patrick.net

Numbers out today from MBA:

The Refinance Index decreased 1 percent from the previous week driven by a 12 percent drop in the Government Refinance index while the Conventional Refinance index rose by 2 percent. The Refinance Index is at the lowest level since July 2011. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 2 percent from one week earlier.

A better chart to reflect the higher rate impact on purchase apps

I like the godzilla & monster picture. :)

the part time vs full time graph is also very telling.

so incomes are flat or down. # of employed is down, # of houses is up, new housing starts is down ...

wonder which way home prices is gonna go ? (long term) soon as banks get solvent enough to do mass foreclosures ... we will be in for a rocky ride

Alex Rademacher says

wonder which way home prices is gonna go ?

Rates will continue to climb followed by supply / demand reversal...

Per LPS: Today

June “First Look” Mortgage Report: After Five Consecutive Months of Declines, Delinquency Rate Sees Seasonal Spike of Nearly 10 Percent
LPS’ June “First Look” Mortgage Report: After Five Consecutive Months of Declines, Delinquency Rate Sees Seasonal Spike of Nearly 10 Percent

Number of properties that are 30 or more days past due, but not in foreclosure: (A) 3,328,000

Number of properties that are 90 or more days delinquent, but not in foreclosure: 1,345,000

Number of properties in foreclosure pre-sale inventory: (B) 1,458,000

Number of properties that are 30 or more days delinquent or in foreclosure: (A+B) 4,785,000

The timeline to get these homes to market is just too long.
Plus with the Robo signing settlement and the CA home ownership Act in place. A loan Mod and short sale will be the first 2 lines of options before foreclosure

judicial timeline are still long as well

tatupu70 says

Logan Mohtashami says

With this trend we could see 7.5 months of on sale inventory in 2014

So... in this thread, you predicted 7.5 months of inventory in 2014. How did that turn out?

Also, at least at this time, you seemed to know that high inventory would be bad for prices, but now you claim something different, that today's low inventory doesn't matter.

seriously, you are an empty suit. Look good, know nothing!

youareworthless says

that today's low inventory

Today's under 6 month inventory gives legs to pricing

But the context of the discussion was ..... People have used the low inventory to say that is why housing demand has been held back in this cycle.

My thesis is very simple

We have

Higher inventory
Lower rates
Higher Wages
Long expansion growth cycle

Still... demand is much less now than in housing ....

Come on you're better than this....give me something more juicy