patrick.net

gregpfielding says

Palo Alto is fundamentally different today than in 1998 - more than WC, but 10x the gains is ridiculous.

Yes, it was quite a bit different, fundamentally? In 1998, the sili.con valley was at the height of it's historic fame. With hundreds of new startups announcing their IPO's every year, and 10-20 jobs for every college graduate, it was definitely different than now. Now, you can probably find more homeless people than high-tech yuppies in down-town palo alto.

dunnross says

Now, you can probably find more homeless people than high-tech yuppies in down-town palo alto.

good point.

Don't forget that the groundwater in Palo Alto is definitely polluted with a known carcinogen:

http://www.paloaltoonline.com/news/show_story.php?id=22807

Steve Jobs lived right in the middle of it and died young of pancreatic cancer. Just one data point, but hmmm.

If the contamination is shown to really be causing a lot of cancer, that would definitely take prices in Palo Alto down.

One thing Palo Alto buyers share with Steve Jobs is the Reality distortion field and stern adherence to the self fulfilling prophecy. They would all move to Prypiat if it was hyped up enough as a property dreamland.

People are like sheep

bmwman91 says

Also, 25 years isn't that long of a time as far as society & civilization are concerned. Maybe PA will remain expensive for as long as the USA exists, and maybe it won't. Just because it has been that way for a couple of decades doesn't mean it will.

No analogy is perfect. My point is simply price follows an exponential curve on everything, and that it's not a bubble when it last multiple decades (what is the official definition of a bubble anyways?).

I shouldn't have said Palo Alto will never change. What I meant is measured in our lifetimes it isn't likely going to change much. We don't have too many 25 years in our lives. Those with $ in the BA all want to migrate to Palo Alto, so it's just the natural reflection of the Silicon Valley economy.

If SV really goes down over the next 10-15 years, sure, you'll see a decline. Even then, Palo Alto will go down last. I was just pointing out that based on the current tech climate, I wouldn't hold your breath for it.

flat says

I was just pointing out that based on the current tech climate, I wouldn't hold your breath for it.

All the bulls just keep repeating the same mantra about how attractive PA is, and how desirable it is, but nobody would dare to answer my question: How did PA become 5 times more desirable relative to another desirable city like Walnut Creek, in just 6 short years?

gregpfielding says

flat says

With FaceBook, Google, and Apple all hiring like mad, you will be waiting for a long long time for this "bubble" to pop.

They'll make up for the thousands of Yahoo layoffs in the works.

East Bay Real Estate Agent and Blogger

Normal rise & fall. I just don't see how you guys think Palo Alto is goig to crash any time soon with FB, Google & Apple surrounding it.

flat says

I shouldn't have said Palo Alto will never change. What I meant is measured in our lifetimes it isn't likely going to change much. We don't have too many 25 years in our lives. Those with $ in the BA all want to migrate to Palo Alto, so it's just the natural reflection of the Silicon Valley economy.

Actually there are many great places outside of PA and in BA... Marin for one which historically has always been a more expensive even before the pre-bubble years. With enough $M you can move to Carmel and SLO..

Danaseb says

One thing Palo Alto buyers share with Steve Jobs is the Reality distortion field and stern adherence to the self fulfilling prophecy. They would all move to Prypiat if it was hyped up enough as a property dreamland.

Exactly! and if the distoration field starts to fail, im pretty sure someone will come up with another hyped IPO to cash out and fleece the public. Bernie Madoff should of left NYC years ago and set up his ponzi scheme in SV.. 'cause it ok around here.

dunnross says

How did PA become 5 times more desirable relative to another desirable city like Walnut Creek, in just 6 short years?

Maybe if FB was headquartered in WC,maybe if all the venture capital offices had moved to WC, maybe if Zynga/twitter/hot dot com had moved to WC...

thomas.wong1986 says

another hyped

there are many things that are hype.

santana row is a hype, why do people go there, and to make endless lines on pinkberry, which is another hype.

iphones and ipads is all hype, because people are sheep, they all have the "me too" mentality.

flat says

Normal rise & fall. I just don't see how you guys think Palo Alto is goig to crash any time soon with FB, Google & Apple surrounding it.

You could of said the same about.. ARIBA back in 1999-2001... spit twice before IPO and spit afterwards. From $600 /sh to under $5/sh.

So why not talk about Cisco ? well Cisco, like every other IPO before the bubble, was never overvalued when it did its IPO.

Want to show stock appreciation... They had to EARN IT for a stock to up 1%. Yes.. EPS did matter.

flat says

Normal rise & fall. I just don't see how you guys think Palo Alto is goig to crash any time soon with FB, Google & Apple surrounding it.

