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EastCoastBubbleBoy
2011 Dec 26, 8:49pm
(Please excuse my spelling - too busy to spell check this one)
They announce that we are (and have been) in a recession sometime towards the end of the spring / early summer.
Election politics will get ugly.
Prices down 4% Year over year nationally, but some areas have (or are close to) bottoming, and start to recover.
The 2012 mayan end of age hype catches up with us. Otherwise ordinary people start behving irrationally, undermining one of the key tennants of our financial sytem - rational behavior. Not sure how it manifests itself, but the reprecussions will be ugly once 2012 comes to a close without any extinction type incidents occuring.
B.A.C.A.H.
2011 Dec 27, 2:15am
Election politics will get ugly.
Yep. This is how ugly it will get, like 1968:
If, for whatever reason (economy, Republican infighting, etc.), Obama's campaign starts looking ilke a juggernaut in comparison to any Republican "alternative", then Obama won't live to win the election. Like the Kennedy brothers didn't live to win theirs. Like Reagan "getting in the way" almost didn't live to be reelected.
JodyChunder
2011 Dec 27, 3:25pm
does any one else feel POSITIVE about this coming year? I feel change is coming.
In 2012
Someone will get elected and the banks will put in their man as Treasury Secretary.
RE market will continue to have bottomed
More and more low wage temp jobs with no benefits will make up the job recovery
A war may be started as a stimulus package for the Pentagon Suppliers Group as the other two wind down
Rentals will still be horrible
Homes will remain overpriced
Banks will charge us interest to store our money
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I understand that the macro economic picture remains murky, and this slow moving train wreck has already lasted longer than most had ever predicted, but what does your instinct tell you for 2012?
Some are seeing depreciation coming to the core. Others see wealth transfer and information jobs keeping Bay Area Fortress prices high.
For me, I feel the old truism, "You can't fight the Fed". As long as the Fed keeps interest rates at historic lows, it will be hard to move housing prices down quickly. I see 2012 pushing prices down a 2-3% real and thus 3-4% nominal.
One possible big mover would be European or Japanese debt repudiation. The loss of a big chunk of retirement assets could hasten sales, but what a pyric victory.
#housing