patrick.net

darlag says

He's falling asleep again. Someone wake him up and tell him it's not 2008 anymore.

bubblesitter says

There is no expert that is right on USA housing and economy. May be we should ask Chinese experts about that.

You are finally starting to see things from the bull point of view.
The Chinese think American investments are a bargain that can't be missed. Especially BA.

Strategist says

You are finally starting to see things from the bull point of view.

No where close.

Shiller got something right??? Seriously! - He has been dead wrong for the past 6 years - LOL

The U.S. economy added 288,000 jobs in June, racing past the 212,000 that economists had expected. The U.S. unemployment rate fell to 6.1 percent, the lowest since September 2008, confirming expectations that the economy bounced back in the second quarter after a dismal start to the year.

More jobs mean more potential buyers and renters?

Sam1000 says

didn't this guy just say that housing prices look okay? Looks like this man cannot figure out what he wants to say... yes, if he says both housing is fine and housing is in trouble then one of those predictions is definitely going to be right LMAO!

Um, did you read the article and watch the video? He never says there's a housing bubble. That headline is an utter fabrication. That's why people need to ignore that Yahoo news feed, because Yahoo's got their heads up their asses.

And anyone who doesn't think the stock market is in for a downturn is an idiot.

Strategist says

The Chinese think American investments are a bargain

We sent our money to them...their economy cools down (and meanwhile ours is eviscerated except for those investing in China), their wealthiest people leave with the gold, taking all the underpinnings out of the economy...but suddenly years later, we seem like a good investment?

Strategist says

He's falling asleep again. Someone wake him up and tell him it's not 2008 anymore.

Oh, so we're not at another stock market peak? Is it a "new paradigm" again? LOL. Better sink all your money in the stock market right now. Let us know how that works out.

Homeboy says

Strategist says

He's falling asleep again. Someone wake him up and tell him it's not 2008 anymore.

Oh, so we're not at another stock market peak? Is it a "new paradigm" again? LOL. Better sink all your money in the stock market right now. Let us know how that works out.

You do realize you could short the market and become extremely wealthy if you believe the market is about to crash.

A real question...

If we are in a time of secular stagnation in front of us... low interest rates for the years to come, why shouldn't CAPE be higher than previously in history?

APOCALYPSEFUCKisShostikovitch says

Get with the program, asshole.

CANNIBAL ANARCHY! is our destiny!

FACE!

It's what's for dinner!

FOREVER!

I'm thinking you have a super conservative job that does not allow you to say anything against the party line?

His own graph shows the CAPE going to 44. No reason we can't beat this.
An other 76% gain will send the DOW to 30K.
Before the pigs are slaughtered.

Strategist says

You do realize you could short the market and become extremely wealthy if you believe the market is about to crash.

Wouldn't it be better to just wait for the dip and then take a long position? I don't know anything about short selling; it seems riskier to me and I don't understand the benefit over just waiting for the market to fall.

So you think it'll just keep going up from here? You didn't answer the question.

Homeboy says

Wouldn't it be better to just wait for the dip and then take a long position?

You are assuming that the Fed will be able to continue the charade after the next crash. At some point the musical chairs stops.

I don't think I've ever seen him say anything bullish, always the same gloomy angle. A watch that's broken is still yadda yadda...

indigenous says

You are assuming that the Fed will be able to continue the charade after the next crash. At some point the musical chairs stops.

O.K., so we have Strategist, who thinks the market will never go down again, and you, who thinks the market will never go up again. I think you're both full of shit.

Homeboy says

O.K., so we have Strategist, who thinks the market will never go down again, and you, who thinks the market will never go up again. I think you're both full of shit.

Yea but then there is those pesky facts that keep getting in the way...

Homeboy says

indigenous says

You are assuming that the Fed will be able to continue the charade after the next crash. At some point the musical chairs stops.

O.K., so we have Strategist, who thinks the market will never go down again, and you, who thinks the market will never go up again. I think you're both full of shit.

LOL.
Here's the truth....The market goes up and the market goes down. In the long run it always goes up.
Prove me wrong.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/101810923

U.S. stocks rose on Thursday, lifting the Dow industrials above 17,000, after the government reported the economy created a better-than-expected 288,000 jobs in June and the unemployment rate fell to 6.1 percent.

"I would categorize it as a fantastic number, and a great transition to earnings season next week," said David Lyon, a global investment specialist at JP Morgan Private Bank in San Francisco.

Call it Crazy says

Come on, you know better...

I was giving him the benefit of the doubt. I guess arrogance is only possible with ignorance...

Strategist says

LOL.

Here's the truth....The market goes up and the market goes down. In the long run it always goes up.

Prove me wrong.

Prove YOU wrong? WTF are you talking about. I'M the one who said the market will go up and down. Prove ME wrong.

A little thread history since you seem to have already forgotten.

YOU said Shiller was "falling asleep" and that "it's not 2008 anymore", which would imply that in your mind, Shiller is wrong when he says the market will go down.

I then asked you if you don't think we're at a peak, and you taunted me by saying, "You do realize you could short the market and become extremely wealthy if you believe the market is about to crash." This implies that you don't think the market is going to go down.

I specifically asked you if you thought the market was going to keep going up from here, and you were too much of a pussy to answer.

NOW, you're pretending that you held MY position all along. Troll.

indigenous says

Yea but then there is those pesky facts that keep getting in the way...

