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uomo_senza_nome
2012 Mar 28, 4:00am
If you believe that hyperinflation is coming, it would be in your best interest to buy a house NOW.
Believe me, you will be priced out again once our money becomes worthless.
You really don't know what hyperinflation is.
Hyperinflation does not equal inflation on steroids.
Don't advise people to buy on faith, people should buy based on reason and logic.
bmwman91
2012 Mar 28, 4:01am
Because it won't. Period. Not enough working folks in this country and our debt is absolutely astonishing. Pay attention.
I feel bad for all the zombies in the cannibal anarchy that is coming. Zombies need to feed on brains, and that particular food seems like it will be in short supply.
RentingForHalfTheCost
2012 Mar 28, 4:06am
There are some smoking bargains in CA. You need to buy up now.
Show me one bargain in the bay area which is not in the getto.
Here is a steal for 1.1m+. Just think about it, you too can live right next to a stop sign. The house has no insulation so you'll be pleasantly awakened every night as the bar patriot traffics stops by your place. In no time at all you'll appreciate ceramic brake pads that have been properly lubricated. You will have a 2nd career as an expert witness who can identify the type of vehicle based on recorded brake noise.
Also, as a plus you will be rewarded with a the grand expense of a side and back yard shown in the pictures. I mean, would you expect anything different for 1.1 million dollars? You have worked your whole life to save that bundle of money, you deserve all that space as reward.
http://www.movoto.com/real-estate/homes-for-sale/CA/Los-Altos/999-Loraine-Ave-100_81149168.htm
RentingForHalfTheCost
2012 Mar 28, 4:18am
bmwman91 says
Take a look at the Great Depression and see how much the average person cared about purchasing real estate during that time.
You're comparing apples to oranges.
Even apples and oranges where hard to get in the great depression. People would have been lucky to be comparing them. It would mean they actually have some food and water.
FaithInHim
2012 Mar 28, 4:29am
If you believe that hyperinflation is coming, it would be in your best interest to buy a house NOW.
Believe me, you will be priced out again once our money becomes worthless.
You really don't know what hyperinflation is.
Hyperinflation does not equal inflation on steroids.
Don't advise people to buy on faith, people should buy based on reason and logic.
No my sir, you do not know what hyper inflation is. It is very reasonable to buy now (excluding CA)
There are many people in Zimbabwe that wish the would have bought a home before their monetary collapse.
FaithInHim
2012 Mar 28, 4:33am
bmwman91 says
Take a look at the Great Depression and see how much the average person cared about purchasing real estate during that time.
You're comparing apples to oranges.
Even apples and oranges where hard to get in the great depression. People would have been lucky to be comparing them. It would mean they actually have some food and water.
Lol, good point.
FaithInHim
2012 Mar 28, 4:34am
Buy, buy, buy!
LMAO for the boldest statement on this forum. There are a few bulls here and even they haven't said that strongly!
And your advice is?????????
uomo_senza_nome
2012 Mar 28, 4:39am
No my sir, you do not know what hyper inflation is. It is very reasonable to buy now (excluding CA)
There are many people in Zimbabwe that wish the would have bought a home before their monetary collapse.
LOL, the people closest to the money printer gets the most benefits.
You'd be a total idiot to think that ordinary people would be the first in line to get the printed money.
We're not. Ordinary people are probably the last in line, which is why inflation is STEALTHY.
So no, advising people to take on debt because HI is coming is very very stupid IMO.
rootvg
2012 Mar 28, 4:44am
There are some smoking bargains in CA. You need to buy up now.
Show me one bargain in the bay area which is not in the getto.
We bought one, in Danville.
FaithInHim
2012 Mar 28, 4:44am
No my sir, you do not know what hyper inflation is. It is very reasonable to buy now (excluding CA)
There are many people in Zimbabwe that wish the would have bought a home before their monetary collapse.
LOL, the people closest to the money printer gets the most benefits.
You'd be a total idiot to think that ordinary people would be the first in line to get the printed money.
We're not. Ordinary people are probably the last in line, which is why inflation is STEALTHY.
So no, advising people to take on debt because HI is coming is very very stupid IMO.
Again, you missed the point. Interest rates are super low, so this is the time to TAKE debt out.
uomo_senza_nome
2012 Mar 28, 4:49am
Interest rates are super low, so this is the time to TAKE debt out.
Are you a real estate agent? Patrick has already squashed these myths many times. See point #3 here: http://patrick.net/housing/crash1.html
Do you have any real point?
