patrick.net

@swebb Thanks. I had heard that before, but didn't act on it. This year, I have started funding my Roth.

@E-man: Most of what I have in my roth has been there a long time. I think it is probably good for me to go back to funding it. Even with the delay on withdrawals.

Hi bg,
Thanks for asking -- I don’t write as clear as I think I am! An initial question please -- this is the chart that got me started, is the content promptly clear to you, pretending that you hadn’t yet seen any other such of my pages?

Here’s my thinking ... People interested in something as a candidate long-term investment commonly examine its long-term past price history. This is soundly done after inflation-adjustment of US$ prices -- what I have done. For credibility of my charts, see the above URL for the WSJ chart, and this for the NYT chart:
http://www.nytimes.com/imagepages/2006/08/26/weekinreview/27leon_graph2.html

Long-term investors seek increasing prices, of course -- BUT the past is dominated by serial herd behaviors: “Real Homes, Real Dow” at http://www.showrealhist.com/RHandRD.html
Individuals’ experiences were overwhelmingly timing-dependent. People uninformed of these serial herd behaviors are people fooled. This fooling of the people is USA history to date.

Here I wrote
http://occupywallst.org/higher-education-panders-to-intellectual-savagery/
“The public be suckered” is both (1) this track record, and (2) keeping it unseen.
Obviously, these simple price histories are very instructive. Keeping them seldom seen by the people is intellectual savagery.

Basically, I show the past soundly, so that people can do their own thinking ... To me, these charts are very instructive at a glance; I figure that the ‘establishment’ strongly agrees with me -- and therefore nearly never shows them! I like saying that this status quo is ‘education’ as a four letter word.

See just below the first chart here
http://www.showrealhist.com/RD_RJShomes_PSav.html
for latest prices and extrapolated histories.

BTW, Robert Shiller published such inflation-adjusted price histories in book Irrational Exuberance: stocks, early 2000, 1st ed.; and homes, early 2005, 2nd ed. Both books best sellers; Shiller updates data at irrationalexuberance.com/
AND, the ‘establishment’ STILL continues with “The public be suckered”!

bg,
You wrote
I need to know what to do with the cash I am saving. I am not sure how to proceed.
Barclays (888)710-8756 has online savings account, 1%/yr, no minimum, FDIC insured, details convenient. Best safe choice I know of now.
As I believe: bond prices now, and stock prices now, are artificially plenty HIGH, due to Fed manipulating markets -- I avoid such.

Barclays (888)710-8756 has online savings account, 1%/yr, no minimum, FDIC insured, details convenient. Best safe choice I know of now.

If you are putting money in a 1%/yr account, you are losing money to inflation.

bg,
To hopefully aid your understanding of my figuring of indicated overpricings, please see section "Bubbles relative to GDP" near the bottom of
http://www.showrealhist.com/RD_RJShomes_PSav.html