patrick.net

robertoaribas says

David Losh

As always, thank you for mentioning me by name.

robertoaribas says

more blabbering nonsense from the patrick.net village idiot.

I thought that the economic crisis would kill off some lenders, the Fed would step in, and we would have run away inflation.

Inflation hasn't happened. In Bernanke's last testimony he hinted that the Fed would like to have 2% inflation. Wowser!

The fear is that after the Fed stops the Quantitative Easing of the monetary policy we will have deflation.

This means nothing to you, and it shouldn't, so I don't see why you keep coming onto a housing bubble blog getting all upset.

To a guy like me who buys properties to sell them a flat market gets me no returns.

The housing market by everything I read is 30% above the bottom we had after the crash, big whoop. The going return on a flip is $20K, another big whoop.

If you have properties that are up 100%, great, sell, and buy more, another big whoop, because I think the rental market is tired, worn out, and tapped out.

One of my big time builder buddies is renting rooms, at the University, and surrounding areas to make profits while he finishes building out his town home projects.

I mean really, Bob, you are a school teacher, who has no interest in Real Estate other than reading some books about Real Estate investing, I guess, because so far you have nothing to say other than insults.

The bears here have been 100% right. You may be a special case, but across the country Real Estate has tanked, and taken billions of dollars from millions of people.

robertoaribas says

I insult you, because you are so mind numblingly stupid,

Bob, you insult everybody.

How do you only have $6000 cash flow out of 15 properties, and only 6 mortgages?

robertoaribas says

how are you upside down on your home,

I have kindly, and completely, answered all of your questions repeatedly.

So, why not answer the simple question of why your rental income is so low.

BTW how about this link? http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2013/07/so-you-want-to-be-a-landlord/

robertoaribas says

How many toilets and floors do you clean to make $6000 a month?

Rough calculation is 26 regularly scheduled cleaning clients.

The Professor says

REpro says

US Gov. can reduce public debt by paying off Treasure until maturity or by Buying back Treasure they issued. (Just like public comp. can buy its own stocks from open market).

When is that going to happen?

When economy improve significantly or we have double digit inflation. They have no intention to pay-off it completely. Military corporations for sure will create another reason to borrow money.

The Professor says

REpro says

They have no intention to pay-off it completely.

Really?

Try to find how many countries in the world have no public debt.
Public debt is a part of financial balance sheet and reflects credibility of economy.

The Professor says

REpro says

Public debt is a part of financial balance sheet and reflects credibility of economy.

Really? So more debt makes us more credible? What if our debt reached our GDP?

Some…public debt is good - not huge one.

Like people without any debt installment or who don’t use credit card, represent unknown risk to banks.

The Professor says

Really? So more debt makes us more credible? What if our debt reached our GDP?

This is really a tough issue, and I hear what you are saying, but we can exceed our GDP with debt.

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/country-list/government-debt-to-gdp

It has to do with the ability to pay the debt down, or off. The United States has a lot of potential to pay off debt, and so far there is nothing to indicate we won't except for Congressional in fighting.

David Losh says

The Professor says

Really? So more debt makes us more credible? What if our debt reached our GDP?

This is really a tough issue, and I hear what you are saying, but we can exceed our GDP with debt.

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/country-list/government-debt-to-gdp

It has to do with the ability to pay the debt down, or off. The United States has a lot of potential to pay off debt, and so far there is nothing to indicate we won't except for Congressional in fighting.

That's the point. The debt will keep going up until it becomes unpayable. GDP is just a number, crossing it means nothing. As long as we keep the faith in our wise and honest gov't (and we do) the debt (and the market) will keep going up.

still1bear says

That's the point. The debt will keep going up until it becomes unpayable

At which point they will confiscate your property and bank accounts.

GDP is now irrelevant. We have become Japan economically.

David Losh says

This is really a tough issue, and I hear what you are saying, but we can exceed our GDP with debt.

If balance sheets are the best "THEY HAVE LOOKED IN 20 YEARS" why do they REFUSE TO HIRE!?

FULL TIME Employment should be at an ALL TIME HIGH!

Oh why not! because we HAVE BECOME JAPAN!

puhim says

all that reduced leverage is now with the Fed and the US taxpayers... heck of a free market financial model you are touting..

Where are the Jobs? Full time jobs?

130k in 6 months is a JOKE! Like this economy.

kmo722 says

all that reduced leverage is now with the Fed and the US taxpayers... heck of a free market financial model you are touting..

What free market?

David Losh says

his is really a tough issue, and I hear what you are saying, but we can exceed our GDP with debt.

