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Jumbo Trouble


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2007 Sep 13, 6:18am   40,856 views  221 comments

by Patrick   ➕follow (59)   💰tip   ignore  

elephant

There have been several stories in the press lately about how it's getting hard to get a jumbo loan (>$417,000) lately, even with stellar credit and 20% down.

Have you run into anyone personally who had trouble getting a jumbo loan? What does this mean for Bay Area real estate? Did sales just completely stop?

Patrick

#housing

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153   Peter P   2007 Sep 14, 7:54am  

How about some modern impression of Art Deco lines?

154   astrid   2007 Sep 14, 7:55am  

Peter P,

That won't be necessary. You well know stand on social welfare programs and your interest in endangered species (as food) should be enough.

155   Peter P   2007 Sep 14, 7:56am  

The amendment offered by Congressmen Frank (D-MA), Gary Miller
(R-CA) and Cardoza (D-CA) raises the single-family FHA loan
limits to 125% of area median home prices and permits the
Secretary of Housing and Urban Development to grant additional
increases if required by market conditions.

Urgh. Taxachusetts and Kalifornistan.

156   GallopingCheetah   2007 Sep 14, 7:57am  

Peter,

I think the modern stuff with neutral colors is very soothing. But personality dictates that I go for vibrant, dominant colors and clean lines.

157   Peter P   2007 Sep 14, 7:58am  

You well know stand on social welfare programs and your interest in endangered species (as food) should be enough.

Huh?

158   skibum   2007 Sep 14, 7:59am  

Hello Kitty,

Now how can anyone justify FHA limits at 125% area median home price? Since when is an "above average" home something that should qualify for FHA? The logic is flawed.

Well, this organized campaign is what you get in return as a realtor (TM) for only getting the 1.5% or so of the 6% commission (3% each split between buyer and seller agents, of which half goes to the local office and NAR in combo). I hope they appreciate it in that Amway kind of way.

159   astrid   2007 Sep 14, 8:01am  

That was in your response to your quest to putting mom and kids on the street.

I quite frankly think you'd piss off more Americans if you claimed that you like cat stew with smoked dog sandwich, with horse sashimi to start.

160   astrid   2007 Sep 14, 8:03am  

I much prefer modern building with a neutral palette. Anything with a wall of floor to ceiling windows is likely to catch my attention.

161   Peter P   2007 Sep 14, 8:05am  

That was in your response to your quest to putting mom and kids on the street.

That is not my quest. It is merely a potential consequence of my quest.

I quite frankly think you’d piss off more Americans if you claimed that you like cat stew with smoked dog sandwich, with horse sashimi to start.

My cats won't let me.

Don't they eat dogs in the Firefly universe?

162   Peter P   2007 Sep 14, 8:08am  

Anything with a wall of floor to ceiling windows is likely to catch my attention.

I like that too. It must be energy-efficient glass though. I do not want to live in a greenhouse.

Also, the view better be good. It would be pointless to see the neglected backyard of your neighbors.

163   Peter P   2007 Sep 14, 8:09am  

But personality dictates that I go for vibrant, dominant colors and clean lines.

Describe your dream yacht.

164   astrid   2007 Sep 14, 8:11am  

People who neglect their yards should be forcibly moved to apartments. If they can't be bothered to cut their grass or pave over the yard, I don't understand why they bought something with a yard.

re: cat stew - do you mean your cats won't consent to your talk of cat stew or as ingredients of cat stew?

165   Peter P   2007 Sep 14, 8:14am  

do you mean your cats won’t consent to your talk of cat stew or as ingredients of cat stew?

If I have any negative thought about cats, my older cat knows and she will respond with a devilish look. I dare not have such thoughts.

People who neglect their yards should be forcibly moved to apartments.

If I have a yard I will make it a Zen garden.

166   Allah   2007 Sep 14, 8:18am  

Describe your dream yacht.

Don't start,...this is how this whole mortgage mess started! ;)

167   astrid   2007 Sep 14, 8:22am  

I prefer a luxury RV, then I wouldn't get sea sick.

