patrick.net

The way it really works the best is: Make it in America and get the fu.k out of there.

A little exaggerated example would be every NHL player who finishes his career playing in US moves back to his country - either Sweden, Finland, Czech Republic, slovakia, even Russia. And that's almost without exception.

So why are they moving back? This country is fantastic for achieving your financial goals. But there are better ones to retire in late 30ties

Ironworker says

The way it really works the best is: Make it in America and get the fu.k out of there.

A little exaggerated example would be every NHL player who finishes his career playing in US moves back to his country - either Sweden, Finland, Czech Republic, slovakia, even Russia. And that's almost without exception.

So why are they moving back? This country is fantastic for achieving your financial goals. But there are better ones to retire in late 30ties

They come here to make it rich. They go back because they can live like kings. The average person is more likely to stay.

Exactly! They did their share. Paid taxes. Made other people rich too. Supported the US economy and left. There is no reason to be nationalistic.

The average person/family can save $1million if he's disciplined enough and works hard and invests in US in 15 years. Than moving somewhere else wold make them increase the quality of life substantially. So, why not?

Ironworker says

The average person/family can save $1million if he's disciplined enough and works hard and invests in US in 15 years. Than moving somewhere else wold make them increase the quality of life substantially. So, why not?

It's entirely possible if you are frugal.

One thing good about the collapse in yields

The crazy talk that rising federal debt will lead to higher interest rates...

I dare ya.. I double dare ya to make that claim anymore

Thanks, but i don't need the congratulations. Some of us stuck to our guns through all the mayhem, knowing that this was where we were headed. What i would like, is a no cost re-fi into a 15 year @ 2.0%

;o

errc says

re-fi into a 15 year @ 2.0%

Now it's 2% on 15 year.. you're getting greedy

;-)

People are asking about Italian banks now and I tell them this stat

17% of Italy's bank loans are going bad. For US banks in 2008-09 financial crisis, it was 5%

That was a weak bounce, alteady back below 1.5%, and looks poised to roll over and die.

How do you play this?

tr6 says

You will always be a second class citizen there.

But you'll be big in Japan.

Logan Mohtashami says

I dare ya.. I double dare ya to make that claim anymore

You show a 30 yrs trend as if history always moved in the same direction.
It doesn't.
Boomers retire and die.
China gets richer.
Politics change.
Printed money accumulates.

Heraclitusstudent says

You show a 30 yrs trend as if history always moved in the same direction

Logan Mohtashami says

So are you claiming that we will stagnate for the next 30 yrs? Or that the future is bright?

Heraclitusstudent says

Or that the future is bright?

So freaking bullish on America compared to the economic non sense that people are talking about.

As a demographic guy I know the limits of what a mature country can do with it's prime age labor force growth model.

However, the bears since social media was invented went hay wire crazy and a lot things that have been said about America are simply just wrong

To OP, I read that duration on bonds is good, which indicates continuing lower rates. But that does not portend good returns on investments.

Well it was easy to predict that the Fed will stay with ZIRP, so I am mildly bullish as well. Still waiting for a re-entry for an ultra-short REIT ETF like SRS, but they get more and more decimated by the low rates by the day. Patience is key.

Ironman says

Friday's gross domestic product reading fell below even the dimming hopes on Wall Street. The 1.2 percent growth rate in the second quarter combined with a downward revision to 0.8 percent the first three months of the year to produce an average growth rate of just 1 percent.

In total, it was far below the Wall Street forecast of 2.6 percent second-quarter growth.

The train is clearly slowing down already, but the market(s) will usually overshoot. Gold has $1400 in sight.

mell says

In total, it was far below the Wall Street forecast of 2.6 percent second-quarter growth.

The train is clearly slowing down already, but the market(s) will usually overshoot. Gold has $1400 in sight.

The best way to get the economy moving is to ignite housing by making mortgages easier to get.

Logan Mohtashami says

So freaking bullish on America compared to the economic non sense that people are talking about.

If things are great, why aren't yield higher?
Growth = yield, right?

Heraclitusstudent says

Logan Mohtashami says

So freaking bullish on America compared to the economic non sense that people are talking about.

If things are great, why aren't yield higher?

Growth = yield, right?

Logan is bullish for the future. The future is bright.

Strategist says

The best way to get the economy moving is to ignite housing by making mortgages easier to get.

