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China isn't a Tiger


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2019 Sep 13, 5:02pm   933 views  10 comments

by MisdemeanorRebel   ➕follow (12)   💰tip   ignore  

China’s economy isn’t what it used to be (at least as recently as last week). Four intrepid economists—Wei Chen, Xilu Chen and Michael Song of the Chinese University of Hong Kong, along with Chang-Tai Hsieh of the University of Chicago—have taken a fine-toothed comb to Chinese economic data to try to tease out China's true rate of economic growth since 2008. Not surprisingly, they found that China has been over-reporting its growth rate by an average of 1.7 percentage points every year.

Shave off a little growth every year for the last dozen years ago, and the cumulative effect is that China is now overstating its true GDP by nearly 20 percent.


The four economists’ “forensic examination” of China’s GDP figures relied on hard-to-fake data like tax receipts, nighttime light intensity observed from satellites, electricity generation, railway cargo and merchandise exports to estimate China’s true growth rate since the 2008 Global Financial Crisis. Their estimates are both much more volatile and nearly always lower than the figures reported by China’s National Bureau of Statistics.

China’s 2018 GDP on China’s official statistical website shows that ¥93.15 trillion translates to around $13.4 trillion in U.S. dollars. That compares to $20.5 trillion for the United States, valuing China's economy at about 65 percent of the size of America's. Of course, China has more than four times the population of the United States, so in per capita terms China is still way behind at $9,800 compared to nearly $63,000 for the United States.

No one except the Western news media and the Communist Party of China ever believed those figures, but now we know they are fake. The four economists’ new figures, published Thursday in one of the Brookings Institution’s working papers, suggest that both GDP and GDP growth in China are far below what the headlines say. Assuming that China was accurately reporting its GDP figures back in 2008, the new estimate for 2018 would be $11.1 trillion, or only about 54 percent of the size of the American economy.

https://nationalinterest.org/feature/chinas-economy-not-so-big-after-all-46887

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1   B.A.C.A.H.   2019 Sep 13, 5:34pm  

First it was the Soviet Union.
Then, Japan Inc.
Now China.
2   MisdemeanorRebel   2019 Sep 14, 8:29pm  

China's first carrier aircraft, the J-15, was copied from the trainer version of the Su-33 (navalized Su-27). It completely sucks, it's heavy, and a pilots hate the aircraft.

Copying isn't always a good idea.
https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/russia-angry-china-stole-and-copied-its-jet-fighter-designs-80351
3   Patrick   2019 Sep 20, 7:27am  

Summary of China which I think is true:

https://io9.gizmodo.com/is-china-selectively-breeding-a-new-generation-of-geniu-455634018

The Chinese Communist party has never really sought global domination. They think of it as restoring China to its rightful and historical place as the central culture of humanity. Europe got a temporary advantage, but they’re just restoring the natural balance as the world’s most populous country. I don’t think they have any imperial ambitions to spread China’s borders—they’re not going to act like Nazi Germany or America in the 20th century—but they do want respect and they do want influence and they don’t trust America or Europe to run the world in the right way, in terms of issues like global warming or equality or economic stability.
4   FortwayeAsFuckJoeBiden   2019 Sep 20, 9:04am  

They can overrun any country with their military.

Thank his we have an ocean between us.
5   indc   2019 Sep 20, 9:17am  

Patrick says
Summary of China which I think is true:

https://io9.gizmodo.com/is-china-selectively-breeding-a-new-generation-of-geniu-455634018

The Chinese Communist party has never really sought global domination. They think of it as restoring China to its rightful and historical place as the central culture of humanity. Europe got a temporary advantage, but they’re just restoring the natural balance as the world’s most populous country. I don’t think they have any imperial ambitions to spread China’s borders—they’re not going to act like Nazi Germany or America in the 20th century—but they do want respect and they do want influence and they don’t trust America or Europe to run the world in the right way, in terms of issues like global warming or equality or economic stability.