FaithInHim
2012 Mar 28, 4:55am
Interest rates are super low, so this is the time to TAKE debt out.
Are you a real estate agent? Patrick has already squashed these myths many times. See point #3 here: http://patrick.net/housing/crash1.html
Do you have any real point?
Low house price + low interest rate=buy, buy, buy
uomo_senza_nome
2012 Mar 28, 5:02am
Low house price + low interest rate=buy, buy, buy
Seriously, is this even a counter argument?
It is logical to think: if interest rates rise, then these "low house prices" that exist now, will go ROCK BOTTOM. An all-cash buyer can then buy a property OUTRIGHT. Prices are supported through more borrowing, and that is not the sign of a real recovery.
The fact that you are urging people to take on more debt shows a lot of what's wrong with this country. You can't have a bubble when people don't put the pedal on the credit accelerator. And Americans are really genuinely stupid.
rootvg
2012 Mar 28, 5:07am
Low house price + low interest rate=buy, buy, buy
Seriously, is this even a counter argument?
It is logical to think: if interest rates rise, then these "low house prices" that exist now, will go ROCK BOTTOM. Prices are supported through more borrowing, and that is not the sign of a real recovery.
The fact that you are urging people to take on more debt shows a lot of what's wrong with this country. You can't have a bubble when people don't put the pedal on the credit accelerator.
(sigh)
If a house is properly priced and marketed and is located in a community people want to live in (versus a place where people for whatever reason just happen to end up), it WILL sell.
It's no more complicated than that.
Our house was on the market for about a week. The house at the end of our street is a smaller seventies vintage ranch that smells like mold, was priced in the upper sevens and it went pending in about ten days. That's surreal...but that's how it is here. This isn't Columbus.
Some people will not be able to afford to live here. Over and over and over again, we've discussed this.
I still find it amazing people want to live in Phoenix.... Yeah... nuttin' like living in 110 degree heat for half of the year...
Low house price + low interest rate=buy, buy, buy
Seriously, is this even a counter argument?
It is logical to think: if interest rates rise, then these "low house prices" that exist now, will go ROCK BOTTOM. An all-cash buyer can then buy a property OUTRIGHT. Prices are supported through more borrowing, and that is not the sign of a real recovery.
Not to mention taxes and maintenance costs will go up, up, up. If anyone really thinks hyperinflation is coming, they should leave the country now while the dollar is still worth something to escape the murderous riots. Hyperinflation leads to violence, and we are a country where everyone is packing heat. That would not end well for anyone, especially the homeowners.
uomo_senza_nome
2012 Mar 28, 5:13am
If a house is properly priced and marketed and is located in a community people want to live in (versus a place where people for whatever reason just happen to end up), it WILL sell.
No disagreements there.
Some people will not be able to afford to live here.
That's fine too.
My only gripe is in advising people to take on debt without any logical and reason-based analysis whatsoever. Stating low house prices and low interest rates as the ONLY reason to go buy is moronic.
FaithInHim
2012 Mar 28, 5:52am
I still find it amazing people want to live in Phoenix.... Yeah... nuttin' like living in 110 degree heat for half of the year...
I'll take 110 degree heat for 6 months than live around all the frootloops and ultralibs in the bay area year round.
GUAB
2012 Mar 28, 6:50am
We still have very clear deflation in house prices. It would be foolish to buy anytime soon.
The Fed would like to inflate housing, but they are not all-powerful. They are limited by the fears of the bond market.
If bond buyers get spooked, they will demand higher interest rates, and housing will continue to fall anyway, because people won't be able to borrow as much at higher rates.
We do have inflation in energy, food, and especially in medical care, but we have deflation in housing at the same time because there is still WAY too much mortgage debt out there, and it continues to default at a good clip.
The real inflation to watch is wage inflation. If wages were spiraling upward, then housing could follow. But I don't see wage inflation at all.
Patrick I'm going to have to disagree with you here. While prices may just kind of bobble around the level they're at for a long time -- I don't think it's a solid statement to say it would be foolish to buy here any time soon.
The job market here is really good. It's extremely easy to find a job both white collar and blue collar that pay well. We're having trouble finding people -- to the point where we are actually stealing people from other cities. To the point where we've tried to hire people and actually been turned down because they had multiple offers. Tech is booming here... again.
I don't think we'll see any massive increase again -- but I do think a healthy appreciation is going to start occurring for the next several years as long as incomes continue to rise (and they are in tech).
