patrick.net

drtor says

And even if that does not happen (it probably won't) there is still the very fundamental point that the banks are accumulating a lot of houses on their books.

Do you have that data? I'd be curious to see REOs by month over the last 5 years. Not delinquent, just REO.

I don't think you are right Robert.

1) During the bubble this was a prevalent practice to get folks to compete. And I know that because I've heard that straight from the horses mouth. It isn't the smartest thing to do in today environment where buyers will just walk, but it still happens all too often.

2)You have to consider accounting rules, marking loans to the market, and more accommodative reserve standards under which banks have to comply with. By clearing inventory in order to free up reserves, and house price increases will be a long time in coming.

Bottom line in this market even though listing prices are up in some areas, sale prices are going down and will be moving toward the cash equivalent for several years even under Fed's strict policy of monetizing debt. Everyone knows there is an 800lb gorilla of poorly underwritten debt that is getting shuffled around still.

If you are worried about inflation you can always buy TIPS or possibly the floaters which Treasury is planning to start issuing. Or sadly just go with too big to fail, that cash cow is always going to be there.

tatupu70 says

drtor says

And even if that does not happen (it probably won't) there is still the very fundamental point that the banks are accumulating a lot of houses on their books.

Do you have that data? I'd be curious to see REOs by month over the last 5 years. Not delinquent, just REO.

It is hard to get good data. OCHousingnews had a very good analysis with some charts the other day. It is specific to OC but probably a lot of the phenomena are similar in the BA.

http://ochousingnews.com/news/8-7-years-to-clear-orange-county-distressed-inventory-at-stable-liquidation-rate

robertoaribas says

When I list a property, what I want is it sold. period. Telling someone I have 25 offers, some over list is discouraging them from writing an offer.

Telling someone you have ZERO offers is even worse, especially if it's the truth.

The fact remains that the agent has the means, motive, and opportunity to lie about the number of offers. There is no validation, which is a huge flaw in the current system. At a real auction, you can at least SEE the other bidders even if they might be shill bidders. In real estate, you can't see and have no documentation whatsoever about other bids on perhaps the biggest purchase of your life. You just have to rely on the famed honesty and integrity of realtors, who have a big financial motive to lie, but never do that because it would make them feel bad, right?

Don't agree with any of the points.

1) Realtors have a financial motive in every action they do. If so many realtors didn't do it, then I'd tend to agree and it would be a non-issue anyway, but the fact is a lot of realtors do it with the intention of creating imagined urgency to get higher and higher bids. Best and Final anyone?

2)Not sure how it is in Arizona, but here in California you can simply walk down the street and find homes with the "Chase owns this" or "BofA owns this" on the garage doors. I see it all the time, and none of these homes are on the MLS after sitting for months. Why?

3) This is the "auction" model. It's the reason why people never really get good deals on eBay. It's a means to create competition, and if you have "competing" buyers, it's always a good thing for sellers, and NEVER a good thing for buyers.

drtor says

It is hard to get good data. OCHousingnews had a very good analysis with some charts the other day. It is specific to OC but probably a lot of the phenomena are similar in the BA.
http://ochousingnews.com/news/8-7-years-to-clear-orange-county-distressed-inventory-at-stable-liquidation-rate

So it's down 12% YOY?

Telling someone you have ZERO offers is even worse, especially if it's the truth.

How do you figure. 1 offer accepted = big payday. Kicking an offer away = no sale and no payday.

Who risks $30K to gain $500??

xenogear3 says

From what I understand, robertoaribas bought a few investing houses in Phoenix. He thought that he cannot lose money because the price/rent is low. Now the summer is coming and no one wants to rent houses there.

He doesn't understand that the house in a desert is cheap for a good reason. "rent" can be 0 in a desert.

I wonder rather buy the houses near Facebook area.

Well that's a very interesting theory.

FortWayne says

Bottom line in this market even though listing prices are up in some areas, sale prices are going down and will be moving toward the cash equivalent for several years even under Fed's strict policy of monetizing debt. Everyone knows there is an 800lb gorilla of poorly underwritten debt that is getting shuffled around still.

Wrong. SALE prices are up in Phoenix. They are still heading down elsewhere, though.

