patrick.net

FaithInHim says

And your advice is?????????

Don't Buy, don't buy, don't buy!

dunnross says

FaithInHim says

There are some smoking bargains in CA. You need to buy up now.

Show me one bargain in the bay area which is not in the getto.

We bought one, in Danville.

uomo_senza_nome says

FaithInHim says

No my sir, you do not know what hyper inflation is. It is very reasonable to buy now (excluding CA)

There are many people in Zimbabwe that wish the would have bought a home before their monetary collapse.

LOL, the people closest to the money printer gets the most benefits.

You'd be a total idiot to think that ordinary people would be the first in line to get the printed money.

We're not. Ordinary people are probably the last in line, which is why inflation is STEALTHY.

So no, advising people to take on debt because HI is coming is very very stupid IMO.

Again, you missed the point. Interest rates are super low, so this is the time to TAKE debt out.

bubblesitter says

FaithInHim says

And your advice is?????????

Don't Buy, don't buy, don't buy!

Fail

FaithInHim says

Interest rates are super low, so this is the time to TAKE debt out.

Are you a real estate agent? Patrick has already squashed these myths many times. See point #3 here: http://patrick.net/housing/crash1.html

Do you have any real point?

FaithInHim says

Fail

Who? you? cuz you are not able convince anyone on this thread to buy! LOL.

uomo_senza_nome says

FaithInHim says

Interest rates are super low, so this is the time to TAKE debt out.

Are you a real estate agent? Patrick has already squashed these myths many times. See point #3 here: http://patrick.net/housing/crash1.html

Do you have any real point?

Low house price + low interest rate=buy, buy, buy

FaithInHim says

Low house price + low interest rate=buy, buy, buy

Seriously, is this even a counter argument?

It is logical to think: if interest rates rise, then these "low house prices" that exist now, will go ROCK BOTTOM. An all-cash buyer can then buy a property OUTRIGHT. Prices are supported through more borrowing, and that is not the sign of a real recovery.

The fact that you are urging people to take on more debt shows a lot of what's wrong with this country. You can't have a bubble when people don't put the pedal on the credit accelerator. And Americans are really genuinely stupid.

uomo_senza_nome says

FaithInHim says

Low house price + low interest rate=buy, buy, buy

Seriously, is this even a counter argument?

It is logical to think: if interest rates rise, then these "low house prices" that exist now, will go ROCK BOTTOM. Prices are supported through more borrowing, and that is not the sign of a real recovery.

The fact that you are urging people to take on more debt shows a lot of what's wrong with this country. You can't have a bubble when people don't put the pedal on the credit accelerator.

(sigh)

If a house is properly priced and marketed and is located in a community people want to live in (versus a place where people for whatever reason just happen to end up), it WILL sell.

It's no more complicated than that.

Our house was on the market for about a week. The house at the end of our street is a smaller seventies vintage ranch that smells like mold, was priced in the upper sevens and it went pending in about ten days. That's surreal...but that's how it is here. This isn't Columbus.

Some people will not be able to afford to live here. Over and over and over again, we've discussed this.

I still find it amazing people want to live in Phoenix.... Yeah... nuttin' like living in 110 degree heat for half of the year...

uomo_senza_nome says

FaithInHim says

Low house price + low interest rate=buy, buy, buy

Seriously, is this even a counter argument?

It is logical to think: if interest rates rise, then these "low house prices" that exist now, will go ROCK BOTTOM. An all-cash buyer can then buy a property OUTRIGHT. Prices are supported through more borrowing, and that is not the sign of a real recovery.

Not to mention taxes and maintenance costs will go up, up, up. If anyone really thinks hyperinflation is coming, they should leave the country now while the dollar is still worth something to escape the murderous riots. Hyperinflation leads to violence, and we are a country where everyone is packing heat. That would not end well for anyone, especially the homeowners.

rootvg says

If a house is properly priced and marketed and is located in a community people want to live in (versus a place where people for whatever reason just happen to end up), it WILL sell.

No disagreements there.

rootvg says

Some people will not be able to afford to live here.

That's fine too.

My only gripe is in advising people to take on debt without any logical and reason-based analysis whatsoever. Stating low house prices and low interest rates as the ONLY reason to go buy is moronic.

edvard2 says

I still find it amazing people want to live in Phoenix.... Yeah... nuttin' like living in 110 degree heat for half of the year...

I'll take 110 degree heat for 6 months than live around all the frootloops and ultralibs in the bay area year round.

We still have very clear deflation in house prices. It would be foolish to buy anytime soon.

