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Here's something I ran across yesterday: a home in Marin listed for its previous sale price from 2002: http://tinyurl.com/d8p6l I've never seen this before.
Searching MLS, I'm noticing many homes being listed this past week.
Isn't that a bit late for the season? I'm going to record these stats, and post any trends I see.
After rising rather steadily for the 1.5 mos I've been tracking, inventory in Santa Clara County took a decent hit in the past week...bringing it back to the level of ~1.5 mos ago (note there's a good chance that I started tracking too late to see an earlier run-up in inventory). I'm not tracking "sale pendings", so I don't know if this decrease is because they all suddenly sold, or if a lot of them were taken off market due to sellers' refusal to compromise on price. This drop in inventory shows up in both mlslistings.com and ziprealty.com.
Anyone else see this?
And here is an odd contrast:
From another source, I'm tracking properties in South San Jose only...and this continues to show a fairly rapid rise in inventory...up 20% in just under 2 mos. Total number of properties is ~660 (to give an idea of the sample size).
Keep in mind everyone that there will probably not be a huge inventory increase anymore until after the holidays. This is not traditionally the big time of year for real estate in general….
Yes, that's true...however, the rising inventory is what makes this fall season "different". As far as I've been able to tell, decreasing sale prices throughout the Fall is seasonally normal...along with dropping inventory. So, I've been been looking at the anomalous rising fall inventory as a sign that this Spring might be "different"...perhaps continued falling prices, as opposed to the seasonal norm of rising prices. To my thinking, the more the inventory rises right now (at a time when it normally falls), the more potential there is for a "different" Spring season. That's my point of view, and reason for interest in current inventory levels & trends.
the more potential there is for a “different†Spring season.
My bet is that in 2006, it’s going to be even higher numbers.
With all the Fall inventory around here, and few sales*, I also suspect a "Spring Surprise", because I'm hearing people expecting things to pick up again after winter.
*not to mention all those houses listed in June/July and still no takers.
Quoted from your link, Mr.Wrong:
Hale also wants Mr. Right to be adventurous, kind, physically fit, and generous.
Maybe it's time for you to become Mr.Right again.
It's interesting how much the anecdotal information suggests a major (dare I say 'paradigm' shift) is underway in the market right now, and yet the official numbers (CAR, NAR, etc.) barely reflect this movement at all. Statewide inventory & time on market is definitely up somewhat yoy, but nowhere near as high as the local buzz might suggest.
I have to wonder if 'someone' (*cough*) isn't fudging the numbers just a tad. As in, buyer cash rebates and other concessions that conveniently don't get included in the final sales report; homes that don't sell, which get pulled and then relisted as "new" listings, etc.
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In the process of deciding whether to buy my house or not, I've spoken with 3 fairly neutral realtors on the Bay Area market. Sure seems like the first raindrops before an inevitable storm...or could it be a brief shower?
Realtor #1: "There is no doubt that there has been a shift in the market, most noticably even in the past 2 weeks. We are seeing 'retours'. That is, having to do multiple realtor-only showings. This is needed because houses are on the market so much longer than before. We've never had these before. Ditto on price reductions. Consumer confidence has dipped and rates are going up. People are cashing out and moving out".
Realtor #2: "We have not had any Coastside (around Half Moon Bay) property under $700k. Now we're seeing plenty. One property listed at $750k and sold for $650k...but the buyer fell through. Now it's listed for $599k."
Realtor #3: "Even very nice houses in Menlo Park are sitting on the market for a long time."
Me: driving down Alameda de las Pulgas yesterday from San Carlos to Palo Alto I saw GOBS of 'For Sale' signs. It seemed like I saw 3 at nearly every corner. And this is the slow time of year?
Colleague of mine: "I track the asking versus selling prices for the South Bay. Now I see virtually no cases where the seller is getting full asking...it is common to see 5-10% reductions. Seeing enormous amounts of Open House signs."
Folks, this stuff won't show in the news for a while...how about posting your anecdotes?
#housing