GUAB
2012 Mar 28, 6:55am
I still find it amazing people want to live in Phoenix.... Yeah... nuttin' like living in 110 degree heat for half of the year...
It's only 110 for like end of June through mid Aug. Drops into the low 100's for remainder. Anything above 105 starts getting really bad. The remainder of our months are just flat out awesome. And if you live into the mountains (i.e., Troon, Mcdowell, Cave Creek, etc), temps drop by 5-10 degrees. I think people live here because you get pretty solid predictable weather year round and it's affordable. As long as it stays considerably more affordable than California -- you will always have tons of people moving here.
RentingForHalfTheCost
2012 Mar 28, 10:02am
Buy, buy, buy!
LMAO for the boldest statement on this forum. There are a few bulls here and even they haven't said that strongly!
I think he meant buy puts on builders. Buy as much as you can afford. Leverage yourself 20 to 1 and then sit back. :) Much like when people buy a house with little to no down. Seems crazy to do it with derivatives, but everyone is okay with doing it with a mortgage. How much we have been brain washed.
RentingForHalfTheCost
2012 Mar 28, 10:14am
And your advice is?????????
Sell if you own, rent if you don't. Take the savings you have and grow it with sound investing. Take the job you have and work to improve your wage and happiness. Then as your savings and wages are growing on top of a dropping housing market, you just pick when you want to join the masses of home owners. Remember, housing at best will hold its value. Don't treat it like this is your wealth engine. It is an asset, that ages, but still stays attractive enough to track to inflation. Use other investment sources to grow your wealth. You might get lucky with a 10 or 20 years period of exuberance in housing, but I completely doubt it at this point. That time has come and gone and many people did make big money. Remember, fools are the last ones to the table and the last to leave the table. Smart money has come and gone. Don't be a donkey and expect the same response in a completely different environment.
Buy, buy, buy!
LMAO for the boldest statement on this forum. There are a few bulls here and even they haven't said that strongly!
I think he meant buy puts on builders. Buy as much as you can afford. Leverage yourself 20 to 1 and then sit back. :) Much like when people buy a house with little to no down. Seems crazy to do it with derivatives, but everyone is okay with doing it with a mortgage. How much we have been brain washed.
Leveraging 20 to 1 on a house is nothing like leveraging 20 to 1 on derivatives or stocks because there is no risk of a margin call. I'm not saying that anyone should leverage up on a stupidly overpriced house, but comparing the two is very misleading. If your fixed mortgage payment is lower than rent ( true for much of Phoenix) and you plan on living there for a while, its no big deal if the price drops a little. The bank doesn't call you up demanding more collateral putting you into bankruptcy a la MF Global.
RentingForHalfTheCost
2012 Mar 28, 11:22am
Leveraging 20 to 1 on a house is nothing like leveraging 20 to 1 on derivatives or stocks because there is no risk of a margin call. I'm not saying that anyone should leverage up on a stupidly overpriced house, but comparing the two is very misleading. If your fixed mortgage payment is lower than rent ( true for much of Phoenix) and you plan on living there for a while, its no big deal if the price drops a little. The bank doesn't call you up demanding more collateral putting you into bankruptcy a la MF Global.
Hmm. Stop paying because of a lost job and you do get the bank calling you up asking for collateral in the form of money. The margin call with a house is foreclosure. You loose your full investment in both cases. 100% of equity. You gamble 20 to 1 and you takes your chances. Many have lost and many more will.
I'll take 110 degree heat for 6 months than live around all the frootloops and ultralibs in the bay area year round.
uh... yeahhh. well, whatever. Yeah, on second thought, keep on thinking that. Yeah- you're right... California is one big hell hole cause' its all full of liberals.
I grew up in the heat. If you all like that then great. Personally I think its miserable. Around here its 65-70 most of the year and doesn't rain from April-October.
B.A.C.A.H.
2012 Mar 28, 2:34pm
Show me one bargain in the bay area which is not in the getto.
We bought one, in Danville.
If you think Danville is an island of intolerance/bigotry, how about putting some signs in your yard telling some of your neighbors what you think of them?
RentingForHalfTheCost
2012 Mar 28, 3:11pm
Show me one bargain in the bay area which is not in the getto.
We bought one, in Danville.
If you think Danville is an island of intolerance/bigotry, how about putting some signs in your yard telling some of your neighbors what you think of them?