The problem is that when those people lose their jobs they cannot pay their mortgage. This ignition is mainly benefiting people who purchase real estate and rent it out or flip it. I think housing is inevitably due for a stagnation, many people here in the bay area can hardly afford their dwellings, no matter what job they have. If there is a recession and layoffs I expect a sharp drop, otherwise just stagnation. Current prices are not sustainable.

Strategist says

Logan is bullish for the future. The future is bright.

He just posted 30yrs yields at 2%.
Doesn't sound like growth to me.

Heraclitusstudent says

Strategist says

Logan is bullish for the future. The future is bright.

He just posted 30yrs yields at 2%.

Doesn't sound like growth to me.

Low rates have traditionally spurred the economy. Lets hope it happens quickly.

Strategist says

Low rates have traditionally spurred the economy. Lets hope it happens quickly.

Because of debt. Now that everyone is saturated with debt, no one wants more. Yields don't matter.
Even the government doesn't want more debt.
That's why yields are falling.
All this means no growth.

Heraclitusstudent says

Strategist says

Low rates have traditionally spurred the economy. Lets hope it happens quickly.

Because of debt. Now that everyone is saturated with debt, no one wants more. Yield don't matter.

Even the government doesn't want more debt.

That's why yields are falling.

All this means no growth.

OK. If you were President, how would you get the economy going?

Logan is like the proverbial guy with a hammer.

Strategist says

OK. If you were President, how would you get the economy going?

The best way is shrink government fucking period. Think Calvin Coolidge.

indigenous says

Strategist says

OK. If you were President, how would you get the economy going?

The best way is shrink government fucking period. Think Calvin Coolidge.

You like what's on in Kansas?

Strategist says

OK. If you were President, how would you get the economy going?

1) I would work with the fed to send helicopter money to taxpayers.
No tax rebate or tax cut. No government debt. No private debt. No mortgage. Just the same $300 checks to everyone every month.
If and when this causes inflation, the feds would first raise rates to 5%, only then stop sending checks.

2) I would work to remove local barriers to building (zoning, building code, etc...), and make sure home building is not impeded in anyway. The only limits would be set by centralized development councils responsible for city growth and imposing building where it is needed. This would result in decreased housing prices that would free a colossal amount of spending power.

3) I would work to enforce strictly immigration laws and aggressively enforce trade standards with other nations. No exception no special pass. Lower external competition.

4) I would seek to reinforce competition on a number of areas within the US. At least 3 companies should compete for every market. No merger/buyout would be allowed in an industry outside this situation. Hospitals would be forced to publish prices on all standard procedures, and then forced to respect these prices (including all associated care) for every customers. I would also force them to publish a number of measures on quality of care such as infection rate. Universities would be forced to publish prices for all diplomas (including all associated costs) and forced to provide the same prices to everyone. Again I would force them to publish statistics by diploma such as how many graduate find jobs etc...

5) I would impose that any multinational be taxed in the US for their profits in proportion of their sales in the US. I would arrange with other G8 nations to agree on the same scheme. No exception.

6) I would enforce no attempt is made to "save" money by delaying infrastructure maintenance. I would invest on a long term infrastructure program guarantying roads, bridges, electric grid, gas, water management etc... are top notch in the US.

7) gross incomes above $1,000,000 would be taxed 50% regardless of origin.

Actually it was the loose money policies as an aftermath of WW1

Isn't she pretty

Ignore the line break out though

On another note

Revisions show 2015 was best year for GDP growth since 2006 ( 2.6%) GDP

2015 Prediction:

"In general, I predict the economy will grow at least 2.5 -2.6% in 2015, an improvement over 2014 levels. Look for job creation numbers to be between 210K – 225K with some improvement in the wage growth."

Missed the jobs number by 1K I believe ;-)

If you guys want a red flag, keep an eye out on unit labor cost

Drawdown in CPI / Unit Labor Cost: almost 6%, last seen... 1963.

and if the dollar gets stronger too

Whats next for the 10 year?

That little, sad rally was short lived. Now we're back towards 1.50% and falling.

Will mortgage rates go lower this year?

errc says

Will mortgage rates go lower this year?

Look at that 10 year at 1.60% as being the base

2012-2016

2 times we have broken down to 1.30% level

Both times needed a European event

2012 Spain default fear trade

2016 Breixt ( Over Drama event of the cycle)

3rd lower high now in place ... wedge is getting tighter and tighter

It's going to take another event to break down below 1.31%

It is a National Travesty that we are giving away our debt at such cheap prices when obviously, we could fetch MUCH higher price