patrick.net

I'm not sold yet. I think he has to be the favorite, but there is still at least an even money chance that it's a brokered convention. What happens when Trump has a sizable delegate lead but not enough? Do the Reps pick him? Or do they alienate a huge portion of their voters and pick someone else?

Probably so--but some of the winner take all states are Ohio, Florida, and Texas if I remember correctly. Home states of all of his competitors. If he wins those, he's got it. But if Kasich wins Ohio, Rubio wins Florida, and/or Cruz wins Texas--it could be a different story.

thunderlips11 says

Enthusiasm wins elections. Hillary voters are anything but: Many Hillary supporters are holding their nose.

I think it's possible for Trump to at least get some electoral votes in the general election in the Northeast this time. I'm thinking of maybe one in Maine, and MA, DE, or PA might be in play. Enthusiasm seems to run high for Trump in MA right now. MI is definitely a potential wildcard since Trump's anti-NAFTA position makes him popular there as well.

Trump ahead of Hillary in NY:

thunderlips11 says

* Received 41-44% of the Hispanic Vote, only a little less than the general vote. Running against TWO Cubans.

Probably not a lot of Cubans in Nevada. It is amazing to read "analysis" like this. The media propagates nonsense, and then expresses shock that the real world did not adhere to their nonsense. Should we be surprised that European Americans do no vote in a bloc?

Super Tuesday will be interesting. The two stooges are throwing everything and the kitchen sink at Trump and I am curious of the effect it will have. They know if Trump sweeps super Tuesday, he is unstoppable and so them and the repub establishment are throwing everything at him. Methinks even a general election candidate won't face this much fire from the oppositions party.

Telling, for too long the repubs were the party of elites and now looks like the base is fed up. I wonder if the dems base will be fed up with Hilalry the globalist-looks like no? In fact we have a few dems here who are gleeful that Hillary may win-for what, so she can sign an even bigger free trade deal. Do you folks ever think of something other than party line? No wonder 43% of this nation are independents-alas we folks don't have our own primary. Perhaps we should start our own primary for the independents, considering we are the biggest voting bock??

Christie endorses Trump. LePage endorses Trump.

Just now: Sessions endorses Trump, his first Presidential Endorsement in his Senate Career.

Sessions said "The events of history have aligned to give the people this fleeting chance to bust up the oligarchy – to take back control from the ‘Masters of the Universe’ return it to the good and decent and patriotic citizens of the United States."
http://www.businessinsider.com/jeff-sessions-donald-trump-endorses-2016-2

Huh, huh, Sessions said, like, "Oligarchy". That's like, pretty surprising, Beavis. This Trump dude Rocks, huh huh. "Yeah, Yeah".

Why, that sounds like 40s, 50s, 60s talk. Not "We have to get assraped by Globalization and learn to stop screaming and enjoy it. Maybe some Education tax credits to shut you up and feed the College Admin Complex."

Breakup of the GOP Old Guard. Enjoy it Folks!

Tomorrow from the GOPe Media: "Senator Jeff Sessions is not a REAL Conservative(tm)"

Bwhahahahahahahahahahaa.

www.youtube.com/embed/xZ83CvMKYUQ

thunderlips11 says

Tomorrow from the GOPe Media: "Senator Jeff Sessions is not a REAL Conservative(tm)"

Bwhahahahahahahahahahaa

Thunderlips, why do you have Hillary's secret lesbian lover as your Avatar?!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

No hot chicks for my Avatar until Super Tuesday. Then I have an amazing one. Hint: Motorboat paradise.

tatupu70 says

I think he has to be the favorite, but there is still at least an even money chance that it's a brokered convention.

Wrong. The money has Trump at approximately 80% chance of being the nominee at this point.

And that 20% isn't the chance of a brokered convention, it's the combination of that and or some very surprising upsets on super Tuesday.

It's done, he's got it.

But at this point the money still has Hillary about 60/40 ( i. e. 3:2 probability - not vote numbers) to win in November.

marcus says

Wrong. The money has Trump at approximately 80% chance of being the nominee at this point.

And that 20% isn't the chance of a brokered convention, it's the combination of that and or some very surprising upsets on super Tuesday.