I do get a chuckle out of that debt to GDP figure.. like GDP is somehow a rock solid figure.. debt is.. debt is for real.. show me the debt to exports or to manufacturing output... US GDP is largely dependent on on consumer services and consumption which is largely dependent on the direction of housing prices and that wealth effect euphoria that follows.. very temporary.. US manufacturing output dropped by about $1T or 20% in just one year from 2008 to 2009.. Construction had a similar massive drop.. debt will be the U.S. undoing eventually.. no different than household.. Bernanke's long term plan, if he even has one, will surely fail..

puhim says

still1bear says

That's the point. The debt will keep going up until it becomes unpayable

At which point they will confiscate your property and bank accounts.

Not quite. They will confiscate it mostly by inflation and taxation of the "rich" (i.e. middle class). In some cases (if Cypress is any indication) they will introduce some managed failures. I don't expect outright confiscation and bolshevik revolution. We will find our own road to serfdom.

If it could happen in Canada then what?

The Confiscation of Savings in Canada? Cyprus-Style “Bail-Ins” Proposed by Ottawa Government

http://www.globalresearch.ca/the-confiscation-of-savings-in-canada-cyprus-style-bail-ins-proposed-by-ottawa-government/5329263

kmo722 says

Bernanke's long term plan, if he even has one, will surely fail..

His plan is the same as Japan's is with the big difference USA is the reserve currency!

http://www.cnbc.com/id/47990564
http://www.smh.com.au/money/japan-prepares-to-print-more-money-20130416-2hxdk.html

but for how long!

Guess who is pushing for SDR's!

http://www.imf.org/external/np/pp/eng/2011/010711a.pdf
3. The mechanics of SDR creation are relevant to their potential to facilitate inflation.

3. The mechanics of SDR creation are relevant to their potential to facilitate inflation.
SDRs are created by a Fund decision and credited to member countries in proportion to each country’s quota at the IMF. The allocation per se has no monetary effect, simply providing participants’ monetary authorities (usually ministries of finance or central banks depending on the domestic arrangements) with an additional contingent claim on SDR Department participants—contingent, since use of SDRs under the designation mechanism requires a balance of payments or reserve position need (Article XIX.3). Such creation does not by itself create demand for goods and services. That will occur, for example, if the ministry of finance “sells” its SDRs to the national central bank (which are often subordinate to finance ministries) for domestic currency, and then spends the proceeds, a possibility discussed below.

4. A country uses its SDRs by exchanging them with another holder for a “freely usable
currency”. In practice this means overwhelmingly U.S. dollars or euros, although other
currencies may be used, and the list may grow in the future, as more currencies become more widely used and traded internationally. If dollars or euros are provided by countries other than the United States or a member of the Eurozone, there will be no monetary effect; these foreign exchange reserves are simply transferred from one country to another. If the United States is requested to provide the dollars, there is in the first instance no credit creation by the implementing agency, the Treasury’s Exchange Stabilization Fund (ESF).

puhim says

If it could happen in Canada then what?

The Confiscation of Savings in Canada? Cyprus-Style “Bail-Ins” Proposed by Ottawa Government

http://www.globalresearch.ca/the-confiscation-of-savings-in-canada-cyprus-style-bail-ins-proposed-by-ottawa-government/5329263

It can happen in any Western democracy. OTOH, letting uninsured deposits (over $100K) go to hell is not all that bad. It will wake up some people that are still sleeping. I personally never keep more than $40K in a bank.

puhim says

His plan is the same as Japan's

Japan mimicked Bernanke.

See, this was another good comment with something to say. It isn't happening, and the $45Billion kind of sounds like a drop in the bucket, and doesn't address the Derivatives market which is $1Quadrillion? or how much is it today?

David Losh says

puhim says

His plan is the same as Japan's

Japan mimicked Bernanke.

See, this was another good comment with something to say. It isn't happening, and the $45Billion kind of sounds like a drop in the bucket, and doesn't address the Derivatives market which is $1Quadrillion? or how much is it today?

Oh dear, yet another person trotting out the notional value of the derivatives market.

Case Shiller out today, for May, finally confirms market is tanking hard.

Oh ... wait a minute ...

Rew says

Case Shiller out today, for May, finally confirms market is tanking hard.

Oh ... wait a minute ...

Oh...wait a minute ...'irrational exuberance' --again!

http://money.cnn.com/2005/01/13/real_estate/realestate_shiller1_0502/

Bubbabear says

Rew says

Case Shiller out today, for May, finally confirms market is tanking hard.

Oh ... wait a minute ...

Oh...wait a minute ...'irrational exuberance' --again!

http://money.cnn.com/2005/01/13/real_estate/realestate_shiller1_0502/

Interest rates up, stock market up, growth up, un-employment down, inventory down, demand steady/growing, prices up.

The end is near! It cannot continue!

