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SF Real Estate Overpriced? I don't think so


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2013 Aug 17, 2:27am   24,610 views  51 comments

by Buster   ➕follow (0)   💰tip   ignore  

I am admittedly a geography nerd to the 10th degree. There is a great deal of hand wringing about the 'over-priced' real estate in San Francisco. Actually, I believe it is still a bargain. Folks often make illogical comparisons. Such as why does average real estate cost upwards of $1000/SF in San Francisco, but $80/SF in a place such as Nashville, TN? Many think that because RE costs 10x more in SF vs Nashville, that real estate here is over-priced. But when you consider that venture capital investment here is hundreds of times more, than it puts a different spin on things....

http://www.theatlanticcities.com/jobs-and-economy/2013/08/why-san-francisco-may-be-new-silicon-valley/6295/

#housing

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41   dunnross   2013 Aug 18, 1:22pm  

David Losh says

Cities have jobs, number one, but some cities, like Paris, New York, London, Mumbai, and San Francisco have financial centers.

I hope not to disturb your wet dream, but San Francisco is not a financial capital of the world. Ever heard of the Chicago Board of Trade or the Mercantile Exchange. Those institutions are much much bigger than anything San Francisco has. By that token RE prices in Chicago must be, at least, double of those in San Francisco.

42   dunnross   2013 Aug 18, 1:25pm  

Call it Crazy says

how do you get a half a million from a 235K listed trade???

That's because he's been getting math lessons from the phoenix math professor.

43   Bigsby   2013 Aug 18, 6:57pm  

dunnross says

Call it Crazy says

how do you get a half a million from a 235K listed trade???

That's because he's been getting math lessons from the phoenix math professor.

Or maybe because you said you sold half your stake in gold with that sale! Odd that you would forget that, or should I have said 470k instead of rounding it up?

44   dunnross   2013 Aug 18, 11:54pm  

Bigsby says

Or maybe because you said you sold half your stake in gold with that sale! Odd that you would forget that, or should I have said 470k instead of rounding it up?

No, the 1/2 sale was separate, and that was done several weeks earlier. Unfortunately, the Etrade records don't go that far back in history.

45   David Losh   2013 Aug 19, 12:58am  

dunnross says

I hope not to disturb your wet dream, but San Francisco is not a financial capital of the world.

So, that does explain that, you are completely delusional.

You can go anywhere in the world and they know where San Francisco is.

You didn't need to pull Chicago out of your ass, you could have just said Las Angeles. You could say anything, but here is the dynamic.

San Francisco is where old money, and new went for the lifestyle, the convenience, and prestige.

Let's concentrate on the term prestige. People buy addresses.

I'm dollars ahead if I buy New York, or San Francisco as opposed to Chicago.

46   CDon   2013 Aug 19, 4:57am  

dunnross says

And I am not making any predictions

You may not be now, but you do have a history of making some of the most outlandish calls on this board.

/?p=651978

About one year ago, I asked if you still stood 100% behind this call (1975 nominal prices by 2014), and at the time you said...

dunnross says

CDon says



Seeing as its now 18 months later, do you still stand by this prediction 100%, or is it now time to start distancing yourself from this call?

/?p=1216267&page=2#comments

So, im curious - now that another 12 months has passed, do you want to double down on that 2014 call, or perhaps are you ready to start distancing yourself from it?

47   CDon   2013 Aug 19, 5:00am  

Sorry, heres the whole thing

dunnross says

CDon says



Seeing as its now 18 months later, do you still stand by this prediction 100%, or is it now time to start distancing yourself from this call?


Yes, I still stand by it. Don't forget that prices in some cities such as Detroit, Cleveland are already at 1975 levels, so some of the cities have already reached my level of prediction.

So again, as we stand here now on the eve of 2014, do you want to double down and say yes we still are going to hit 1975 nominal prices by 2014, or do you want to start distancing yourself from that call?

/?p=651978

48   exfatguy   2013 Aug 19, 5:02am  

Manipulated markets don't need a normal. Housing is never going to go down.

49   Bigsby   2013 Aug 19, 6:23am  

dunnross says

Bigsby says

Or maybe because you said you sold half your stake in gold with that sale! Odd that you would forget that, or should I have said 470k instead of rounding it up?

No, the 1/2 sale was separate, and that was done several weeks earlier. Unfortunately, the Etrade records don't go that far back in history.

That's not the way you described it above. You clearly stated you sold half your holdings and kept the other half. If you then post a $235k deal from back in 2011 as proof of that...
And more to the point, if you did the 1/2 sale earlier and then sold 235k several weeks later, then it rather sounds like you had a lot more than 500k in gold...

50   mell   2013 Aug 19, 11:51am  

donjumpsuit says

exfatguy says

Manipulated markets don't need a normal. Housing is never going to go down.

I agree.

60% all cash,

Most others, some ratio north of 20%.

Nobody who is all cash in a house is selling for a loss, even in a down market.

Why would you sell for a loss, when you can rent and make a annual profit while waiting out equity or the market to return.

To a certain extent yes, but we will see them drop again, nobody wants to sit in dead money either and rents will be capped by what people can afford. Then there is upkeep..

51   B.A.C.A.H.   2013 Aug 19, 3:48pm  

Oh jeez dunross just move toShangri-La Chicago already!

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