It's done, he's got it.

But at this point the money still has Hillary about 60/40 ( i. e. 3:2 probability - not vote numbers) to win in November.

I'm not really sure it's wrong so much as a difference in opinion. If Kasich wins Ohio and Cruz wins Texas, and both stay in the race for the long haul, it will almost certainly be a brokered convention. Winning proportional states with 30-35% of the vote just doesn't give you enough delegates to win. And losing two big winner takes all states make it enough tougher. I encourage you to find a delegate counter site on the web and put in your scenario. It's more difficult than you might think to get to 1237.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/republican_delegate_count.html

I'm definitely voting for Trump regardless of whether Hillary or Bernie get the Dem spot. I actually like Trump because he's NOT a true conservative but is pro-business. I want to keep abortion and gay marriage rights, but I also want some US protectionism, lower corp taxes, higher personal taxes on the rich, and strong borders. Recipe for success.

trump is 6'2"

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/why-we-like-our-presidents-tall/

rando says

trump is 6'2"

Too tall to be a Despot.

marcus says

Wrong. The money has Trump at approximately 80% chance of being the nominee at this point.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-is-just-barely-on-track-to-win-the-gop-nomination/

Here's an actual analysis of the Republican nomination fight, using statistics to determine how many delegates each candidate should get based on previous voting and demographics. It says if everything stays the same, Trump is the nominee--but he only has a 2% margin for error. And the possibility of a brokered convention is pretty high.

They'll try to get Romney past him, if that fails, I guess the GOP will take a collective shit in their pants. Imagine it will improve the odor around Washington for about a day...

Online bettors see Donald Trump as odds-on Republican nominee

I was thinking about betting on him being the GOP nominee a year ago when the odds were heavily against him, but not being a gambling man, I didn't. I should have taken the risk on a long horse.

There's little chance he'll win the general election, but he's a shoe-in for the GOP nominee and now the odds don't make it worth betting. You'd have to bet $700 to win $100 according to the recent odds, and that's not a sufficient payout to take the chance that Trump gets killed, dies, or withdraws due to some unforeseen event.

http://nypost.com/2016/03/02/one-bookie-is-already-paying-out-bets-that-trump-wins-gop-nomination/

One bookie is already paying out bets that Trump wins GOP nomination

Dublin-based PaddyPower Betfair is already paying out about $130,000 in wagers on Trump winning the Republican nomination, following his Super Tuesday victories.

“Since 1988, the candidate to clean up on Super Tuesday has always gone on to win their party’s nomination,” Ireland’s largest bookmaking operation said in a statement on Wednesday.

Bookies occasionally pay out early for bets as a publicity stunt and/or to entice gamblers to bet their winnings.

#MittRomneySexTape

www.youtube.com/embed/7QQO-vNID-I

Trump fucking skewered the establishment again in Portland. The Trumpening is unstoppable.

donny says

I want to keep abortion and gay marriage rights, but I also want some US protectionism, lower corp taxes, higher personal taxes on the rich, and strong borders. Recipe for success

Absolutely agree. And the whole thing about immigrants is just talk - to outline his views, make them comprehensible to his base.

mell says

Trump fucking skewered the establishment again in Portland. The Trumpening is unstoppable.

Did you catch the remarks about how he could have asked Romney for a blow job in 2012 ("on his knees")?

Totally out-classed Romney - really rose above those crude establishment types!

Of course, whenever Trump is coarse and vulgar, it's the fault of liberals with their PC rules. And it goes without saying that liberals are the only real racists anyway.

HydroCabron says

Absolutely agree. And the whole thing about immigrants is just talk - to outline his views, make them comprehensible to his base.

Because Hitler and Mussolini always bragged about winning more Minority Votes than everybody else.

Sure sign of racism and fascism, that.

Update: Republican insiders think it's roughly 50/50 split between Trump winning nomination or a contested convention:

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/03/insiders-convention-is-only-chance-to-stop-trump-220205

Oh oh! Cruz will surge now- Bruce/Caitlyn Jenner supports ted Cruz!!!!!
http://www.nydailynews.com/entertainment/gossip/caitlyn-jenner-ted-cruz-trans-ambassador-article-1.2551996

I'm surprised so many think that a brokered convention is likely.