Bigsby says

Oh dear, yet another person trotting out the notional value of the derivatives market.

You are having a hard time making an argument for anything.

What's the cash value of the notional value?

It's much more than $45 Billion, and probably closer to Trillions of dollars.

What I suspect is that once all the dealing is done The global economy will still be awash in cash.

Rew says

The end is near! It cannot continue!

It can continue, well the stock market can continue, but the price of property is dependent on that demand. People have to buy the property, then pay for it.

In Seattle the low tier, the bottom of the market, is $273K. The upper tier is only $483K. The upper tier looks like a better deal to me, and it seems that once again the lower tier will get hammered.

I don't really care, but it looks kind of like the last time in 2008.

Rew says

It cannot continue!

The command economy will continue only up until it can no longer continue....

robertoaribas says

sez the guy who thought it would go down in 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013...

What I said in 2012 is that prices would rise with a 1% drop in interest rates.

We haven't hit the drop in prices yet. It's a Fed thing like I think a dozen others have told you.

Bob, please, try to stay up.

I stand corrected, up until this post there were some properties I was encouraging people to buy: http://buyingseattlerealestate.com/2012/08/04/rising-real-estate-prices/

After this drop in interest rates we began seeing the market increase dramatically.

So, seriously, it's only been a year? Wow!

David Losh says

Bigsby says

Oh dear, yet another person trotting out the notional value of the derivatives market.

You are having a hard time making an argument for anything.

What's the cash value of the notional value?

It's much more than $45 Billion, and probably closer to Trillions of dollars.

What I suspect is that once all the dealing is done The global economy will still be awash in cash.

Says the person using the notional value of the derivatives market to argue his point.

Bigsby says

Says the person using the notional value of the derivatives market to argue his point.

and the cash value is?

If you have something to present, great, would love to read it.

I personally think the economy, the global economy even, has plenty of money in it, and we don't need, none of the governments need, to prop up the banking industry any longer. '

Any thoughts?

David Losh says

Bigsby says

Says the person using the notional value of the derivatives market to argue his point.

and the cash value is?

If you have something to present, great, would love to read it.

I personally think the economy, the global economy even, has plenty of money in it, and we don't need, none of the governments need, to prop up the banking industry any longer. '

Any thoughts?

That's a ridiculous question. We are talking about the derivatives market. It is impossible to state the real cash value, which is why people mistakenly toss around the notional value as if it was the same thing. It isn't.

Bigsby says

That's a ridiculous question. We are talking about the derivatives market. It is impossible to state the real cash value, which is why people mistakenly toss around the notional value as if it was the same thing. It isn't.

robertoaribas says

and one more, just to show your brilliance, "In 2006 I bought a home." good timing douche!!!

I sold the 2006 house for a $64K profit.

I buy to sell properties, so yeah, those were the years.

Now, not so much as the link you provided explains. Too many flippers in the market today have eroded the profits.

Cash is what it is all about, having cash, and opportunities for that cash.

That's why I don't see why governments are still propping up banks concerning mortgages. Banks, I think, have more than enough cash to continue making profits.

The Derivative's market may be all funny money, but I think there is a cash value in there.

Notional value matters. Notional value is equal to the underlying asset upon which the derivative is based and not some speculative value of the paper itself. If the underlying asset goes bad, the entire derivative can be compromised. Also a toxic derivative theoretically puts at risk orders of magnitude more money than the investors actually ponied up.

Warren Buffet is the one who called them Financial WMD's - not some small housing blogger.

Watch the new exchange traded "rental" funds drop by huge perecentages week by week. That is the artificial home buyer demand simply disappearing.

Yep. Witness the following:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-08-01/scramble-exit-housing-market-peaks-american-homes-4-rent-ipo-pricing-44-discount

robertoaribas says

he same zerohedgehog that said housing would collapse in 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013...

what ever could go wrong with one of their astute observations? especially the spiky headed douche bag?

it makes sense. prices should be allowed to correct. but NO Obama had to mess with prices.. tax rebates and lots of mortgage reductions.... never allowing prices to fall.

we are still pending a correction in SFBA.. way back to 1996 plus inflation.

robertoaribas says

and the great pumpkin will appear!

so what applies to Arizona, So Florida, Vegas, Denver, Chicago and other metros..
does not apply to SFBA ? is that what your saying.. I know,, we are special !

You draw that RED line and called it something other than Inflation to show the trend back to normal.

Seems that the Great Pumpkin did make his rounds in the above states .. but still yet to appear for SFBA andn correct for the 1998-2001 bubble.. you know that bubble Roberto fueled by over valued stock prices in the tech industry. Wanna buy some Ariba stock at 300/share ?

Arizona, Vegas, Denver

Miami