patrick.net
An Antidote to Corporate Media
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To the parasites who make a living by deception, and there are many in the USA, this site may seem bearish. But it is not. It simply tries to expose the truth. To the parasites, the truth is just an inconvenient impediment that lies in their way of swindling more people. They mourn the bursting of the bubble and yearn for the return of its evil. This site was among the first to raise the publics' understanding of the housing bubble and its terrible effects, and I predict it will continue to bring out the truth in 2012. Now you con artists will have to look elsewhere to get money for doing nothing... gold... stocks again... more worthless crap. I suggest you scammers try making a living by actually producing something, for a change!
whoosh says
and then borrow later at a much higher rate when no one is willing to lend
It seems like you have not been following lending market lately! Even at super low rates lending standards are strictest in recent times. Lots and lots of recent RE transactions are cash only. Go figure!
I am not talking about individual borrowing but debt by US as a country. While it is easy for US to borrow right now at a low rate - that may not always be the case. This seems a little counter intuitive but if you are likely to be jobless for sometime - better to get low rate loans before you get laid off to help you tide over :-).
Also check out:
http://www.usnews.com/news/articles/2011/01/28/the-10-countries-with-the-most-debt
BTW the great part of US debt is it is all in its own currency (if really needed the debt can be inflated away) - most countries don't have that luxury.
By the way - with respect to your point about stricter lending standards & folks not able to take advantage of low interest rates (and buy houses) - I think increased interest rates will lead to increased lending by the banks as they will be willing to take more risks & hence increased house prices. Ordinary people will stretch themselves to buy even if it costs them more due to the higher rates - and banks will bend over themselves to lend. This in turn will cause the home owners with good houses who have been waiting in the sidelines will start unloading properties - seeing more good condition non-foreclosure properties on sale the waiting in the sidelines homebuyers will get tempted & jump in - leading to another bubble. These are human tendencies/behaviors that may or may not be in their best interests - but most of us are ordinary weak folks. So in my opinion if Patrick wants lower house prices - he should hope Bernanke will keep the rates low for as long as possible.
B.A.C.A.H.
2011 Dec 25, 3:33am
Prediction for 2012?
If, for whatever reason (economy, Republican infighting, etc.), Obama's campaign starts looking ilke a juggernaut in comparison to any Republican "alternative", then Obama won't live to win the election. Like the Kennedy brothers didn't live to win theirs. Like Reagan "getting in the way" almost didn't live to be reelected.
Not a prediction, but a hunch: a corollary to that one is, if they cause that kind of chaos, and if there's internal chaos within the factions of the Republicans, it would not be surprising to see Jeb Bush emerge as the Republican nominee.
B.A.C.A.H.
2011 Dec 25, 3:38am
bubblesitter says
Even at super low rates lending standards are strictest in recent times.
Lending standards are not stricter than usual, they have simply returned to normal. If you have verifiable income, a decent credit history, and your debt-to-income ratio isn't too high, it's easy to get credit.
That's right.
So many folks who're either younger than me, or if around my age, immigrated to the Left Coast on their H-1's in the past decade or so, have told me how onerous the typical terms of the typical loan was that I borrowed for in 1989.
But they were not onerous terms. If anything, they were fairly liberal: I could borrow 90% if I paid for PMI on the 10% portion.
People act like being able to over-borrow so that they can over-spend is some kinda Entitlement.
JodyChunder
2011 Dec 25, 6:19pm
i predict a booming economy. more self made men real estate invesment types and more APPLE products to keep us exited about the future here in the USA. i predict OBAMA 2012 and a huge employment boom and house buying spree parlty because of the troops returning from the war and other war profits finding they way back home here in the USA. i predict no more OCCUPY and a new respect for banks. if you can not beat them you join them. i saw this play out with the boomers. dont see why it will be any diff with this generation. i preedict china as our ally againts IRAN and i predict better oil sources for the us from both the pipeline and japans whales. i see a real turn around in 2012.
guess I just feel positive is all. cutting a guy down with a cartoon dont sweeten the deal any neither. thanks a lot.
ArtimusMaxtor
2011 Dec 26, 12:58am
http://www.youtube.com/embed/Xx1i_Fzrd3o&feature=youtu.be
http://youtu.be/watch?v=hbsW-vooxdU&feature=youtu.be
I find this interesting. However it misses the key. To the control issue of these people of in his subject. Another words what the gentleman in video is trying to convey.
The key to the control is very, very simple. Debt. When one owes. One owns nothing. One does what one is told. One has fear of the one who is owed. There are some minor points I do like. In the video.
