patrick.net

$200T is counting all unfunded liabilities on the infinite horizon and is a gross mathematical error since medicare is simply NOT going to grow to the sky like Kotlikoff asserts.

Plus Kotlikoff is making a fundamental error of analysis of not understanding that the massive gov't spending that's going out is not disappearing into a black hole but, rather, is going to stimulate the shit out of the private sector 2020 - onward.

Kotlikoff is just the typical right-wing crank who does not understand anything. For instance, one policy proposal he has is vouchers for health care.

This is profoundly retarded and would simply serve as a price subsidy, health prices would rise by the amount of the voucher since medical care is provided and priced at what we are willing to pay as consumers and not its provider cost.

But he is right we have to double taxes here. Mostly on the rich, but on everyone.

Don't worry, there's plenty of money in that kitty.

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/CP/

most of the $200T would be paid if we cut that graph in half, back to 2005 levels, the horror.

Plus if we raised taxes across the board, housing rents and housing prices would fall in response.

Well, in theory at least. if they didn't we'd have to start cracking some eggs in the housing sector, another totally corrupted sector of our economy.

Bellingham Bill says

massive gov't spending that's going out is not disappearing into a black hole but, rather, is going to stimulate the shit out of the private sector 2020 - onward

Good, you can always believe in perpetual motion machines. Since the stimulation is perpetual, why don't we do it now? After all Japan and China have been growing perpetually all the way to Pluto.

Bellingham Bill says

that the massive gov't spending that's going out is not disappearing into a black hole but, rather, is going to stimulate the shit out of the private sector 2020 - onward.

Over time the output is always lesser than the input. But what's worse is the first-in-line receivers, the well connected and crony capitalists, banks etc. gain the most from it while the middle class suffers because there is no stable way of capital formation (saving) in light of rising (inflation) prices which causes mandatory gambling and all kinds of distortions.

Bellingham Bill says

For instance, one policy proposal he has is vouchers for health care.

There is no reason not to offer a voucher as an alternative to the standard company or government offered plans. People have very different medical needs and they could shop for the insurer that covers the (for them) most effective treatments for their health issues. It would give people more choice

gsr says

you can always believe in perpetual motion machines

as long as the top 5% of the households are clearing 33%+ of the income, we do not need growth, we need redistribution, from these big winners back into the paycheck economy.

massive medicare and ssa outgoes next decade will be one element of it.

right wing economics has this scare story that medicare is going to be 30% of GDP or whatever. This is simply not going to happen, we will have reforms before then, reforms that do not curtail care but purge the sector of its world-beating economic rents, around $5000 per capita right now.

This is assuming we can first remove all you rightwing nut jobs from the levers of power.

mell says

People have very different medical needs and they could shop

I know this is just repeating the rightwing catechism but it is total bullshit.

health care is not a consumer good that people "shop" for.

Using that silly verb in this context should be clue enough!

Bellingham Bill says

health care is not a consumer good that people "shop" for.

But I do shop (and I'm not the only one), how can you say that I don't? I'd prefer to enroll with UHC as it was the best provider I had so far, unfortunately no company has been offering it since then.

this is not to say the unfunded pension liability is not a big issue, btw.

California alone has hundreds of billions of liability staring us in the face

http://www.ai-cio.com/channel/NEWSMAKERS/Californian_Unfunded_Liabilities__Double_What_We_Thought.html

SSA and Medicare aren't the problems though, well problems that can't be solved with just the application of government power to say what is going to be, like it's done in nearly all first-world nations with a public-private medical sector.

mell says

But I do shop (and I'm not the only one), how can you say that I don't?

Shop is a completely inappropriate description for this market.

To the extent public comparison shopping works, that's what PPACA's exchanges are all about.

This should not be surprising since state exchanges are an AEI idea in the first place.

But the other side of choice is regulation to keep the market open and straight, since health providers hold the whip hand with their guildism and the asymmetrical nature of both actuarial value calculations and present consumer need works against the individual "shopper".

How many people know what actuarial value is? 10, 20?

Hell I don't, really.

The main problem of vouchers is that they become a price support. Sweden has school vouchers, but private schools that take them cannot take more money from the student.

That's the way it should be.

Bellingham Bill says

as long as the top 5% of the households are clearing 33%+ of the income, we do not need growth, we need redistribution, from these big winners back into the paycheck economy

And you believe in fairy tales that government spending redistributes income? The government spending is near 16 trillion, and who has benefited from it? It is those cronies who you refer to as 5%. Do you ever wonder why DC economy has been booming?

Oh, look at China for that matter. All the spending has mostly made bigger gap between rich and poor. Every time you use "stimulus" through government, you add more opportunity for cronies to make money of public, in addition to adding additional debt to the public.

And let's suppose in a hypothetical world, the big money does reach the poor, the inflation will eat everything away for them. The insiders would know that before anyone else and will end up investing on hard assets way before the money trickles down to the poor.

It is not about right or left wing. The government stimulus has always benefited people who are directly connected to the government.

gsr says

It is not about right or left wing. The government stimulus has always benefited people who are directly connected to the government.

Yep.