patrick.net

Greenspan Says `Worst May Well Be Over’ in U.S. Housing Slump

Cool. Now they can hike interest rate without worries.

....but surely not before the election??

Robert Cote'

Your argument vis-a-vis NYC mass transit appears to be an example of the Fixed Cost Fallacy.

From Pindyck et. al. (emphasis added)

The Fixed-Cost Fallacy. This fallacy asserts that short-run competitive
prices (marginal-cost prices) will prevent producers from recovering their fixed costs. These are covered not because short-run competitive forces set price equal to marginal cost, but because, if they were not covered, investors would stop building production while demand continued to grow. This would cause shortages and result in an overall lower total profit.

You can apply this argument to infrastructure. If you don't build it, then you'll perhaps have a higher short-run "profitability", but a lower long-run overall "absolute profit".

RE: Greenspan saying the "worst is over" for the housing slowdown, remember, this is the same charlatan who went out and told everyone that ARM's were a good idea in 2005. Sure, we believe you Mr. G.

@Boston Transplant,
Yeah, I've been keeping up with that story. There are so many interesting reprecussions. It looks like units sold from 20% to over 30% below original asking. Seems pretty good, but how much of this will look like catching a falling knife a year or two down the road? This would presumably do quite a number on the comps in the area. And the truly screwed are the 65 owners who bought preconstruction and paid original asking price. Sucks to be them!

Goober brings up an interesting point. What if Greenspan was really right, this isn't a bubble, etc.? It looks like people here have previously discussed the "what if we're wrong" possibility, but it seemed to focus on whether or not people had interpreted the indicators correctly.

I would be curious to see a future picture for California, assuming rising interest rates and continued home appreciation above the rate of inflation and wage increases. How long would it take before almost no one could afford a house or even a fixed-rate loan? Would Prop 13 become a permanent barrier to people entering the state? How long before rent prices exceeded Average Joe's ability to pay on the low end? Right now a lot of middle class Californian boomers are retiring to cheaper states. Could we ever see an exodus of the basic non-tech working class?

If a moron (?) like Karr can have dream of making money telling his story, why not Casey?

Huh? I thought it was all about getting a free business-class upgrade flying from Thailand.

The Federal Reserve cares about housing quite a bit for some very good reasons, many already pointed out.

Most basic, the Fed needs to know if housing is going to deflate significantly, especially if it is nationally, because houses constitute by far the largest portion of American individual wealth. In fact, houses are really (to the Fed) just big savings accounts. If those accounts start shrinking, then the entire monetary base changes.

This doesn't mean there aren't any conspiracies. It just means that a conspiracy isn't necessary to explain why the Fed cares.

HonestHunk,

I'm a girl who is into guys, but I'm definitely not into Casey. Casey looks like a dumb slacker and talks like a dumbass. Complete turn off! You and his prison bunkmates can fight for his ass.

Neo Con Conspiracy,

I doubt Casey Serin = MarinaPrime. This Casey Serin doesn't trigger my BS detector and he plays his hapless role with aplumb. If Casey is a fake out, he deserves real kudos for doing such a convincing job.

HonestHunk Says:

any girls here? dont you think Casey is hot? he makes me wet. oooh

WTF?? Are you demented? Casey looks like a Michael Jackson Neverland ranch reject.

Ha Ha:

I think you're right about paying interest only. This turns everyone into a renter. That would be heaven for the FED & the banks - maxamizing the amount of money lent. Everone will be a slave to the banks and working on the plantation with nothing to show for it.

Paul

he makes me w**

This is borderline indecency. Please be warned.

Skibum,

I agree, in a couple years even these new buyers may look like chumps. But I still think the auction has done Boston a nice service by highlighting the fact that the market clearing price is far below what people are asking in the rest of the market. It reinforces the thought that if one buys in the next couple years it should be from a (rational) developer rather than an (emotional) individual...

Randy,

Thanks. I understand that there will always be risks as well as opportunities with relatively new fields. I think I'd strong recommend against a plain vanilla finance program for my cousin. My dad mentioned that there's a huge concentration (in the neighborhood of 80%) of Chinese students doing finance degrees in England.

I'll talk to my cousin about her personal strengths and preferences before steering her towards either a more traditional accounting program or towards something more exotic. My mom says my cousin is quite good in math and physics, so I don't think American finance math would faze her.

The nice thing about an accounting degree is like you mentioned, she can always go back for an MBA with a special focus on an area of special interest. I definitely think she's too young to fully take advantage of an MBA program.

Peter P,

Good point. I think this HonestHunk person is joking, but I'll edit the comment slightly just in case.

Do you think my gigolo comment is okay? Maybe I shouldn't have wrote that either.

SFGuy,

Thanks for the feedback. I think prostitution for both sexes is okay in Nevada, but you and Peter P are right. I'll erase my comments and edit HonestHunk's comment slightly.

do you have a guess as to what is significant to the FED? How much yoy deflation in this asset you call a “savings account as far as the FED is concerned”, can they tolerate and for how long?