Because, in order for prices to keep going up from these unsustainable levels, new FB's, Google's and Apple's need to be created every year, and very soon, enough people are going to be burned from buying their stocks, that nobody would want to invest in high-tech startups any more. At some point, it would be cheaper to keep the companies private than IPO'ing them.

chip_designer says

Maybe if FB was headquartered in WC,maybe if all the venture capital offices had moved to WC, maybe if Zynga/twitter/hot dot com had moved to WC...

But in San Francisco we have Wells Fargo Bank & Bank of America & many more large financial institutions, not some fly-by-night operations like FB. FB is here today, but gone tomorrow.

dunnross says

venture capital offices had moved to WC,

BTW, VC funding is less than 10% of what it was back in 2000. So, I still didn't get the answer to my question. I will repeat. How did PA become 10 times more attractive, relative to WC in the last 6 years?

chip_designer says

venture capital offices

VCs already have offices globaly. They also invested in Dell, Texas Instruments, IBM, Compaq, DEC, and plenty more are outside of SV.

VCs are not some huge bank with zillions of cash in a magical hidden vault located in SV. The money comes from various various wealth people.. as far as Asia, Middle East Oil Money, and Europe. VCs actually have to travel to come up with the cash they spend.

dunnross says

FB is here today, but gone tomorrow.

HA HA!

dunnross says

I will repeat. How did PA become 10 times more attractive, relative to WC in the last 6 years?

maybe about the time when you moved to WC? =)

chip_designer says

maybe about the time when you moved to WC? =)

I don't need to. As long as I don't buy in PA, or anywhere close to it, I'd be fine.

dunnross says

hot dot com

I think you are about 12 years behind the times with your "hot dot com" statement.

chip_designer says

dunnross says
FB is here today, but gone tomorrow.

HA HA!

Sun, National Semi, Unngerman Bass, Amdahl, Conners, 3Comm, Adaptec and the list goes on.

Maybe some of us who worked here back in the early years
arnt some immature cheerleader hyping without regard to risks.

thomas.wong1986 says

Sun, National Semi, Unngerman Bass, Amdahl, Conners, 3Comm, Adaptec and the list goes on.

yes, i agree. sorry about it, i forgot. Also silicon graphics, S3, nortel, nexgen, cray computer, nothing is forever, newer technology will always prevail. Before FB came around, myspace already had the concept , how come FB killed myspace? Anyway, even if FB is gone tomorrow, another new hyped company will take its place, and that will most likely happen in PA or around silicon valley.

chip_designer says

another new hyped company will take its place, and that will most likely happen in PA or around silicon valley.

You can fool some of the people all of the time, and all of the people some of the time, but you can not fool all of the people all of the time.
Abraham Lincoln, (attributed)
16th president of US (1809 - 1865)

thomas.wong1986 says

You could of said the same about.. ARIBA back in 1999-2001... spit twice before IPO and spit afterwards. From $600 /sh to under $5/sh.

So why not talk about Cisco ? well Cisco, like every other IPO before the bubble, was never overvalued when it did its IPO.

Want to show stock appreciation... They had to EARN IT for a stock to up 1%. Yes.. EPS did matter.

Not sure what your point is. No company is always on top all the time.

What's wrong with Cisco? Market Cap still > $100B, still a major employer in the valley. Apple & Google are both in the top 20 IN THE WORLD in market cap. Add to that Oracle, Intel, HP, Cisco, Ebay, and I'm sure I'm forgetting a few. Facebook may come & go, but it's coming right now, and not going away for a few years at least.

> How did PA become 5 times more desirable relative to another desirable city like Walnut Creek, in just 6 short years?

I'll repeat my point again:
1) Pricing are on exponential curve. Be it houses, cars, wine, or watches.
2) Palo Alto is the creme of the crop of BA. You don't have to appreciate it, but the prices just reflects the total amount of wealth in SV. Why do you feel 5x more than WC is unreasonable & unsustainable? I don't see any large growth in companies around WC?
3) You cannot claim it to be a bubble if it's lasting decades.

I don't live in PA, I don't particularly appreciate PA. I was in the same boat as all of you 15 years ago and decided there is no point paying a premium to live in PA. Obviously, looking back, I would have been better off if I had bought there (both financially, and kids education wise).