168   Peter P   2007 Sep 14, 8:25am  

I prefer a luxury RV, then I wouldn’t get sea sick.

Luxury RVs are nice. But there is a limit on how big it can get though.

169   HelloKitty   2007 Sep 14, 8:25am  

@Skibum,
Its horrifying to me that they want to extend the GSE and fha limits to the sky. Obviously if they cared about affordability they would lower them/leave them alone so prices would go down...

Median in bay area is what 700k?+ so 125% of this is 875k!

875k FHA loan!!! holy cow batman!

Randy H will be competing against FHA borrowers in Marin if this passes.

Suddenly what might happen overnight is every POS in the area would be 'worth' 875k overnight. But the foreclosure rate would be terribly high. People say 'yes but with FHA you have to actually document income...' I think there will be many many ways around that one such as 2 family household and others... brokers have shown they are great at faking anything and everthing to get a loan approved. Look at the ways they fix credit scores temporarily to push loans thru.

170   Peter P   2007 Sep 14, 8:26am  

FHA limit should be 0.

171   astrid   2007 Sep 14, 8:28am  

Maybe a luxury train...

172   Peter P   2007 Sep 14, 8:31am  

Maybe a luxury train…

I think a VIP 767 jet is more practical. ;)

173   sa   2007 Sep 14, 8:37am  

New technologies, inventions, breakthroughs are so hard to come by. The economic cycle is too long. NAR fills up the gaps in cycle. They are a good social service organization who’s bona-fide intentions are American dream of House Ownership and to make all poor people millionaires. If we don't get any other growth engine, don't worry NAR will make everyone billionaire. Keep up the good work.

174   astrid   2007 Sep 14, 8:55am  

Practicality and yachts have nothing in common.

175   sfbubblebuyer   2007 Sep 14, 9:08am  

FHA should be pegged to 2.5 times median income for the county, as should Freddie and Fannie

176   EBGuy   2007 Sep 14, 9:08am  

Buying into a communal mortgage should be the yardstick for comparison?
Hey, don't blame me, talk to the SF Board of Supervisors about their condo conversion lottery. Incidently, this is the decision we made in 2000 when my wife and I bought an undivided interest in a property that had two houses with another couple. But hey, I wanted that old school crap about being able to afford the mortgage on one salary...

Okay, the cranky pants are on a bit tight as the DQ numbers didn't seem to bear out the goodbye jumbo theory of home depreciation. I mean Contra Costa's median was even with a year ago... wtf, we all know they are getting creamed. So its mix, and the higher end (hello, jumbo) appears to be doing all right. I'm willing to give DQ another month for jumbo shock to take hold. If it doesn't, we just currently don't have the excess inventory in the fortress prime areas to drive prices down as buyer sentiment still seems to be hanging in there. Make no mistake, ARMageddon will give us the inventories that eventually turns us downward, but it is a paint drying proposition -- which is no fun when you are trying to convince folks that they should "keep the powder dry". Or tell an SF professional not to buy that TIC when it is just as "cheap" as renting...
@astrid,
How about a luxury train car?

177   sfbubblebuyer   2007 Sep 14, 9:11am  

EB, the DQ numbers are trailing. Wait till Septembers come out and you can see what the tightening on the jumbos has done to sales figures. Then you have to wait for inventory to grow, etc.

178   Peter P   2007 Sep 14, 9:16am  

FHA should be pegged to 0 times median income for the county, as should Freddie and Fannie.

179   astrid   2007 Sep 14, 9:25am  

I think private tropical island, uniformed henchmen and laser armed sharks are still the henchmarks to go by.

180   sfbubblebuyer   2007 Sep 14, 9:29am  

Peter P,
I agree... but if we have to have them, they should have a better limit cap, one that already has inflation built in so you can't claim fixing problems by 'raising the limit' like they've been doing. Tying to income is better than nothing.

181   Peter P   2007 Sep 14, 9:30am  

I think private tropical island...