I have been looking for a house for more than an year. Multiple offers do come but:

1. They don't mean house will sell for more than asking.
2. House has to be in turn key condition.

I wrote at asking on an house listed for 525k. House was in turn key condition. Seller had spent close to 80K on the house he had bought at about 425K.. He got 13 offers. Mine was 10th on the list. Highest offer was 551K. I can confirm they got 13 offers because listing agent did give us the list of offers and conveyed us that we lost the bid.

On the other house which too was in move in condition, listed for 515K, I wrote 505K, they got 4 offers and house went for 510K. Below asking. But I am not sure if they really got 4 offers because selling agent was a cheat.

robertoaribas says

There aren't ever multiple offers, the listing agent is lying.
why ridiculous? because it is idiotic.

Bottom feeders. This is true for low end properties. If the agent says he has 10 offers already for a million $ property then he is BSing.

robert is correct again as always.

I would say agents lying about other offers is rare.

Also often they will say 'other buyers are interested' this is only a sales tactic to get you to buy as all homes will get a coupla showings/phone calls. and its probably interpreted by noobs as 'multiple offers'

If you people are so certain of what is going on in the RE industry i dare you to go out and work in that field while keeping a day job (you can do it, i did it, Robert is doing it now).

So I would say me and robert have more of a reliable knowledge than the typical complainer on this complaint site.

PockyClipsNow says

robert is correct again as always.

I would say agents lying about other offers is rare.

Also often they will say 'other buyers are interested' this is only a sales tactic to get you to buy as all homes will get a coupla showings/phone calls. and its probably interpreted by noobs as 'multiple offers'

If you people are so certain of what is going on in the RE industry i dare you to go out and work in that field while keeping a day job (you can do it, i did it, Robert is doing it now).

So I would say me and robert have more of a reliable knowledge than the typical complainer on this complaint site.

I know of a place that just closed for $1.299 MM, there were 5 offers. The winning bid was all cash and had a quick close with few contingencies. It sold for the asking price and only one bid was below asking price. Some agents lie, most don't because it does not benefit them in the mid or long term. Why not? Because the best clients you can get are from personal referrals. There are a lot of misconceptions aired here by people who haven't bothered to do their homework or the math. "Agents get 6%" is my favorite. It's a 4 way split between 2 agents and 2 brokerages in most cases, half the normal sales are listed at 5% and short sales usually pay 4%.

robertoaribas says

2. The banks are fraudulently holding all the inventory back.
why ridiculousness? Well, you have obviously never worked with any banks... they are STUPID.

If banks are stupid, what does that make us?

The reason that banks hold property is that it makes their books look better and makes the chance of recouping there losses better over time.

If we are talking about neighborhoods with low vacancy and where owners are keeping up there homes, then yeah a bank will sell its assets there.

But in areas where this is not the case, they are holding a, for example, 600k asset that in reality is a 200k asset which, if sold, may get other owners in said neighborhood to walk away and give up -- in those areas I guaranfuckingtee you the banks are "managing" their inventory. This is not some urban myth.

I have two friends who work for Wells Fargo. One is dealing specifically with this stuff. He told me 4 years ago that it would take 10 years to clean this stuff up. Last week he said things were looking better and they may be slightly ahead of schedule.

Just curious, any homeowners thinking of selling?

Tom Stone says

"Agents get 6%" is my favorite. It's a 4 way split between 2 agents and 2 brokerages in most cases, half the normal sales are listed at 5% and short sales usually pay 4%.

1/2 of 1/2 is still way too much for the slime. $250 tops for them to drive me around. Considering the skill level needed, anything above that is unfair to all other professions, including McDs

Who are you working for? And why do you want this site shut down?

1) when we were searching in the South Bay, I forget how many offers we made, probably around 10. I think all but 2 had multiple offers. There were a couple we didn't offer on because we were told they had x many offers above list and we weren't going to go above list. Unlike most stories on here, we didn't get a call back begging us to resubmit an offer - the house sold.

David9 says

Who are you working for? And why do you want this site shut down?

What?

GUAB says

What?