Fast answer: No.

I'm not a Fed expert; some others here know a lot more about how exactly short and long rates relate to bonds, credit lending, liquidity and ultimately Fed policy.

I am a student of Neoclassic economics and Monetarist theory. Using those theories, the Fed should only be able to tolerate a very small amount of sustained housing deflation.

Say 5% per year or less. If there's more than that for long enough then the multiplier effect starts to work in reverse, and there will be widespread deflation. The Fed will not allow this under any circumstances (with their current philosophical mindset).

The multiplier effect, briefly, is just how far each dollar put into the system goes. It is great than 1 because each dollar put in to banks by the Fed is lent out, and then can be invested, recycled, and lent out again a few times. But this can work in reverse too, which would happen as equity is drained from Americans' homes over a long enough period of time.

The Fed shouldn't care too much about short-term corrections, even if they are fairly steep. 10-15% each year for 2-3 years won't directly panic the Fed. What would, though, is recession that could occur because of indirect effects of slowing housing.

Did we determine that FaceReality is really Marina Prime? I don't know about MP, but FR is definitely NOT Casey. I'm 90% sure FR used to be an Investment Banker, probably 2nd, 3rd year Analyst. This is *not* Casey as Mr. Serin has demonstrated that he couldn't work a Speak & Spell let alone an HP12C.

Do you think my gigolo comment is okay? Maybe I shouldn’t have wrote that either.

Don't worry. ;)

Did we determine that FaceReality is really Marina Prime? I don’t know about MP, but FR is definitely NOT Casey. I’m 90% sure FR used to be an Investment Banker, probably 2nd, 3rd year Analyst. This is *not* Casey as Mr. Serin has demonstrated that he couldn’t work a Speak & Spell let alone an HP12C.

Huh? FP is MP? Casey uses HP?

Blame it on the Boomers

http://cbs4boston.com/consumer/local_story_281093415.html

"So why is the Boston condo market declining? Blame it on the baby boomers.

Developers built the condos for empty nesters looking to downsize, but now the boomers are having trouble selling their suburban homes - creating decreased demand and an increase supply of condos."

Mrs. Burnside,

Please! Stay with the spirit of this thread - hatred of Big Boomer and/or Casey Serin. Let's not go into the nitty gritties of who did what when. If you can't think of something bad to say about Big Boomer, surely you can say something nasty about Casey Serin...just look at his hair!

(More seriously, the Gen-Xer dislike of boomers is not merely a form of pointless rebellion. Most Gen-Xers here, with some notable exceptions, get on quite well with their parents. We have more problems with where the Baby Boomer's ignorance and hypocrisy is taking this country. Boomer debts will seriously damage the economic stability of this country and we Gen-Xers rightfully feel our futures are being threatened by the boomers' blind self indulgence today.)

eddiamond,

First of all, I vote and I've been steadfastly against Bush II budgets and the Iraquagmire, so don't talk this false consciousness stuff with me. It's overwhelmingly the boomers and silent generation who vote and who voted for the worst presidency since at least Warren G. Harding.

No way in hell!

I say rebuild the Democratic party for the 21st century or take over the Green Party and rebuild from the ground up. Nader made his pact with the devil (and the RNC), and anyone who votes for him is either blind or a Republican.

"If it is the boomers and silent generation who vote “overwhelmingly”, isn’t the lack of participation by everyone leftover part of the problem?"

Except that the Boomers dwarf the Gen-Xers and Gen-Yers numbers wise, and they're more likely to live in "battleground" states like Florida and Ohio. Plus, it's not as if the Boomers really voted in high numbers to oust Lyndon Johnson and effectively support Eugene McCarthy. Nixon won in 1968.

Stop assigning blame to people younger than you and who had less time to do damage for Newtie and BushCo. We're bitching and strategizing here because we think you created such a hopeless situation that we have to strategize to save ourselves first.

eddiamond says: "Don’t fall victim to their divide and conquer strategy. We have a common enemy and it is not each other."

To quote Robot Chicken's emperor... "Who's they?!? What the h-ll is an Aluminum Falcon?!?"

Ed, if anyone is smart enough to implement a nation-wide divide and conquer strategy, they are probably way smarter than the common populace and therefore deserve to be in control. People are divisive on their own, without any guidance from fictional super forces like the media or political parties.

I personally have no desire to fight The Man, I just want to be one of The Man's hired thugs. By the time the truth is known, it will be too late, and I will own most of the Bay Area for pennies on the dollar. What will the truth have gotten anyone else? Nothing.

Mrs. Burnside,

You're a friend. One of my biggest frustration, and one frequently repeated by other Gen-Xer on this blog, is that many baby boomers don't even recognize the challenges for people born after 1970.

I do recognize the challenges and I have a multi-prong approach in the hopes that something works - I don't spend more than I have (to the extent that my dad is constantly calling me "too conservative"), I'm keeping an eye out for opportunities abroad or creating my own business, I'm seriously considering forgoing kids because it's so financially stressful, and while I'm still in the US, I do vote and support progressive candidates (not the unimaginative old style Democrats and Lieberman style RINOs - I support people who can still tell the difference between compromise and capitulation).