YesYNot says

I'm surprised so many think that a brokered convention is likely.

How come? Everyone talks about how Trump is winning everything so far--but he currently doesn't have 50% of the delegates.

Mostly, b/c many states are winner take all, including OH and FL. Kasich has to win OH and Rubio has to win FL to start. The party will have to spend huge amounts advertising for different people in different places to get this done, and that's hard when we live in such a connected world. The plan seems to be to keep the 3 non Trumpets in the room, but with winner take all states, they will be splitting the non-trump vote.
Those political operatives have studied the maps, though. I haven't. That's why I say I'm surprised instead of saying those guys are idiots and are wrong.

YesYNot says

Mostly, b/c many states are winner take all, including OH and FL. Kasich has to win OH and Rubio has to win FL to start. The party will have to spend huge amounts advertising for different people in different places to get this done, and that's hard when we live in such a connected world. The plan seems to be to keep the 3 non Trumpets in the room, but with winner take all states, they will be splitting the non-trump vote.

Except you want to keep Kasich in to win OH and Rubio in to try to win Florida. If Rubio can't win Florida though, I think he is out.

And if Trump loses both FL and OH, then it's almost a given that it's going to be a contested convention.

Then you've got a bunch of closed primaries coming and Cruz tends to perform well there. Personally, I think it's better than 50/50 that's it's a contested convention. Which would be must-see TV.

tatupu70 says

Personally, I think it's better than 50/50 that's it's a contested convention. Which would be must-see TV.

We can only hope. That is the best shot of the death of the Republican party.

Was I having a bad acid flashback or did Trump brag about his dick size last night? The fact checkers better get to work on that. ..

It was very 'soft' praise coming from the hyperbolic tanning machine aficionado. If he really meant it, he would have proudly announced it was 'Yuge.'

You have to love how inspiring and insightful the Republican debates have become. The only sane candidate left is Kasich, and the only people left on stage who brought useful information were the moderators.

YesYNot says

We can only hope. That is the best shot of the death of the Republican party.

Yep. Next stop: Destroy the Clinton Wing of the Democratic Party. Bernie was real close there, but the danger has faded a bit.

Graybox says

Trump is bending over the whole establishment both sides playing eye puppets as he rails them all w/o lube...

I really really do enjoy it...... He's going to bone them to the bone then, we might get to see lots of interesting things tumbling out of the closet.
I also love to see all the political correct pussys running around all butt hurt.... Some funny shit I got to admit....

thunderlips11 says

Yep. Next stop: Destroy the Clinton Wing of the Democratic Party. Bernie was real close there, but the danger has faded a bit.

Is there any chance she gets indicted? What does the immunity deal really mean?

tatupu70 says

Is there any chance she gets indicted? What does the immunity deal really mean?

I think she'll be protected as long as possible. If there wasn't a race, the GOP Congress probably would be turning up the heat on the Obama admin big time.

Immunity deal means the person in charge of the emails can tell the investigators anything and no matter what, will not be charged with a crime, even if they were complicit.

This is a big deal, I think.

Really bad. I'm trying to recall if the Wikileaks State Dept. dump happened before or after Clinton set up her server. In any case, there's very little doubt it's been hacked countless times.

thunderlips11 says

Immunity deal means the person in charge of the emails can tell the investigators anything and no matter what, will not be charged with a crime, even if they were complicit.

This is a big deal, I think.

Sorry--I mean if immunity means they have a weak case and are just buttoning everything up or if they are actually building a case against Clinton that they will pursue.

tatupu70 says

Sorry--I mean if immunity means they have a weak case and are just buttoning everything up or if they are actually building a case against Clinton that they will pursue.

The investigation is locked down pretty tight, few leaks or info has come out. FWIW, there are rumors that the FBI agents involved are getting pissed because they've felt they already have more than enough evidence to win a case, much less indict.

thunderlips11 says

The investigation is locked down pretty tight, few leaks or info has come out. FWIW, there are rumors that the FBI agents involved are getting pissed because they've felt they already have more than enough evidence to win a case, much less indict.

I wish they'd get the hell on with it then...