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justwantaniceplacetostay
2011 Dec 27, 7:05pm
In 2012
Someone will get elected and the banks will put in their man as Treasury Secretary.
RE market will continue to have bottomed
More and more low wage temp jobs with no benefits will make up the job recovery
A war may be started as a stimulus package for the Pentagon Suppliers Group as the other two wind down
Rentals will still be horrible
Homes will remain overpriced
Banks will charge us interest to store our money
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I understand that the macro economic picture remains murky, and this slow moving train wreck has already lasted longer than most had ever predicted, but what does your instinct tell you for 2012?
Some are seeing depreciation coming to the core. Others see wealth transfer and information jobs keeping Bay Area Fortress prices high.
For me, I feel the old truism, "You can't fight the Fed". As long as the Fed keeps interest rates at historic lows, it will be hard to move housing prices down quickly. I see 2012 pushing prices down a 2-3% real and thus 3-4% nominal.
One possible big mover would be European or Japanese debt repudiation. The loss of a big chunk of retirement assets could hasten sales, but what a pyric victory.
#housing