I don't really *hate* Boomers collectively and certainly not all people born between 1946 and 1965. It's just their attitude and their numerical superiority is very intimidating for younger people, esp. younger people who do know better.

eddiamond,

The people boomers have been collectively voting in since the 1970s in haven't exactly inspiring, broad minded leadership. Reagan? Bush I and II? Newtie? Delay?

goober,

I'm sorry but I cannot stand Nader. He is sanctimonious, often unrealistic to the point of harming the cause he is allegedly championing, and he sure didn't complain about the underhanded Republican help he got in the last election cycle. People who work for Nader come away with terrible experiences about his lack of humanity and his ends justify means mentality.

The Greens can be a good and influential third party, inside or outside the current two party structure, and they were smart to dump Nader in 2004. Nuff said.

PS - While I opposed US involvement in Iraq all the way, I do understand why the Democratic leadership voted yes to the war and still supported the war in 2004. They tried stalling and waiting for more evidence come in, but with a Republican majority and a president who insisted that he had all the evidence (only later to be shown unsubstantiated or completely untrue), they voted yes in hopes to have more of a say in the actual implementation of the war. They misjudged the psychopathic Bush II administration, but well intentioned normal people often misjudge psychopaths.

Even in 2004, I understood why Kerry and others were reluctant to campaign on immediate withdrawl, even though I strongly preferred Dean or Clark. The troops were there, Iraq was a mess because of US actions and we're still not sure whether the US occupation was helping or hurting. Standing against the war and "cutting and running" is may be politically impracticable, but arguably be ethically suspect.

In a political discourse, there's a fine line between being principled and being rigidly inflexible. I care about the achievable process and results more than my ideological purity.

goober,

I'm quite willing to discuss American policy with you without DS trying to impose a know-it-all Australian perspective on the matter.

To everyone else,

If this semi-political discussion of boomer-GenX divide continues further, I apologize for going really OT. I'll create a slightly more on topic thread for your discussion.

softestlanding,

Why does it seem that most of your comments are complaints about how OT the thread is getting? The best way to steer a thread on topic is to actively participate and write relevant on topic comments. Do that more often and we'll have more on topic threads.

sj_Dude,

Your comment was erased due to an obscene link. Please refrain from linking to obscene materials in the future, especially without warning!

goober,

I've already expressed my personal preferences on the matter and the current public sentiment and news out of Iraq supports your position. I think the US occupation of Iraq has been shown to do more harm than good.

Incidentally, that is also the position of the vast majority of congressional Democrats.

(Voting is a responsible work of citizenry, it's not a form of self expression for self expression's sake. Even beyond my personal disgust for Nader, I always vote with intent to chose the overall least bad choice on the ballot. For me, that least bad choice is almost never throwing my vote away.)

New thread: How is your local housing market holding up?

http://patrick.net/wp/?p=328#comments

"I disagree. If you were paying attention, you would know that Lucifer is a man of wealth AND taste. His ride would more likely be a black Gallardo."

Agreed. People do not give enough credit to Lucifer's intelligence and taste. After all, he was once one of the archangels.

That is a gorgeous car!

.....just this once, can I be Satan and drive that car?

OT (yeah, bite me ;-} )

but has anyone else noticed the synchronicity going on the the more-travelled HB blogs? Here we are slagging Boomers off, and over on Ben's there's a thread doing the same thing yesterday..? And of course, the revolving jamboree that is Housing Panic.

For one, your childhood contemporaries and brothers weren’t gettin’ their heads blown off in ‘Nam by the VC. Your campus wasn’t overrun by the National Guard takin’ shots at you on your way to class.

Ahhh the 'Nam argument, nice. Funny thing 'Nam, how many American Soldiers died? 58,209 when did you and your stoner buddies get the 'Nam memorial built (with federal funds of course)? (BTW 'Nam ended in 1975) that would be 1982.

Ok, so now lets take WWII, 407,300 US soldiers killed. When did the WWII memorial go in? (Oh, one more thing, the WWII memorial was paid for with private funds), 2004

Kindly take your self-serving bullshit boomer arguments to the AARP, get your Medicare drug card and get the little blue pill, because how do you know when the right time is?

Draft and killed in 'Nam, no, no you weren't, neither were most of your contempories Hmmm wasn't there college deferments then? And wasn't a college education in California free? Nice try at revisionism, but it just ain't flying. 'Nam like all following wars was fought by the poor and predominately black.

It seems the only reliable plan is to figure what Boomer will do next and position yourselves to take calculated advantage.

The herd instinct drove the dotcom bubble, and then moved on to residential real estate. When you’re talking about the numbers of people involved, it makes sense to identify the next dodge and put it to work for you.

Mrs. Burnside, do you have some insider boomer information you would like to share with the group? Honest we won't tell the AARP.