You realize you can't BOTH be right, don't you? The market cannot never go up AND always go up. Those are contradictory.

Homeboy says

You realize you can't BOTH be right, don't you?

YUP

Homeboy says

Strategist says

LOL.


Here's the truth....The market goes up and the market goes down. In the long run it always goes up.


Prove me wrong.

Prove YOU wrong? WTF are you talking about. I'M the one who said the market will go up and down. Prove ME wrong.

he he he
" In the long run it always goes up." That's what I meant when I said prove me wrong. Because you seem to be a perma bear who has been believing the market is about to crash for years.

Homeboy says

specifically asked you if you thought the market was going to keep going up from here, and you were too much of a pussy to answer.

I don't know the when the next pull back or crash will come. I do know they WILL come. I expect the market to keep going up, and I expect the homebuilders to outperform the market indexes by a long shot. I am heavily weighted towards the homebuilders. I also expect real estate, especially in California to take a massive jump up in prices.
All those rich Chinese who purchased real estate here will be kissing the American flag on July 4th. :)
@Homeboy
And NO Call Crazy, I haven't started drinking wine early today.

Strategist says

In the long run it always goes up.

Prove me wrong.

It is so easy to prove you wrong: in about 5 billions years the sun will become a red giant, and burn out the earth. Game over.
Which means logically there MUST be a point in between where stocks will not matter anymore and so be worthless (and probably in a lot less than 5 billions years).

The truth is that while the market is on an upward exponential trajectory most of the time, there are times when the exponential breaks down.
And it breaks down on different scales:
- the simple correction
- the bear market
- the depression a la 1929
- the civilization collapse a la roman empire
- the cannibal anarchy

Then, you will learn, nothing will remain.
Survivors will wonder why people were so silly as to think the market always go up in the long term.

Heraclitusstudent says

Strategist says

In the long run it always goes up.


Prove me wrong.

It is so easy to prove you wrong: in about 5 billions years the sun will become a red giant, and burn out the earth. Game over.

Which means logically there MUST be a point in between where stocks will not matter anymore and so be worthless (and probably in a lot less than 5 billions years).

Or if a meteorite wipes us out. Oh, God you just proved me wrong.

Heraclitusstudent says

The truth is that while the market is on an upward exponential trajectory most of the time, there are times when the exponential breaks down.

And it breaks down on different scales:

- the simple correction

- the bear market

- the depression a la 1929

Markets have always come back and gone higher when above happened. Always.

Heraclitusstudent says

- the civilization collapse a la roman empire

- the cannibal anarchy

Won't happen to us. We are civilized.

Strategist says

it always goes up

Be careful of statements that begin with always or never...

Strategist says

Markets have always come back and gone higher when above happened. Always.

You realize if you were 60 in 1929 and lost your retirement, then to you, the market never came back.

This is why you can't say "the market always goes up in the long term".
It's meaningless.

Call it Crazy says

You realize you're NEVER right, don't you?

I'm ALWAYS right. And I know how to use a spell checker.

Strategist says

" In the long run it always goes up." That's what I meant when I said prove me wrong. Because you seem to be a perma bear who has been believing the market is about to crash for years.

What utter bullshit. OF COURSE it goes up in the long run. Duh. However, it's going to go down in the not-so-long run. Prove ME wrong.

Allow me to remind you that I was the one who said I'd rather take a long position in the stock market, and YOU were the one who said I should short the market.

Oh, yeah... huh?

Homeboy says

Call it Crazy says

You realize you're NEVER right, don't you?

I'm ALWAYS right. And I know how to use a spell checker.

I'm always wrong!

I see loads of disagreement above, but I'm sure we all can agree that we are on an unsustainable path to destruction. The hardest thing about any market is picking the dates of growth and crashes. Getting back on track, our government is spending more than it's bringing in, how much longer can that continue? Stock and investment prices are skewed? How long until the correction happens? Real Estate prices are inflated for most of the country, where is the point when owners can no longer sell because buyers cannot afford the prices? The one thing I can say is that these answers are coming somewhere in the next 10 years or less and when they do, it will be very ugly...

mfs.admin says

I see loads of disagreement above, but I'm sure we all can agree that we are on an unsustainable path to destruction.

Oh God. Another bad prediction.

Call it Crazy says

So why do you keep doing that??

Oh, I know, you're NOT rational!!

You actually believe you're being clever, don't you? Wow, dude.

Merrill Lynch, who would obviously benefit somewhat from such a statement, said in 401k presentations years ago that there was no 17 year period where someone investing in the Dow would lose money. That included any Great Depression year.

So in one example above, it would seem to be correct unless the person lived to be 77 years old. Be careful with your money once you start approaching the end of life. The stock market is for long term. Long term these days means more than 40 years.

FunTime says

Merrill Lynch, who would obviously benefit somewhat from such a statement, said in 401k presentations

The shittiest 401k plan I've ever seen was run by Merrill Lynch. It likely violated ERISA if someone were to sue over it. The fees were ridiculous.

Merril Lynch talked the Orange County controller into investing county money in derivatives which resulted in OC declaring bankruptcy.

I wonder if B of A is happy they bought them.

indigenous says

I wonder if B of A is happy they bought them.

As I remember it, reports and documentaries on the 2008 falling of the house of cards, B of A wasn't happy WHEN they bought them. Agree and doubt that's changed.