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Odds Of U.S. Recession Rising In Late 2015


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2015 Mar 9, 11:00pm   10,087 views  15 comments

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1   indigenous   2015 Mar 9, 11:39pm  

I don't see any indication of that on this graph?

2   Entitlemented   2015 May 1, 9:20am  

Besides Tesla, Apple, a few excellent Biotech and High tech advancements, and 1000s of social media firms, what is the real basis of the economy? It the DOW churning around 18,000 a real economy, or is it being propped up by ZIRP.

Can any show the ROI of Keynesian policies for the last 8 years?

3   tatupu70   2015 May 1, 10:10am  

Entitlemented says

Can any show the ROI of Keynesian policies for the last 8 years?

It's funny you should ask this because Keynes would have advocated a reduction in spending during "good" times. And while you can argue whether the last 5 years have really been as good as the GDP states, the Federal Government has done exactly what Keynes advocated and has reduced spending by a pretty fair amount.

4   Entitlemented   2015 May 1, 10:50am  

Yes on the Keynes rule, I have thought what Obama and Bush did are poor counterfeits to this policy.

If fed,state, local would have tightened, public jobs could have buoyed back faster? This is not true Keynesianism, but what is it then?

5   tatupu70   2015 May 1, 10:51am  

Entitlemented says

Yes on the Keynes rule, I have thought what Obama and Bush did are poor counterfeits to this policy.

How so? Do you disagree that the Fed Government has reduced spending over the last 4 years?

6   Entitlemented   2015 May 1, 11:15am  

Yes true, but cutting R&D and science and increasing spending on Social Issues may not be a plan for long term improved ROI.

7   tatupu70   2015 May 1, 11:33am  

Entitlemented says

Yes true, but cutting R&D and science and increasing spending on Social Issues may not be a plan for long term improved ROI.

Increased social spending is a good plan actually. Anything that helps reduce inequality will help the economy long term. But, the cuts should be in the military.

8   Bellingham Bill   2015 May 1, 12:33pm  

>ROI of Keynesian policies for the last 8 years

9   indigenous   2015 May 1, 12:51pm  

BULLSHIT.

10   tatupu70   2015 May 1, 1:13pm  

Call it Crazy says

"Unemployment insurance, the economists tell us, return $2 for every $1 that is put out there for unemployment insurance," Speaker Nancy Pelosi said on the House floor.

"It injects demand into the economy, it creates jobs to help reduce the deficit," Pelosi said.

Pelosi says "history shows" tax cuts do not create jobs. "It does not create jobs. I mention this because this is the context in which we bring up this tax cut for middle-income families in America today," she said.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2010/12/02/nancy_pelosi_unemployment_benefits_creates_jobs.html

Did someone smarter take over your account?

11   tatupu70   2015 May 1, 1:19pm  

Call it Crazy says

She should put all 300 million adult Americans on UE, just think how the economy would grow!

OK good. I was afraid that you were learning something from reading Pat.net. This post reminded me that you are incapable of learning...

12   Bellingham Bill   2015 May 1, 1:33pm  

The beautiful part of Social Security that people haven't fully internalized yet is that by 2030 we're going to have a veritable army of people drawing SSA checks.

shows how 2009-2014 has just been the run-up, we're in full induction mode now, and will remain in this regime right through the 2030s.

The boomers have been putting away trillions in FICA savings since the 1980s, now they're going to start spending it, along with their other savings of course.

Money is going to start falling from the sky, for restaurants, RV dealers, health care, and the senior economy in general.

And what the boomers don't spend, Gen Y will inherit.

Boomers are age 51 to 69 this year.

13   HEY YOU   2015 May 1, 2:03pm  

A recession would be an improvement compared to the Depression we've been going through.

http://www.cnsnews.com/commentary/terence-p-jeffrey/354-percent-109631000-welfare

14   EBGuy   2015 May 1, 4:07pm  

BB said: The beautiful part of Social Security that people haven't fully internalized yet is that by 2030 we're going to have a veritable army of people drawing SSA checks.
I'm trying to remain optimistic in the face of reports like this. Those who leave the workforce in 2025 can expect to devote 98% of their Social Security benefits to healthcare costs. For those who retire in 2035, the figure is 127%.

15   Bellingham Bill   2015 May 1, 4:35pm  

HEY YOU says

Depression we've been going through

So maybe time to repeal NAFTA and/or close the trade deficit with China, Mexico, Japan, and Germany?

https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/MANEMP

be nice if we had 7M more manufacturing jobs here at home, wouldn't it?

Conservatives don't have any answers that will fix anything, because it's YOUR policies that are creating our economic problems in the first place.

Viz: the GOP's "Job Creators" jazz is utter bullshit.

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