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It hasn't been pretty, however, in historical sense it really takes a country 9-12 years to fully recover from a financial depression.
Full time jobs are growing, just much more slowly, so it isn't like we are shedding full time jobs and turning them into part time jobs.
Actually that's exactly what's happening. Millions of people are being cut back to part time to keep employers from having to provide coverage under Obamacare. Other people are being hired to fill in the gaps.
Logan, see how you have been vindicated with the numbers released today.
A 1.2% drop in starts caused solely by interest rates rising.
I hope they double, triple, quadruple. Who needs social mobility.
Obviously a 300% increase in PMI is not screwing the middle class enough, force them to work two part time jobs, pay 29.99% mortgage rates and a 1000% PMI and be thankful you live in a 200 SQFT show box. As you can see it will be a felony to eat and sleep, panhandle on the streets.
http://thedailypr.com/miami-considers-jailing-homeless-people-for-eating-sleeping-in-public/
Logan, see how you have been vindicated with the numbers released today.
A 1.2% drop in starts caused solely by interest rates rising.
That's a bit of speculation there. 1.2% is noise. Attributing a cause is a bit presumptuous.
Logan, see how you have been vindicated with the numbers released today.
A 1.2% drop in starts caused solely by interest rates rising.
That's a bit of speculation there. 1.2% is noise. Attributing a cause is a bit presumptuous.
Really? I guess your not watching the markets. I can drill down a lot further with the economic data at my finger tips than most.
1.2% is not noise. It's also under the real figure. Way under.
You know what just keep believing that everything fine, nothing to see here.
It hasn't been pretty, however, in historical sense it really takes a country 9-12 years to fully recover from a financial depression.
You need to take into consideration the "JAPAN SYNDROME"... Look we have all become Japan.
Japan will never recover and neither anyone adopting the same mental polices.
Only the death of the unemployed like the deaths during WW2 will create a recovery. . Perhaps that is their plan?
How's your rental property doing now?
To be honest, today's sales report wouldn't have the full impact of the rising rates.
A more realistic number to get the impact of rising rates is going to be the August and September reports.
All Pre Q's starting in mid June and July would have the rising rates in them, if the buyer could qualify. Some buyers were Pre Q'd in March April and May
In the short term the Mortgage Applications is only clear data we have. The refinance index has just be destroyed
However, also the purchase application have had a recent negative trend as well. I believe they were at at 14% increase YOY and now down to 5%. So, the next few months of data should be interesting
Japan... Ughhh... Can they ever get inflation before demographics just destroy them... Data is a bit old but you get the Drift
The size of their QE simply is just Godzilla QE
Hey Logan,
Don't think that us sideline buyers don't exist because we do, although we may be in small numbers. It is just that we are not going to throw good money after bad. I am quite willing to give the market up to 5 years to correct. Even though I could buy right now in the RBA I choose not to because interest rates are low and home prices are high. It is my understanding that you can always renegotiate the price of the money you borrow but the sellers will never renegotiate the price of your debt. Plus, the opportunity cost of buying right now is to high. If I the market doesn't correct in the next 5 years, I can still move and buy a home cash for the same amount I would use on my down payment.
Most sideline buyers can see the righting on the wall, home price in CA are to high and if they don't correct there are plenty of opportunity out there in other markets.
"On an annual basis, the Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI) rose 5.8% from June 2012 levels"
FHFA reports prices up 7.3% increases from last years, back to Jan 2005 levels, just 11.2% below the 2007 peak
http://www.fhfa.gov/webfiles/25364/MonthlyHPIMay072313.pdf
At the peak of the markets in 2007 the 10 year was at 4.7%
At the peak of the markets in 2000 the 10 year was at 6.2%
Today we are at 2.52%
Who drew those trend lines on the GDP charts? They need some help...
Who drew those trend lines on the GDP charts? They need some help...
Who else could have but the infamous Lance Roberts!
Numbers out today from MBA:
The Refinance Index decreased 1 percent from the previous week driven by a 12 percent drop in the Government Refinance index while the Conventional Refinance index rose by 2 percent. The Refinance Index is at the lowest level since July 2011. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 2 percent from one week earlier.
I like the godzilla & monster picture. :)
the part time vs full time graph is also very telling.
so incomes are flat or down. # of employed is down, # of houses is up, new housing starts is down ...
wonder which way home prices is gonna go ? (long term) soon as banks get solvent enough to do mass foreclosures ... we will be in for a rocky ride
wonder which way home prices is gonna go ?
Rates will continue to climb followed by supply / demand reversal...
Per LPS: Today
June “First Look†Mortgage Report: After Five Consecutive Months of Declines, Delinquency Rate Sees Seasonal Spike of Nearly 10 Percent
LPS’ June “First Look†Mortgage Report: After Five Consecutive Months of Declines, Delinquency Rate Sees Seasonal Spike of Nearly 10 Percent
Number of properties that are 30 or more days past due, but not in foreclosure: (A) 3,328,000
Number of properties that are 90 or more days delinquent, but not in foreclosure: 1,345,000
Number of properties in foreclosure pre-sale inventory: (B) 1,458,000
Number of properties that are 30 or more days delinquent or in foreclosure: (A+B) 4,785,000
The timeline to get these homes to market is just too long.
Plus with the Robo signing settlement and the CA home ownership Act in place. A loan Mod and short sale will be the first 2 lines of options before foreclosure
judicial timeline are still long as well
With this trend we could see 7.5 months of on sale inventory in 2014
So... in this thread, you predicted 7.5 months of inventory in 2014. How did that turn out?
Also, at least at this time, you seemed to know that high inventory would be bad for prices, but now you claim something different, that today's low inventory doesn't matter.
seriously, you are an empty suit. Look good, know nothing!
that today's low inventory
Today's under 6 month inventory gives legs to pricing
But the context of the discussion was ..... People have used the low inventory to say that is why housing demand has been held back in this cycle.
My thesis is very simple
We have
Higher inventory
Lower rates
Higher Wages
Long expansion growth cycle
Still... demand is much less now than in housing ....
Come on you're better than this....give me something more juicy
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