How about an island boat?

http://www.wally.com/jumpCh.asp?idUser=0&idChannel=172&idLang=IT&idProd=100&attivo=4&txtStartRecord=2

Uniformed henchmen are a must. Not so sure about laser-arming sharks. They belong in my soup.

182   skibum   2007 Sep 14, 9:32am  

EBGuy and SFBB,

DQ is definitely a trailing indicator. They record closed sales. That means the August numbers are for purchase agreements signed in June and July, some in August. The effects will be seen in September's number more, but October and beyond even more, unless the situation loosens up considerably.

My anectodal MLS searches through areas of interest in the Fortress show a noticeable slowdown, as even more than usual, the same crap hangs around. The previously very brisk areas (Palo Alto, Los Altos, Menlo Park), have noticeably slowed down, but there seem to still be places going under agreement, albeit at a much slower rate.

183   skibum   2007 Sep 14, 9:34am  

EBGuy,

I'm not trying to kill the messenger on the TIC thing. :)

I will say though, in response to your "Or tell an SF professional not to buy that TIC when it is just as “cheap” as renting…" that in fact, tell the fabled SF professional - how would you feel if you bought a TIC now, and it turns out in 1-2 years, that same amount of money would have gotten you a nice condo, sans communal mortgage?

184   astrid   2007 Sep 14, 9:42am  

henchmark = benchmark

185   Peter P   2007 Sep 14, 9:50am  

henchmark = benchmark

Henchmen Benchmark.

I am thinking about gray jumpsuits with yellow and red strips for my henchmen. :lol:

186   PCF   2007 Sep 14, 10:03am  

I was wondering if anyone read that article on www. sfgate.com about rent prices today. I am new to this blog and reading the various comments have made me more comfortable with my decision to rent for a while. But the article stated that rents are starting to soar and went on and on and generally sounded scary. Does anyone agree or is this some kind of propaganda to make us qualified renters buy now. I think reading here is starting to make me paranoid about the media and real estate, but maybe that is a good thing.

187   Peter P   2007 Sep 14, 10:04am  

The recession next year will knock rent prices back down.

188   EBGuy   2007 Sep 14, 10:09am  

Okay, will loosen the cranky pants a notch until next months numbers from DQ. I did get a bit testy from the whole jumbos at 15% hysteria.
Now, regarding communal mortgages. Mine was truly communal (with four wage earners at the time), but we are now condoized and down to one wage earner per household. But that was in ye olden times (rates about 7% -- gasp!). Several banks in SF are now writing individual TIC loans so there is none of the risk of signing on the dotted line your co-owners. Plus, the banks tend to require the buyers to have a bit of skin in the game so that adds to the stability of the arrangement. That said, you can really screw yourself up if you don't read the TIC agreement and miss the part that says your share is responsible for paying the taxes and utilities on the entire building.
@sfbb
Great rant about subprime ARM buyers on Ben's about a week ago... to sum up for those who missed it: they can't afford the payments so no amount of bailout will help.
@PCF
Ess Eff is special. Hell, a couple I met recently moved back to the East Bay as it was too $%@#ing cold over there.

189   Bruce   2007 Sep 14, 10:11am  

GC:

That's essentially a Robert Adam knockoff with the exception of the frame around the mirror. If you like that style and the inlays, then R. Adam copies are what you're looking for. Near-contemporaries are Chippendale, Hepplewhite and Grinling Gibbons. English 18th c. up through about 1825.

190   sfbubblebuyer   2007 Sep 14, 10:13am  

Also, I haven't noticed rents shooting up on the peninsula. And my rent would have to shoot up by over 100% to make buying and renting equal.

191   PCF   2007 Sep 14, 10:15am  

That's a good point. I have classmates who just graduated from law school and running out to buy starter homes. I think I'll continue to rent and pay down my loans and maybe I can buy where I want in a few years. They love to throw house warming parties and BBQ's anything to get you to see what they just bought.

192   StuckInBA   2007 Sep 14, 10:17am  

Folks, go to Calculated risk and watch that "Every Breath You Take" parody on Bernanke. Good fun (nothing more).

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