The Fed would like to inflate housing, but they are not all-powerful. They are limited by the fears of the bond market.

If bond buyers get spooked, they will demand higher interest rates, and housing will continue to fall anyway, because people won't be able to borrow as much at higher rates.

We do have inflation in energy, food, and especially in medical care, but we have deflation in housing at the same time because there is still WAY too much mortgage debt out there, and it continues to default at a good clip.

The real inflation to watch is wage inflation. If wages were spiraling upward, then housing could follow. But I don't see wage inflation at all.

Patrick I'm going to have to disagree with you here. While prices may just kind of bobble around the level they're at for a long time -- I don't think it's a solid statement to say it would be foolish to buy here any time soon.

The job market here is really good. It's extremely easy to find a job both white collar and blue collar that pay well. We're having trouble finding people -- to the point where we are actually stealing people from other cities. To the point where we've tried to hire people and actually been turned down because they had multiple offers. Tech is booming here... again.

I don't think we'll see any massive increase again -- but I do think a healthy appreciation is going to start occurring for the next several years as long as incomes continue to rise (and they are in tech).

edvard2 says

I still find it amazing people want to live in Phoenix.... Yeah... nuttin' like living in 110 degree heat for half of the year...

It's only 110 for like end of June through mid Aug. Drops into the low 100's for remainder. Anything above 105 starts getting really bad. The remainder of our months are just flat out awesome. And if you live into the mountains (i.e., Troon, Mcdowell, Cave Creek, etc), temps drop by 5-10 degrees. I think people live here because you get pretty solid predictable weather year round and it's affordable. As long as it stays considerably more affordable than California -- you will always have tons of people moving here.

bubblesitter says

FaithInHim says

Buy, buy, buy!

LMAO for the boldest statement on this forum. There are a few bulls here and even they haven't said that strongly!

I think he meant buy puts on builders. Buy as much as you can afford. Leverage yourself 20 to 1 and then sit back. :) Much like when people buy a house with little to no down. Seems crazy to do it with derivatives, but everyone is okay with doing it with a mortgage. How much we have been brain washed.

FaithInHim says

And your advice is?????????

Sell if you own, rent if you don't. Take the savings you have and grow it with sound investing. Take the job you have and work to improve your wage and happiness. Then as your savings and wages are growing on top of a dropping housing market, you just pick when you want to join the masses of home owners. Remember, housing at best will hold its value. Don't treat it like this is your wealth engine. It is an asset, that ages, but still stays attractive enough to track to inflation. Use other investment sources to grow your wealth. You might get lucky with a 10 or 20 years period of exuberance in housing, but I completely doubt it at this point. That time has come and gone and many people did make big money. Remember, fools are the last ones to the table and the last to leave the table. Smart money has come and gone. Don't be a donkey and expect the same response in a completely different environment.

RentingForHalfTheCost says

bubblesitter says

FaithInHim says

Buy, buy, buy!

LMAO for the boldest statement on this forum. There are a few bulls here and even they haven't said that strongly!

I think he meant buy puts on builders. Buy as much as you can afford. Leverage yourself 20 to 1 and then sit back. :) Much like when people buy a house with little to no down. Seems crazy to do it with derivatives, but everyone is okay with doing it with a mortgage. How much we have been brain washed.

Leveraging 20 to 1 on a house is nothing like leveraging 20 to 1 on derivatives or stocks because there is no risk of a margin call. I'm not saying that anyone should leverage up on a stupidly overpriced house, but comparing the two is very misleading. If your fixed mortgage payment is lower than rent ( true for much of Phoenix) and you plan on living there for a while, its no big deal if the price drops a little. The bank doesn't call you up demanding more collateral putting you into bankruptcy a la MF Global.

pinchedc says

Leveraging 20 to 1 on a house is nothing like leveraging 20 to 1 on derivatives or stocks because there is no risk of a margin call. I'm not saying that anyone should leverage up on a stupidly overpriced house, but comparing the two is very misleading. If your fixed mortgage payment is lower than rent ( true for much of Phoenix) and you plan on living there for a while, its no big deal if the price drops a little. The bank doesn't call you up demanding more collateral putting you into bankruptcy a la MF Global.

Hmm. Stop paying because of a lost job and you do get the bank calling you up asking for collateral in the form of money. The margin call with a house is foreclosure. You loose your full investment in both cases. 100% of equity. You gamble 20 to 1 and you takes your chances. Many have lost and many more will.

FaithInHim says

I'll take 110 degree heat for 6 months than live around all the frootloops and ultralibs in the bay area year round.

uh... yeahhh. well, whatever. Yeah, on second thought, keep on thinking that. Yeah- you're right... California is one big hell hole cause' its all full of liberals.

