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Interest Rates Are Rising-No Problem?


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2013 Aug 8, 1:44am   8,706 views  53 comments

by smaulgld   ➕follow (4)   💰tip   ignore  

No problem if rates are rising because the economy is improving.

But it is not.

Podcast:

http://smaulgld.com/why-interest-rates-are-rising-podcast-8-2-13/

#investing

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41   David Losh   2013 Aug 13, 4:33am  

smaulgld says

Interesting take-would in that case mean that the speculation in real estate would stop too?

What has happened before is that the lenders make loans based on the value of the property with some leeway towards the promise to pay. When the property is foreclosed it goes to auction or is sold as a REO.

The property values are what got screwed up, but nothing a little mortgage magic can't fix.

These rentals that have been bought can be converted to special financing loans that are held in portfolios. In a few years the loans will be upgraded, and sold to other investors.

We'll have a correction in the market place, but it will bring back home ownership.

42   B.A.C.A.H.   2013 Aug 13, 4:45am  

REpro says

What is so enthusiastic about some growth in economy? It means little or nothing for middle class.

Quit it with the middle class thing. There is the 1% and the working class ( many who are out of work).

43   smaulgld   2013 Aug 13, 5:05am  

DavidLoash:

"We'll have a correction in the market place, but it will bring back home ownership.

"

Yes this little episode of rising home prices
makes homes less affordable and creates wealth disparity http://smaulgld.com/the-dark-side-of-rising-home-prices/

44   Heraclitusstudent   2013 Aug 13, 5:13am  

smaulgld says

The price of the ten year note is up 4% today- to kenynesians they say not to worry - its a sign of a growing economy!

Yep 4% a day! Its a sign the Fed may not longer be the purchaser of near only resort of US tbond

It's up 0.12% to where it was 12 days ago.
The percent rise of a percent is second derivative that can fluctuate without much real changes.

It's mostly a sign of foolish optimism.
The whole economy is relying on a tenuous housing rebound that could fizzle out quickly for no particular good reason.

45   smaulgld   2013 Aug 13, 5:24am  

Heraclitusstudent says

smaulgld says

The whole economy is relying on a tenuous housing rebound that could fizzle out quickly for no particular good reason.

that's it

ditto for the stock market and the "recovery'' will be gone as its nothing more than artificially pumped up real estate and stock markets, there is no long term productivity or infrastructure gains

46   Analyzer   2013 Aug 13, 6:11am  

REpro says

robertoaribas says



Fed is tapering, because the economy is becoming more robust. They have quite a bit of more timely info than we do, from the beige book and other sources. They are predicting around 2.5% gdp growth for the second half of 2013, after 1.7 rate first quarter and 1.1 rate second quarter. That bodes reasonably well for a much better 2014.


What is so enthusiastic about some growth in economy? It means little or nothing for middle class. Most corp. income is created oversees, or by higher work load on existing workers, or part-time employee with limited benefits. The REAL growth is only in field of oil and gas exploration. Create real domestic jobs and temper increase in energy costs.

How about we end QE today as a litmus test and find out where we really are?

47   David Losh   2013 Aug 13, 6:59am  

smaulgld says

Yes this little episode of rising home prices

OK, you lost me here.

Real Estate is like stocks only much harder to move. Some properties are good, some are worthless.

The trick is to know the difference.

Bernanke can say whatever he wants, it makes no difference to what you, the individual can buy, and sell.

At the very top of the market there was a house for sale that had one of those hitching posts outside. The owner obviously didn't care about who would be looking at the house, and the house just sat there.

I had a listing where the owner accepted an offer, then wouldn't sign off on getting the agreed to repairs done. It didn't sell for years, but I thought it was a great deal.

There is a deal a day in Real Estate, and if you don't like your market you can move out a few miles.

You can always build wealth, it's up to the other guy to watch out for themselves.

48   smaulgld   2013 Aug 13, 7:06am  

David the real estate market can be driven higher by Fed policy but only so high as there needs to be favorably lending standards and a good employment situation.

The Fed can much more easily juice the stock market as there technically is no limit to what people might pay for a share of X corporation-income,lending standards and employment don't factor into stock prices.

As quickly as both the stock and real estate market have risen based on no real fundamentals, other than artificially low interest rates, they can fall just the same based on rising interest rates

49   mell   2013 Aug 13, 12:06pm  

robertoaribas says

I put your text into a random sentence generator, pretty much seems the same to me...

Day in Real Estate and if you can say whatever he wants It didn't sell for themselves.

Bernanke can always build wealth it's up to move.

Offer then wouldn't sign off on getting the owner obviously didn't sell for years but I had a few miles.

Sat there was a day in Real Estate is like your market There.

Reads like the Fed minutes ;)

50   David Losh   2013 Aug 14, 4:24am  

Bob, you are making more sense now, keep it up.

51   smaulgld   2013 Aug 26, 11:03am  

after Friday's new home report- anyone thing rising interest rates don't matter?

52   Bubbabeefcake   2013 Aug 26, 11:19am  

smaulgld says

after Friday's new home report- anyone thing rising interest rates don't matter?

...WILL matter once rates exponentially start eating Benny Boy ALIVE!

53   smaulgld   2013 Aug 26, 11:26am  

Bubbabear says

smaulgld says

after Friday's new home report- anyone thing rising interest rates don't matter?

...WILL matter once rates exponentially start eating Benny Boy ALIVE!

Then, what does he do? Print into over drive to stop them from rising further?

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