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You are Keynesian?
In some aspect of the economy the distribution of government support is needed
I love the MMT thesis of federal support for city jobs but for some reason they think we have 24 Million Americans who have been sitting at home watching porn and playing apps and now they stick their noses out to all the job openings in America and won't work until they get paid more.
It's a horrible economic thesis, they look like Gold Bugs when they talk economics.
Of course Bernie Sanders rejected them
I can do a much better job of promoting this economic theory than any of their people.. they're too emotional invested in thesis to see what is wrong with their sale pitch
They don't even understand the basics of unemployment claims and job openings.
I took 3 years to study them all and their sentence structure is very telling of who they're by nature
It's very frustrating because there is a place for this but they ruin it by opening their mouth
Friedman is the creator of the floating exchange rate.
How would your views change if the dollar was not king anymore?
How would your views change if the dollar was not king anymore?
In real terms the amount borrower-ed is so low becuase the demand for this is actually so little
It's the MMT bugs that make this into some non economical realitory theory that they can create inflation with their low level jobs that might not even amount to 500K people totally nation wide
In their arrogance they say .. well when inflation comes back we will reduce the spending
Now, I have heard some really ego egocentric economic theories before... However, this one the best .
But... there is no modern day country this century that can out do the dollar
China is in demographic hell
Russia as well
Europe is a mess
The rest are too small to even put up a fight
Dollar is king for a reason
You don't think inflation will come back because of the king dollar status, I'm guessing.
Many people say that China will be the revenant. I guess the thing is these things take a long time to play out.
It seems to me that engine of America's success is the market and the government inhibits far far more than it enhances.
You don't think inflation will come back because of the king dollar status, I'm guessing
Globalization, Technology, Debt and Demographics have killed inflation
Now with a strong young demographic push we might get some more inflation in the next decade
However, the last thing I am worried about here in America is core inflation taking off
How does debt kill inflation?
The ability of debt = Takes the Creations of Too many dollar chasing to many few goods away by the creation of supply of goods
Obviously in certain cases such as housing, that doesn't apply.
However, core inflation is dead
Malthus was wrong
That assumes the debt is invested in something that produces products or services. Not sure that is the case with QE.
You are saying technology is the reason that Malthus was wrong and why you are not worried about core inflation.
Fair enough.
Many say that the investment in small business is at an all time low, in the US.
Because of demographics? or malinvestment? or just not the case?
Because of demographics? or malinvestment? or just not the case?
I will say this.
In a few years we will have a massive young work force and they will create some small business growth
However, it's harder and harder to take on risk and still pay the bills.
I signed a contract with a housing tech company Zenehome.com which is now moving to another company.
However, these were kids, engineers writing code and it was a risk for them to take on this challenge and still make money to live.
Need some capital and that capital is getting more and more difficult to obtain.
If there is one thing that I wish to see, more risk taking and more creation of small business. This is where the federal government can really step in to provide more capital
This is where the federal government can really step in to provide more capital
Instead they support the crony TBTF types. IOW a transgression against the very engine that created the higher standard of living.
BTW what is your thesis?
#QE wouldn't have the economic impact because the demand curve of this cycle was limited with demographics.
Low rates didn't push the curve of housing sales growth as they thought it would have. Same thing with low gas prices, people thought that would be a big boost to retail sales.
That's not how economics work, banks don't lend out excess reserve, banks now lend out to demand and the demand curve was never going to be strong.
Now, on a bright note. The Recent Fed White Paper acknowledged this so we won't see QE4 in this cycle if anything it made a case for fiscal stimulus
Some times you need to fail badly to know why you were wrong
Good thesis.
If housing economist, the Fed and analyst understood this better they wouldn't be running around trying to find excuses of low sales demand
Demographics are much more powerful than low rates. Hopefully, praying that this is understood in this cycle
Debating MMT economist, I can see that they weren't versed in demographic economics because they believed housing sales are so awful and they make the assumption that home sales are bad because people don't make enough money and that 1996-2007 was all just a bubble.