I grew up in the heat. If you all like that then great. Personally I think its miserable. Around here its 65-70 most of the year and doesn't rain from April-October.

rootvg says

Show me one bargain in the bay area which is not in the getto.

We bought one, in Danville.

If you think Danville is an island of intolerance/bigotry, how about putting some signs in your yard telling some of your neighbors what you think of them?

B.A.C.A.H. says

rootvg says

Show me one bargain in the bay area which is not in the getto.

We bought one, in Danville.

If you think Danville is an island of intolerance/bigotry, how about putting some signs in your yard telling some of your neighbors what you think of them?

Parts of Danville are complete getto!

FaithInHim says

uomo_senza_nome says

FaithInHim says

No my sir, you do not know what hyper inflation is. It is very reasonable to buy now (excluding CA)

There are many people in Zimbabwe that wish the would have bought a home before their monetary collapse.

LOL, the people closest to the money printer gets the most benefits.

You'd be a total idiot to think that ordinary people would be the first in line to get the printed money.

We're not. Ordinary people are probably the last in line, which is why inflation is STEALTHY.

So no, advising people to take on debt because HI is coming is very very stupid IMO.

Again, you missed the point. Interest rates are super low, so this is the time to TAKE debt out.

They wished to have bought gold. Houses in zimbobway look like this

FaithInHim says

No my sir, you do not know what hyper inflation is. It is very reasonable to buy now (excluding CA)

There are many people in Zimbabwe that wish the would have bought a home before their monetary collapse.

Time to put an end to this lack of understanding once and for all. See chart below.

Source: Culture and Inflation in Weimar Germany, University of California Press, March 2001
ISBN-10: 0520222903 | ISBN-13: 978-0520222908 (Amazon link to the book).

Yeah, you read that right. Rent went down to 0.2% of a household's expenditures, while food went up to 91.6%. If you believe hyperinflation is coming, you best stock up on Guns, Gold and a year's worth of MREs.

FaithInHim says

bargain

I am still waiting for a link to my first "bargain" house in the non-getto Bay Area.

FaithInHim says

There are many people in Zimbabwe that wish the would have bought a home before their monetary collapse.

During that period there was also mass genocide. There are many, many people in Zimbabwe that wish they had gotten out of the country before that happened.

Once again, if you truly believe hyperinflation is coming you should leave the country now. If you think you can sit in your house and relax while the poor are hungry and have nowhere else to go you are horribly mistaken.

StoutFiles says

FaithInHim says

There are many people in Zimbabwe that wish the would have bought a home before their monetary collapse.

During that period there was also mass genocide. There are many, many people in Zimbabwe that wish they had gotten out of the country before that happened.

Once again, if you truly believe hyperinflation is coming you should leave the country now. If you think you can sit in your house and relax while the poor are hungry and have nowhere else to go you are horribly mistaken.

Very true. Your safety is really a function of the ratio of local law enforcement to the number of poor and hungry. When the law enforcement are also part of the poor and hungry, good luck with your house investment. It will only provide a benefit if you have a sealed bunker inside it with enough food and water to wait out the chaos.

tdeloco says

Yeah, you read that right. Rent went down to 0.2% of a household's expenditures, while food went up to 91.6%. If you believe hyperinflation is coming, you best stock up on Guns, Gold and a year's worth of MREs.

Sure, rent went to almost nothing, but so would mortgage payments have done.

Then when a working currency was brought back those who had a house and mortgage would own a house free and clear.

drtor says

Sure, rent went to almost nothing, but so would mortgage payments have done.

Then when a working currency was brought back those who had a house and mortgage would own a house free and clear.

Assuming they could survive the years it takes for wages to catch up with hyperinflation. Millions would instantly be behind on payments choosing food over their mortgage, and the banks would foreclose as fast as possible.

tdeloco says

Yeah, you read that right. Rent went down to 0.2% of a household's expenditures, while food went up to 91.6%. If you believe hyperinflation is coming, you best stock up on Guns, Gold and a year's worth of MREs.

@tdeloco Please help me understand that chart. For example, if I was a real estate investor, and purchased a house for $100,000, we know that I would be in the hole by $100,000. But if I rented my house for $1500 (which is 30% of someone making 5k per month), I could break even in 5 years and 7 months. According to your chart, the rent went down to miserable $25 per month. I dont see how any real estate investor would allow the market rates to go down that low. You would almost be renting for free.

FaithInHim says

I dont see how any real estate investor would allow the market rates to go down that low. You would almost be renting for free.