Anyways, I stand by my statement given the number of large corporate giants still expanding around PA, I don't see PA prices going anywhere but up (or sideways) for the next 5-10 years. If you are waiting for the "bubble" to pop, be prepared to wait a long time.

flat says

Not sure what your point is. No company is always on top all the time.
What's wrong with Cisco? Market Cap still > $100B, still a major employer in the valley. Apple & Google are both in the top 20 IN THE WORLD in market cap. Add to that Oracle, Intel, HP, Cisco, Ebay, and I'm sure I'm forgetting a few. Facebook may come & go, but it's coming right now, and not going away for a few years at least.

Its about valuations inline with earnings.

flat says

1) Pricing are on exponential curve. Be it houses, cars, wine, or watches.
2) Palo Alto is the creme of the crop of BA. You don't have to appreciate it, but the prices just reflects the total amount of wealth in SV. Why do you feel 5x more than WC is unreasonable & unsustainable? I don't see any large growth in companies around WC?
3) You cannot claim it to be a bubble if it's lasting decades

Bubbles can last a long time.. 10 years isnt unusual, see Japan.
But they eventually end.. countless migrants believing the above statement continue to believe, but get disappointed.

Actually pre-stock bubble, Marin had a higher median price.. Belvedere Island itself is well beyond what you get than PA.
Tired sitting at home, take a spin in your boat parked in the back? how about a spin around the bay some Saturday afternoon... Can you do that in Palo Alto ?

flat says

If you are waiting for the "bubble" to pop, be prepared to wait a long time.

I bought my home in Los Gatos back in early 90s.. had it since.
Bubbles have undesired consequences.. and they are not pretty.
Had you lived here in SV and had your career over the last 30+ years you understand the blow backs.. not pretty!

chip_designer says

Anyway, even if FB is gone tomorrow, another new hyped company will take its place, and that will most likely happen in PA or around silicon valley.

Is that a guarantee ... hope you have deep pockets to pay out if you lose. No one who has worked here buys into that crap!

Google, Facebook, Yahoo, and some other are Advertising companies, not tech companies.

thomas.wong1986 says

chip_designer says

Anyway, even if FB is gone tomorrow, another new hyped company will take its place, and that will most likely happen in PA or around silicon valley.

Is that a guarantee ... hope you have deep pockets to pay out if you lose. No one who has worked here buys into that crap!

Google, Facebook, Yahoo, and some other are Advertising companies, not tech companies.

Totally agree. The difference though is in how much relevant data they have on their users. Directed marketing is a huge money saver to companies. It is the same reason why almost ever retailer has their own store card now. Safeway makes a tonne of money just collecting and selling the data on each of us. When you get them coupons on your receipt giving you a 2-for-1 on the extra-large condom packet, you know you have been profiled. :)

I just became a Dad for the first time and the ads I see now are completely about that change in lifestyle. Google, Facebook, Yahoo know more about me than most of my friends. After seeing that switch I am reducing my "being watched" time. I love good technology, but I dislike being profiled even more.

thomas.wong1986 says

Google, Facebook, Yahoo, and some other are Advertising companies, not tech companies.

Advertising is a derivative business, and will never generate as much revenue as selling directly to the consumer. In a recession, advertising budget is the first thing companies cut.

thomas.wong1986 says

Google, Facebook, Yahoo, and some other are Advertising companies, not tech companies.

Well said.

thomas.wong1986 says

Google, Facebook, Yahoo, and some other are Advertising companies, not tech companies.

The tech companies are hiring too just ask Apple

dunnross says

maybe about the time when you moved to WC? =)

I need to hit the WC...and fast. That breakfast burrito and coffee was a BAD combination...

And just what will happen when interest rates start returning to historical norms? Or.. do Bay Area realtors tell you interest rates will drop for next 30 years....

Realtors are more crooked than lawyers.

dunnross says

Advertising is a derivative business, and will never generate as much revenue as selling directly to the consumer. In a recession, advertising budget is the first thing companies cut.

100% correct, you certainly dont cut your assets that turn over into revenue (sales).

dunnross says

flat says

I was just pointing out that based on the current tech climate, I wouldn't hold your breath for it.

All the bulls just keep repeating the same mantra about how attractive PA is, and how desirable it is, but nobody would dare to answer my question: How did PA become 5 times more desirable relative to another desirable city like Walnut Creek, in just 6 short years?

I would say that it is actually pretty rational to be willing to pay a significant premium on living close to where you work. If you save 30 min each way on your commute that's an hour of your life every day, what is more important that that?

So if lots of well paid people live in the same area we would expect that rather rationally the price of housing to go up. Even if it is expensive, it is worth it to them.