I just think it is so obvious the CALIFORNIA real estate market is being manipulated, that is what came to mind.

tiny tina says

1) when we were searching in the South Bay, I forget how many offers we made, probably around 10. I think all but 2 had multiple offers. There were a couple we didn't offer on because we were told they had x many offers above list and we weren't going to go above list. Unlike most stories on here, we didn't get a call back begging us to resubmit an offer - the house sold.

Stay cool, be persisting and keep making offers.
I have similar experience. The house not necessary goes to the highest bid, but to the highest “stand out” offer, means all cash. Understanding your competition thinking and gaining experience you be a happy owner someday.

David9 says

GUAB says

What?

I just think it is so obvious the CALIFORNIA real estate market is being manipulated, that is what came to mind.

He's said multiple times what he's doing. So the comment doesn't really make sense.

GUAB says

He's said multiple times what he's doing. So the comment doesn't really make sense.

Sorry to hear that. But since I am and have been a high paid Analyst my whole life, I obviously make sense to some people.

Tom Stone says

Some agents lie, most don't because it does not benefit them in the mid or long term. Why not? Because the best clients you can get are from personal referrals.

This suggests the information is easily available to figure out the lie. The information is not easily available. Try figuring out at what price a house really sold. You can do it, but you'll first find misleading information, like the listed price repeated in many places.

I would think the banks HAD to keep the houses off the market to keep themselves from completely collapsing, which they pretty much did even with herculean effort from the Government.

Now, they are less scared (and better capitalized, and probably have some assurances) and can start to sell some inventory, and it will still be "less low" than it was a year or two ago. And that prevents the neighbors from panicking and dumping their houses too, right?

And the tax credit made some people buy at the wrong time, and kept the panic down too.

And now, they strangle inventory to drive prices up before they fall again.

Wouldn't that, over the course of 10s of thousands of transactions, mean lots of dough for the banks?

CL says

I would think the banks HAD to keep the houses off the market to keep themselves from completely collapsing

True. This is not rocket science, y'all, just mark-to-market accounting.

CL says

And now, they strangle inventory to drive prices up

Probably not true. May be an indirect cause, but banks are leaking properties out slowly to control their markdowns.

tiny tina says

offers we made, probably around 10. I think all but 2 had multiple offers

Makes sense. Any house worth buying is going to have more than just one person interested. It's the houses that suck that don't get multiple offers.

Tom Stone says

I know of a place that just closed for $1.299 MM, there were 5 offers. The winning bid was all cash

This is just an anecdote. Doesn't prove anything one way or another. Also, $1.3 mill buyer is a lot different from the $5-700k buyer, is different from the $150k buyer, etc. David9 says

the CALIFORNIA real estate market is being manipulated

Probably. But it's mostly amateur-level sleaziness, a la used car salesman, when it comes to the real estate burger flippers. MLS and Banks are probably the bigger and more sinister tools of manipulation. I think we're giving the RE agents way too much credit when they are really just a bunch of desperate step-n-fetchits.

robertoaribas says

The banks are fraudulently holding all the inventory back.

I'm not saying only one conclusion can be drawn from information like the following, but it seems like compelling information suggesting, perhaps legally, not fraudulenty, that banks can control inventory and alter the supply dynamic of the housing market.

http://blogs.wsj.com/deals/2011/06/29/bank-of-america-countrywide-worst-deal-in-history/

http://money.cnn.com/2010/10/08/real_estate/bank_america_50/index.htm

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/05/business/05bank.html

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/03/09/business/bank-of-america-makes-deal-on-housing.html

http://www.latimes.com/business/money/la-fi-mo-foreclosure-wave-20120411,0,3279205.story

RentingForHalfTheCost says

Tom Stone says

"Agents get 6%" is my favorite. It's a 4 way split between 2 agents and 2 brokerages in most cases, half the normal sales are listed at 5% and short sales usually pay 4%.

1/2 of 1/2 is still way too much for the slime. $250 tops for them to drive me around. Considering the skill level needed, anything above that is unfair to all other professions, including McDs

Funtime, the sales price is shown on the MLS after a sales closes under "Property History", anyone who has MLS access can find it. I have access to all of the NorCal MLS databases and that's true of any member. If you are working with an agent and curious about a particular sale they shouldn't have a problem checking and telling you what the price was. Not the terms or contingencies, just the price.