That's because in a currency collapse, all RATIONAL ARGUMENTS are lost. Food is at a much higher premium than shelter. Hungry + Angry is not a good combination on any human being. If you really understood Hyperinflation, you won't be spilling all this drivel here.

http://www.9fhxiAHeYs8

A hungry mob is an angry mob - Bob Marley.

FaithInHim says

I could break even in 5 years and 7 months. According to your chart, the rent went down to miserable $25 per month. I dont see how any real estate investor would allow the market rates to go down that low. You would almost be renting for free.

You won't give a rat's ass about breaking even on your investment because you will be desperately trying to feed yourself and your children. The hyperinflationary scenario you mention would change everything, and the only thing people would worry about would be SURVIVAL. Yeah, most people can safely assume that the horrid conditions would go away after a few years, but humans can't go without food for more than a couple of weeks. You have to really think about the gravity of the situation. Money is WORTHLESS. An apple may well cost $100. Your kids are going to be crying because they are hungry and uncomfortable. Tell me that you are still concerned about RE investments when you can't even feed your kids.

FaithInHim says

@tdeloco Please help me understand that chart

Hyperinflation is not "inflation-on-steroids" as have been mentioned. It is the death of a fiat currency, and it would not be normal times. This is rare, but it has happened enough times during the past century. Wikipedia has a long list of examples.

Two values:
Nominal - Price in terms of dollars or other currency
Real - Purchasing power (expressed as a percentage of one's expenditures for example)

During this event, everything goes up in nominal terms. House prices and rent fall in real value, but food will skyrocket as people go into survival mode. They might squat, live in tent cities, pack 3 families in a 3-bedroom home.

So, your example $100,000 house being rented out for $1500. Let's also say you're spending $400 a month for food. Your house price and rent may quadruple in nominal terms, but at the same time, your food might go up twenty fold. So it becomes $400,000 house rented out for $6,000 while your food costs $8,000. Just a rough example.

Example: people ended up paying a hundred billion Zimbabwe dollars for three eggs.

drtor says

Sure, rent went to almost nothing, but so would mortgage payments have done.

Then when a working currency was brought back those who had a house and mortgage would own a house free and clear.

You are correct. Hyperinflation obliterates debt, and people end up paying off their debts quickly. But first, you have to survive (and maybe even thrive) this event. Lots of people will go bust. Furthermore, I don't know how banks will react in this event. Are they going to charge you fees many times your monthly mortgage?

I have also been reading FOFOA's blog. This guy (or gal) is great and has a very broad understanding of currency. My thoughts were proven wrong, the printing presses simply reacts to the event, not the cause of it.

So, NOW is the time to buy? Or NOW? How about NOW? Damn, I missed it!

Interesting thread.

During the German hyperinflation, was there massive starvation?

During the Great Depression in the US, was there famine?

During the famines in the USSR (1930s), China (1960s), and North Korea (recent), was there general disorder down to roving bands fighting over food?

tdeloco says

If you believe hyperinflation is coming, you best stock up on Guns, Gold and a year's worth of MREs.

MREs are expensive. Better off going with cool dry storage of dried beans and rice.

Comparing the Zimbabwe currency to the Dollar is absolutely ludicrous.Is Zimbabwe one the worlds largest economies like the U.S. Your arguments are the typical fear mongering that have no basis on reality.

FaithInHim says

Phoenix housing market has finally bottomed

bottom = recovery... prices are bouncing around the normal range. Welcome to the NEW normal pricing.. which is the OLD normal pricing.

http://dqnews.com/Articles/2012/News/Phoenix/RRMAAZ120307.aspx

"The median price paid in January for all new and resale houses and condos sold in the Phoenix region was $127,500. That was down 1.2 percent from the month before but up 7.1 percent from a year earlier. January marked the second month in a row in which the overall median sale price rose year-over-year. (In December 2011 the Phoenix area’s median posted a 7.5 annual gain.)"

2k12 says

Comparing the Zimbabwe currency to the Dollar is absolutely ludicrous.Is Zimbabwe one the worlds largest economies like the U.S. Your arguments are the typical fear mongering that have no basis on reality.

Clearly you don't understand the fiat currencies. We're the biggest economy simply because the U.S. Dollar is king of all fiat currencies, but can change overnight.

Fear mongering? I only addressed the question "what happens in the event of...", and I answered using textbook examples. Studying them gives us perspective.

Things are clearly different in the U.S., and things may unfold differently. However, you cannot rule out economic collapse regardless of the size the the U.S. economy.