One might think to himself true I owe on the house. But I own my furniture free and clear. Not true. If you owe everything you have is owned until payment is completed. The hysterial part of all of this is that someone making 500k a year. House paid for thinks he's not owned. However when on any kind of payment system be it for electric or cable. The same holds true. Thats why they only take monthly payments on such things. People that are just so grateful for the debt merchants that helped make their lives and don't know why. Yet the people that have cleared everything off the books are still on monthly payment plans. I find that hilarious. It's not funny not at the expense of the people who pay the monthly cable, electric and water etc. However I am laughing at the fucking deviousness of the debt merchants.
At some point you think someone, somewhere. Would turn and say the debt merchants that got them into this. You all are nothing but a bunch of swindeling sloths. That love having all of the labor. Low down sneaky, no good vermin using trickery. I can get everyone to nod their heads yes to that. For about 5 seconds. Then MOST of the heads will be again nodding no after that 5 seconds. See if the confusion in your mind is the nodding of your head yes then no. Because of the confusion of your thoughts. Thats real. Once again no one in this land has had the balls to call the debt merchants usuor's. Simple fact. However to drive the point home to the source of confusion: an example. A house that takes three months to build. Takes 30 years to pay off. Confused???? Stupid deal to be in. Then you rationalize and then resign. Now you know why.
Raven Stole My Potato
2011 Dec 26, 1:23am
Guys, it's not going to be fixed, none of it. What can we return to anyway? What could we return to "If" anything could be fixed? More borrowing, more frivolous spending, more credit card abuse, more home equity abuse, more job outsourcing, new alien style finacial wizardry to con more foreign investors, What? There are roughly 76 million boomers retiring and they now want to sell everything they have to retain a pittance of a retirement and this just adds to the housing problem..
Here's another thought, If a jet airliner is headed strait for the ground to crash and has only 100 feet to go before it hits the ground, do your actually think that changing pilots will stop the crash or fix anything or return us to anything? If Ron Paul is allowed to win by the elites, it won't be to fix anything, it will be to throw him and the TP and the OWS and the Republican party under the bus all at once and let them take the blame for the crash of the country. Once they are all out of the way, it will be clear sailing for the Fascist/Socialists to complete their mission.
Folks, all this discussion of rising interest rates, changes in polititians, NAR lies or not, bears and bulls is all for naught. America is that Jet Liner and we are months or weeks before the final crash. I would simply suggest that you all just prepare yourselves for some lifestyle changes you never believed possible.
EastCoastBubbleBoy
2011 Dec 26, 8:49pm
(Please excuse my spelling - too busy to spell check this one)
They announce that we are (and have been) in a recession sometime towards the end of the spring / early summer.
Election politics will get ugly.
Prices down 4% Year over year nationally, but some areas have (or are close to) bottoming, and start to recover.
The 2012 mayan end of age hype catches up with us. Otherwise ordinary people start behving irrationally, undermining one of the key tennants of our financial sytem - rational behavior. Not sure how it manifests itself, but the reprecussions will be ugly once 2012 comes to a close without any extinction type incidents occuring.
B.A.C.A.H.
2011 Dec 27, 2:15am
Election politics will get ugly.
Yep. This is how ugly it will get, like 1968:
If, for whatever reason (economy, Republican infighting, etc.), Obama's campaign starts looking ilke a juggernaut in comparison to any Republican "alternative", then Obama won't live to win the election. Like the Kennedy brothers didn't live to win theirs. Like Reagan "getting in the way" almost didn't live to be reelected.
JodyChunder
2011 Dec 27, 3:25pm
does any one else feel POSITIVE about this coming year? I feel change is coming.
In 2012
Someone will get elected and the banks will put in their man as Treasury Secretary.
RE market will continue to have bottomed
More and more low wage temp jobs with no benefits will make up the job recovery
A war may be started as a stimulus package for the Pentagon Suppliers Group as the other two wind down
Rentals will still be horrible
Homes will remain overpriced
Banks will charge us interest to store our money
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I understand that the macro economic picture remains murky, and this slow moving train wreck has already lasted longer than most had ever predicted, but what does your instinct tell you for 2012?
Some are seeing depreciation coming to the core. Others see wealth transfer and information jobs keeping Bay Area Fortress prices high.
For me, I feel the old truism, "You can't fight the Fed". As long as the Fed keeps interest rates at historic lows, it will be hard to move housing prices down quickly. I see 2012 pushing prices down a 2-3% real and thus 3-4% nominal.
One possible big mover would be European or Japanese debt repudiation. The loss of a big chunk of retirement assets could hasten sales, but what a pyric victory.
#housing