Just because europe and americas are safe doesn't mean world is safe. Did the author think of other asian countries? Or even africa? They are sending secret armadas into Indian ocean now. And their ships are reaching south american coasts. What do you think it means?
6   MisdemeanorRebel   2019 Sep 20, 1:23pm  

indc says
Just because europe and americas are safe doesn't mean world is safe. Did the author think of other asian countries? Or even africa? They are sending secret armadas into Indian ocean now. And their ships are reaching south american coasts. What do you think it means?


No Armada is secret; China, Russia, India, the US, Europe, all have spy satellites

The Indian Navy would beat the shit out of any Chinese Force operating in the Indian Sea or Bay of Bengal. It would be the 1971 War all over again. The Indians are also far more advanced in carrier operations.

The only real threat is subs, but subs need rearming and refueling. The Straits of Singapore are narrow, then there is the Java Straits, or it's a very, very long detour.
7   Rin   2019 Sep 20, 1:47pm  

Patrick says
They think of it as restoring China to its rightful and historical place as the central culture of humanity.


When was this? I think at most, China was the center of east Asia, expecting tributes from the nation-states along the Pacific Rim.

The actual center of culture of humanity was the ancient Persian Empire, inaugurated by Cyrus the Great and ended, not by Alexander the Great (according to stupid bible readers), but by the Caliphate of Babylon and his barbaric Islamic hordes in 651 AD. Afterwards, there was no central civilization, just a bunch of geocentric polarities.

The empire at one end was adjacent to Rome/Greece, then the Sudan/Ethiopia in Africa as another corner, the pre-Soviet Union territories up to the north, and finally, India & China on its eastern flanks. That makes for the center of humanity esp given the fact that it hosted nearly all of the world's religions including Buddhism, Zoroastrianism, Christianity (including the splits like Nestorianism, etc), Judaism, and even Hinduism esp near the Indus Valley border, along with the silk road which linked all the corners of the known world for the time.

If anything, China was the only ancient empire, who wasn't completely conquered by either Islamists or European colonialists up until the 1830s Opium Wars, that lost all of its power on its own accord.

The Persian Empire, at least the pre-Islamic one, earmarked by Cyrus the Great, was the United States of the ancient world.
8   Heraclitusstudent   2019 Sep 20, 4:35pm  

B.A.C.A.H. says
First it was the Soviet Union.
Then, Japan Inc.
Now China.


The soviet union had a lot of nukes but a shitty economic structure. They couldn't last.
Japan has a good economic structure & tech, but ultimately they are much smaller than the US.

China... has x4 the people of the US, a good economic structure that mixes capitalism and the benefits of some central direction, top technologies, and nukes too btw. They just need to be weight more and more until everything falls in their lap.

Patrick says
They think of it as restoring China to its rightful and historical place as the central culture of humanity.


They would say they just want to stop being pushed around, but human nature and nationalism are what they are. This is what the US was saying too: we just want to be a free people. That was enough to justify attacking a lot of other countries.
9   MisdemeanorRebel   2019 Sep 20, 8:17pm  

Heraclitusstudent says
China... has x4 the people of the US, a good economic structure that mixes capitalism and the benefits of some central direction, top technologies, and nukes too btw. They just need to be weight more and more until everything falls in their lap.


80% of Chinese live within 100 miles of the coast. The next 10% within 200 miles of the coast. Most of the remaining 10% is Muslim or Mongol or Other, not Han Chinese.

China is more disproportionate than Russia in terms of core population distribution spread.

Also relatively poor in resources, almost everything they use is imported from the Phillipenes, Australia, etc.
10   Patrick   2019 Sep 20, 8:57pm  

APOCALYPSEFUCKisShostikovitch says
Every TV network in the world should have a Tiananmen Massacre Channel that runs video of the slaughter 24 hours a day and encourages piracy of its content and diversion to every Chinamen using every available channel.


I ran into a young Chinese woman at a tech meetup in SF who had never even heard about the Tiananmen masscre. She was just off the boat (well, plane).

I was stunned. I guess they are doing a pretty good job of suppressing facts in the PRC.

I encouraged her to look up the tank guy. He's perhaps my all time top hero:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tank_Man

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