape velocity to take us to the moon.

Logan Mohtashami says

Builders aren't dumb they know the lower end income scale can't afford housing, too many dual renters in one household, these aren't going to be home buyers ever, unless they marry up with 40% increase in wage inflation with an additional income

With demographics being what they are it would seem those large houses are going to be white elephants down the road.

This from Mish:

Note the actual traffic of prospective buyers vs. sales expectations six months out.
Read more at http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2015/05/another-perspective-on-todays-strong_19.html#3GxQljh1TPm71y7s.99

Strategist says

What it tells me is, the sum total of all government actions worked in saving housing and the economy from a total collapse

You and I will always have a different take on housing data

indigenous says

With demographics being what they are it would seem those large houses are going to be white elephants down the road.

Let me give you two an update on Bigger homes here in So Cal

My parents have been trying to sell their 2,000,000 home now for 70 days

10 feet away from them 2 homes one for

2.5 Million
2.6 Million

Both sold full price cash offer

Similar size, but those homes are new. Chinese buyers and the people that I have seen come to look at my parents home Non English speaking Chinese

Not now but down the road when the Boomers are retired, who is going to afford them, down the road after the Chinese investors no longer have an incentive to buy here?

As per this article, housing will peak in 2024: http://www.dce.harvard.edu/professional/blog/how-use-real-estate-trends-predict-next-housing-bubble