Tsk Tsk..... Most called for a recession talking away on twitter that falling deficits are recessionary economics not that it just runs with a business cycle
Yes you have pointed out that demographics trump any theories, that is hard to disagree with.
That chart portends this.
The Austrians say that business cycles are a result of government intervention.
Malthus was wrong
Malthus was absolutely right. We can't grow exponentially forever and it is an obvious fact.
Malthus was absolutely right. We can't grow exponentially forever and it is an obvious fact.
He never could have imagined the technology advances and globalization itself
This is why we have the line... never say never
He never could have imagined the technology advances and globalization itself
Technology can't fundamentally change the underlying physics and biology of the planet. You can't have unlimited exponential growth on a finite world.
The reason we haven't been visited or conquered by aliens is probably because there is no way to remotely approach lightspeed, period.
Also, those increased yields are a function of increased inputs, many of which are finite, like fertilizer, and create their own effects on the food chain (eg, nitrate runoff into waterways, killing fish and acidifying the oceans, reducing other food sources).
He never could have imagined the technology advances and globalization itself
Technology can't fundamentally change the underlying physics and biology of the planet. You can't have unlimited exponential growth on a finite world.
Exactly. We only temporarily boosted production to continue exponential growth through the 20th century.
Space, water, energy are constraints that just can't grow, let alone grow exponentially.
Therefore Malthus was right.
We are heading toward a wall.
And we are pretty close to it now.
The perspective of adding an other 5 billions human beings on this planet by the end of the century should scare the shit out of everyone.
Global warming is a pretty mild problem in comparison.
What you two said above.. people have been saying for decades and yet Humans consume more goods and services in the last 20-30 years than the last 5,000 years combined
We are going to win this battle and Malthus was wrong as his followers have been wrong since 1920.
Humans found a way...:-)
Technology can't fundamentally change the underlying physics and biology of the planet.
In Malthus' defense the chart for technology looked like the chart for population back then i.e. it was flat not showing a hint of the exponential growth to come.
You seem to missing the power of technology and guys like Norman Borlaug which enabled the resources to expanded exponentially.
I would guess that this planet could support 100 billion people maybe more. Look at this chart
Technology can't fundamentally change the underlying physics and biology of the planet.
In Malthus' defense the chart for technology looked like the chart for population back then i.e. it was flat not showing a hint of the exponential growth to come.
You seem to missing the power of technology and guys like Norman Borlaug which enabled the resources to expanded exponentially.
I would guess that this planet could support 100 billion people maybe more. Look at this chart
Need some capital and that capital is getting more and more difficult to obtain.
With interest rates very low, indicating that money is very plentiful, why is that?
With interest rates very low, indicating that money is very plentiful, why is that?
Banks have limits on what they can give because openings up a business is always a risky bet anyway.
Federal side of the equation can take losses on the books and not even blink.
If I was King for a day, that would be one of the things I would, Which is actually a MMT thesis ...
But a Non Religious Middle Eastern Republican with a Scottish name will never be king, not even for a day. :-)
capital is getting more and more difficult to obtain.
My question is why is it getting more difficult to obtain?
Looks like the population of wolves on an island, until they eat all the deer.
People don't realize that alot of fertilizer comes directly from fossil fuel, and cannot be replaced by renewables like solar.
You are betting against technology, not a smart bet.
Maybe you should try some courses over at the Mises institute.
For a soft patch in prime labor force growth coming off the Great Recession
Not bad at all
US total #oil demand (weekly estimates) is running at 20.2m b/d. Really, really strong for this time of year
Once you adjust it to demographics then it makes sense, obviously the weakest sales demand curve is in housing.
I love the thesis.
However, 90% of their people are ego maniacs who have no back ground in economics and don't care that they're losing.
I really want this economic thesis to have some legs but &$)_# as soon their people speak it ruins everything.
For MMT to grow it needs to muzzle most of it supporters and their leaders need to be more versed in Modern Day Economics and have a understanding of demographics
Frustrating to watch them the last 3 years.
However, life is too short to deal with people who need economic intervention
#Economics