Parts of Danville are complete getto!
dunnross
2012 Mar 28, 3:58pm
No my sir, you do not know what hyper inflation is. It is very reasonable to buy now (excluding CA)
There are many people in Zimbabwe that wish the would have bought a home before their monetary collapse.
LOL, the people closest to the money printer gets the most benefits.
You'd be a total idiot to think that ordinary people would be the first in line to get the printed money.
We're not. Ordinary people are probably the last in line, which is why inflation is STEALTHY.
So no, advising people to take on debt because HI is coming is very very stupid IMO.
Again, you missed the point. Interest rates are super low, so this is the time to TAKE debt out.
They wished to have bought gold. Houses in zimbobway look like this
tdeloco
2012 Mar 28, 7:45pm
No my sir, you do not know what hyper inflation is. It is very reasonable to buy now (excluding CA)
There are many people in Zimbabwe that wish the would have bought a home before their monetary collapse.
Time to put an end to this lack of understanding once and for all. See chart below.
Source: Culture and Inflation in Weimar Germany, University of California Press, March 2001
ISBN-10: 0520222903 | ISBN-13: 978-0520222908 (Amazon link to the book).
Yeah, you read that right. Rent went down to 0.2% of a household's expenditures, while food went up to 91.6%. If you believe hyperinflation is coming, you best stock up on Guns, Gold and a year's worth of MREs.
dunnross
2012 Mar 28, 8:44pm
bargain
I am still waiting for a link to my first "bargain" house in the non-getto Bay Area.
There are many people in Zimbabwe that wish the would have bought a home before their monetary collapse.
During that period there was also mass genocide. There are many, many people in Zimbabwe that wish they had gotten out of the country before that happened.
Once again, if you truly believe hyperinflation is coming you should leave the country now. If you think you can sit in your house and relax while the poor are hungry and have nowhere else to go you are horribly mistaken.
RentingForHalfTheCost
2012 Mar 29, 1:04am
There are many people in Zimbabwe that wish the would have bought a home before their monetary collapse.
During that period there was also mass genocide. There are many, many people in Zimbabwe that wish they had gotten out of the country before that happened.
Once again, if you truly believe hyperinflation is coming you should leave the country now. If you think you can sit in your house and relax while the poor are hungry and have nowhere else to go you are horribly mistaken.
Very true. Your safety is really a function of the ratio of local law enforcement to the number of poor and hungry. When the law enforcement are also part of the poor and hungry, good luck with your house investment. It will only provide a benefit if you have a sealed bunker inside it with enough food and water to wait out the chaos.
Yeah, you read that right. Rent went down to 0.2% of a household's expenditures, while food went up to 91.6%. If you believe hyperinflation is coming, you best stock up on Guns, Gold and a year's worth of MREs.
Sure, rent went to almost nothing, but so would mortgage payments have done.
Then when a working currency was brought back those who had a house and mortgage would own a house free and clear.
Sure, rent went to almost nothing, but so would mortgage payments have done.
Then when a working currency was brought back those who had a house and mortgage would own a house free and clear.
Assuming they could survive the years it takes for wages to catch up with hyperinflation. Millions would instantly be behind on payments choosing food over their mortgage, and the banks would foreclose as fast as possible.
FaithInHim
2012 Mar 29, 1:39am
Yeah, you read that right. Rent went down to 0.2% of a household's expenditures, while food went up to 91.6%. If you believe hyperinflation is coming, you best stock up on Guns, Gold and a year's worth of MREs.
@tdeloco Please help me understand that chart. For example, if I was a real estate investor, and purchased a house for $100,000, we know that I would be in the hole by $100,000. But if I rented my house for $1500 (which is 30% of someone making 5k per month), I could break even in 5 years and 7 months. According to your chart, the rent went down to miserable $25 per month. I dont see how any real estate investor would allow the market rates to go down that low. You would almost be renting for free.
uomo_senza_nome
2012 Mar 29, 2:44am
I dont see how any real estate investor would allow the market rates to go down that low. You would almost be renting for free.
That's because in a currency collapse, all RATIONAL ARGUMENTS are lost. Food is at a much higher premium than shelter. Hungry + Angry is not a good combination on any human being. If you really understood Hyperinflation, you won't be spilling all this drivel here.
A hungry mob is an angry mob - Bob Marley.
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Good news if your a seller!
http://www.azcentral.com/business/realestate/articles/2012/03/27/20120327phoenix-area-fewer-homes-sale-prices-up.html
#housing