REpro says

tiny tina says

1) when we were searching in the South Bay, I forget how many offers we made, probably around 10. I think all but 2 had multiple offers. There were a couple we didn't offer on because we were told they had x many offers above list and we weren't going to go above list. Unlike most stories on here, we didn't get a call back begging us to resubmit an offer - the house sold.

Stay cool, be persisting and keep making offers.
I have similar experience. The house not necessary goes to the highest bid, but to the highest “stand out” offer, means all cash. Understanding your competition thinking and gaining experience you be a happy owner someday.

Practice may differs from county to county. For example, if I'm not wrong, the practice for Santa Clara county is the seller has to do the Property Inspection report whereas Alameda county requires buyer to do the report. In Santa Clara county, since the tightening of credit, the highest no contingency all cash offer usually wins. The rationale is about 30%-50% of the deal fell through because lenders require more downpayment than the buyer can afford to fork out. Relisting would come with stigma, so some buyers are willing to accept full cash offer that is lower than the non-cash bid.

Oh, one more thing. If your bid is within the top three, seller's agent may ask you via your agent whether you want to change your bid.

Wow...robrtoaribas continues to boast about owning a dozen or so rental properties in an area (Phoenix) that may have low inventory, but on the other hand has little constraints to development compared to most other places. If Phoenix prices do boom again, tens of thousands of new homes (supply!) will suddenly go up, just like they did year after year until recently.

Goran_K says

Don't agree with any of the points.

1) Realtors have a financial motive in every action they do.

Yeah, I know. I was raised by them.

That's why I understand them as well as I do.

That's why I didn't go into the business.

That's why most of the family can't stand my parents. They envy Dad's financial standing but at least they have their souls. His soul was gone before platform shoes and disco balls went out of style.

Tom Stone says

I have access to all of the NorCal MLS databases and that's true of any member

What percentage of home buyers have taken the time to get your access to information?

FunTime says

What percentage of home buyers have taken the time to get your access to information?

An accurate number would be difficult to gauge, but to answer your rhetorical question: it's their own damn fault if they don't do the leg work to be informed.

2. The banks are fraudulently holding all the inventory back.
why ridiculousness? ... ALSO, keeping lots of homes without collecting anything in rent would go down in history as the worst business move in history.

I can't say I agree with your assessment. It's an undisputed fact that there people that are currently living in there homes and have not paid a mortgage payment in years. They have been living rent free for years. Some for as many as five years, more than enough time for banks to foreclosure and battle there way though the court system to foreclose on the property and kick out the former owners. Some have not paid in a year and are not even in pre-foreclosure. I believe the shadow inventory is a very real, not a conspiracy theory.

2. The banks are fraudulently holding all the inventory back.

This is real.

We all agree that houses were overbuilt from 2003 to 2006.

Someone has to hold these empty houses. If banks don't have, who does?

If you have been to Phoenix, you will understand why I have no faith on Phoenix real estate. Tons of very good houses were built 20 to 30 miles from the center of Phoenix. Yet there are empty lots around Phoenix downtown. People don't care about locations.

TechGromit and xenogear3,

Where would those folks stay after eviction?
If they rent, increase competition for rental.
If they buy, increase competition for houses.
Stay with their parent, duh. Touche.

Careful about talk of shadow inventory. As if out of nowhere, supply of house would increase and those evicted folks would disappear and don't need a home. As if because of economic conditions, no new households are formed. Shadow inventory is not as scary as what permabears claimed because evicted folks need homes, new households need homes, new H1B green-card holders need homes and new EB-5 immigrants need homes.

Bitter? Hardly...you don't know the first thing about me. But I do know I don't have to troll patrick.net day in and out, brag about my properties and money, call the site useless, and call everyone here a loser and me a "little one" (that's the best you can do?) in order to make me feel good about myself. Your daily boast fests and pissing contests about the real estate market speak volumes about how INsecure you really are. I'm surprised you find so much time to grace us with your presence...aren't there just two many dollar bills to count?