The risk they have to face when they *buy* a house (as opposed to rent) is what if the demographics change over time...

drtor says

I would say that it is actually pretty rational to be willing to pay a significant premium on living close to where you work. If you save 30 min each way on your commute that's an hour of your life every day, what is more important that that?

So if lots of well paid people live in the same area we would expect that rather rationally the price of housing to go up. Even if it is expensive, it is worth it to them.

Yup. This is exactly why I spend probably ~$200 more per month to rent a 2BR in Mountain View* than I would in Santa Clara or San Jose. It would be cheaper elsewhere, but having a 15 minute walk to work / 5 minute bike ride to work is worth at least $100 a month in gas, maybe the equivalent of $40 a month in tires and maintenance, and then there's the value of my time. I used to commute from Cambrian to MV, and if I worked 7AM - 4PM it was tolerable (25 mins in the morning, 30-50 mins in the afternoon).

Honestly though, I really have a hard time thinking about having 5-7 hours less free time per week. I have tons of hobbies and I love having zero dependence on a car. Want to get drunk? 20 minute walk to Castro/CalTrain. And on top of all of that, being a big fitness nut, riding/walking has obvious benefits. I'll occasionally run to work, although it is a pain with a backpack, and I even ride my old longboard (skateboard) for kicks sometimes. If it rains, out comes the mountain bike & off I go through the mud next to the Stevens Creek trail! I last drove to work sometime in mid-January because I had a dental appointment that day.

With that said though, I would never BUY in MV. Condos/Townhouses are absolutely not options for me...why the hell would I pay more to be stuck in something about as nice as my rental? If I buy, the property must have no shared walls, a 2+ car garage/workshop and some sort of yard. In MV, the cost of that is just so far beyond reason that I can't even justify it to keep my awesome bike commute. Lots of Googlers live here, and they make a LOT of money (salary+bonus+stock incentives). Certainly, they have the means and willingness to pay for a SFH with a killer commute. I don't, but that's OK. Lots of the houses here are sort of decrepit shit-boxes, and the last thing I need is to be fixing a house every weekend.

* I looked in west Sunnyvale; hordes of unattended children roaming the streets turned me off to it. I don't want my car radio stolen, and good luck finding parking after 4PM when most neighboring units have 8 families crammed into them.

drtor says

I would say that it is actually pretty rational to be willing to pay a significant premium on living close to where you work. If you save 30 min each way on your commute that's an hour of your life every day, what is more important that that?

So, if the ratio of PA/WC increased 10 times during 6 years, is it because there are now 10 times as many people as 6 years ago, who have jobs in PA vs. WC, and don't want to commute, or is it because, they all just realized that they didn't want to commute.

dunnross says

drtor says

I would say that it is actually pretty rational to be willing to pay a significant premium on living close to where you work. If you save 30 min each way on your commute that's an hour of your life every day, what is more important that that?

So, if the ratio of PA/WC increased 10 times during 6 years, is it because there are now 10 times as many people as 6 years ago, who have jobs in PA vs. WC, and don't want to commute, or is it because, they all just realized that they didn't want to commute.

It could be enough that incomes went up significantly more in PA than in WC. And it does not have to be 10x more, price points can be sensitive when the supply is inelastic like houses. For another example check out how the Baltic Dry Index of shipping costs goes up and down like crazy when there are modest changes in demand volume.

That said, I don't claim to be an expert on PA real estate, just mentioning a general principle. Did the rents in PA go up with the houses? If yes, that would seem to indicate that it is driven by underlying supply/demand/demographics. Which does not mean it will stay that way forever but it would suggest that it will stay as long as the demographics remain the same. If on the other hand houses are expensive relative rents that would suggest they are more driven by speculation/bubble thinking.

PA real estate is hot right now with all of the natural gas drilling going on.

Oh...crap...wrong PA...

drtor says

I would say that it is actually pretty rational to be willing to pay a significant premium on living close to where you work. If you save 30 min each way on your commute that's an hour of your life every day, what is more important that that?

It goes both ways. Everyone has their own value system. I'm one of those people who drives 30 minutes each way. On the other hand we pay $1,250 for our part of the rent for a 4 bedroom house with another housemate who is seldom if ever home. So when I go home I have a big back yard, an office, my own garage, and a spare bedroom even. The neighborhood we live in is also walkable. You can walk to town if you wanted. We have nice bike lanes too. As a result of this we've saved up a lot of cash. I know for fact that a 4 bedroom house anywhere near where we work would rent for double, if not more than what we pay now. To me that's not worth it and on top of that, I don't really like the Peninsula anyway.