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Logan,
how is the OC market? Id love to hear what you have to say. Id also love to hear your current predictions for the rest of the year.
Logan,
how is the OC market? Id love to hear what you have to say. Id also love to hear your current predictions for the rest of the year.
Prices are up. sales are at the lowest point in 7 years in So Cal. Cash buyers are falling in volume but still big enough to give a cushion demand buyer.
My folks have put up their home up for sale for roughly 2,000,000 since Feb 9th, only one offer.
Neighbor across the street sold their home in 11 days for 2.5 million.
Enough demand to keep things moving along, low enough inventory to get prices moving higher, but considering that rates have been low all year long it's been a slow market place in relationship to that factor. I believe the YoY action is down -0.04%
Considering the low bar set last year with So Cal sales, so far it's been very sluggish
Last year after the spring season I did notice how a lot upper end income buyers were paying more for a home that they would like too but still good enough to get a loan
My buyers profile has been very diverse this year
- Boomerang
- Move up's
- First time buyer looking but nothing really going on there
- 2nd home buyers (Palm Spring)
Big down payment year so far
65% down
35% down
20% down
This was different than last year where the range was 5%-15% down
With applications showing 8 & 12 % year over year growth, the next existing home sales report should be positive and showing some decent YoY growth because it was a struggle last year during this time. The comps get a lot harder during the 2nd half of the year. However, YoY growth nationally early on will happen
@Strategist
You haven't thought of how to teach your daughter to fend for herself if Daddy's not around.
Can you imagine how much her roommates will resent her in the current finance picture that you laid out? That makes her a double mooch-- first, off of you, then off of them.
Not a flattering picture.
She is responsible because she is still driving the last gift you gave her? That's your evidence. Wow.
You haven't thought of how to teach your daughter to fend for herself if Daddy's not around.
Can you imagine how much her roommates will resent her in the current finance picture that you laid out? That makes her a double mooch-- first, off of you, then off of them.
Not a flattering picture.
Helping children is a parents job. Renting for fair rent is acceptable.
Helping children is a parents job.
Buuzzzzzz... WRONG!!!!
Preparing your children to be responsible adults who can stand on their own two feet is the parents job!
Yeah...little brats have been mooching on us since day one. Damn freeloaders.
Wait till I foreclose on her. That'll teach her.
I thought you fellers went to work on the weekend, like Phil Dunphy.
We are always working, but Joe Friday, Just the Facts Ma'am
Speaking of which I used his character in an article years ago fighting against the tight lending myth against CNBC, this one was really fun to write, but if you don't know the character you wouldn't get the sentence structure tone
Diana Olick: Just a Few Questions, Ma’am
http://loganmohtashami.com/2012/03/30/diana-olick-just-a-few-questions-maam/
Ok I misunderstood the meaning of Friday. Of course his dead pan questioning is a classic, the copper clapper caper e.g.
Good article.
We are always working, but Joe Friday, Just the Facts Ma'am
I hope you make a lot of money. Things are about to boom, just wait and see.
Things are about to boom, just wait and see.
I make money but there is no boom!
Actually, I am in the running for top 40 under the age of 40 for housing in America for different reasons. People always ask me how are you having your best years now and not the housing bubble years.
Answer is simple.
None of my own clients ever did sup prime purchase loans and only 1 client did a option arm in 2003 and that was an extreme high income net worth buyer
Answer is simple.
None of my own clients ever did sup prime purchase loans and only 1 client did a option arm in 2003 and that was an extreme high income net worth buyer
1. Your outlook on US real estate stems from your experiences in OC, which may not always be comparable to the rest of the country.
2. You probably have a large Iranian American clientele, who tend to do much better than the average American.
3. The bubble era had a lot more competition with everyone including grandma scrambling to get a real estate license.
By the way, if you unnecessarily discouraged someone from taking an option arm, you could be doing them and yourself a disservice. Option Arms are perfect for many self employed who have uneven cash flow. My very first home was with an Option Arm loan, and lied through my teeth to get.
1. Your outlook on US real estate stems from your experiences in OC, which may not always be comparable to the rest of the country.
Actually I only talk about national data, I never use my own city or county as reference, this is why you don't here me mention it much on any work that I have done Strategist says
2. You probably have a large Iranian American clientele, who tend to do much better than the average American.
I have zero clients that are Persian
3. The bubble era had a lot more competition with everyone including grandma scrambling to get a real estate license.
Not really on that sense, I just simply refused to do exotic loans on my book, none of my clients have ever had their home foreclosed on
Option Arms are perfect for many self employed who have uneven cash flow. My very first home was with an Option Arm loan, and lied through my teeth to get.
Option arm loans had a 84% default ratio in California it was so bad that every lender had to terminate the loan and offer a 30 year fix
Option Arms are perfect for many self employed who have uneven cash flow. My very first home was with an Option Arm loan, and lied through my teeth to get.
Option arm loans had a 84% default ratio in California it was so bad that every lender had to terminate the loan and offer a 30 year fix
Not all, Only Option Arm loans made during the bubble with low downs and trashy credit. I got that home in 1986, which had a start rate of 7.95%. The minimum down was 25%, which my parents helped me with.
Anyway Logan, I'm willing to bet your income will double in the next 3 years. What will you do with all that money?
Not all, Only Option Arm loans made during the bubble with low downs and trashy credit. I got that home in 1986, which had a start rate of 7.95%. The minimum down was 25%, which my parents helped me with.
I was 12 when that loan was done and those days were long gone,
The teaser rate of 1.25% 10% down came .. but even those who put 20% had trouble because they kept on paying the teaser rate
Anyway Logan, I'm willing to bet your income will double in the next 3 years. What will you do with all that money?
Invest each month, never buy another home again and pay down my home as fast as possible.
It's also impossible to triple incomes because the refinance cycle is dead. Let me give you an example
2014 was my best year ever, in the first 30 days of 2015 I got all the production I did in 2014, that was majority of refinances. A 10 year above 2.25% kills almost all refiannces in America barring a cash out or a FHA streamline. That market has ran it's course.
You would need rates to rise much higher have a duration period time and then the next recession have rates come lower.
However, we are still at Emergency Interest rate policy today and the 10 year is still below 2% in year 7 of the economic cycle
never buy another home again
2 Bedroom Condo enough for 2 people with no kids
There is a Dunkin Donuts now in the O.C.
The lines are crazy for this so I am looking at it as an investment idea
EPS 1.67
Div Yield 2.15%
Trailing 12 month 29.74%
Next leg up on west coast expansion
The lines are crazy for this so I am looking at it as an investment idea
Did you forget Krispy Cream lines in the late 90s and early 2000s? Southern Cal is the ultimate fad destination. That did not pan out so well when they expanded too fast.
I think that Krispy Cream is way better to Dunkin Donuts which is kind of like a bad McDonalds.
Did you forget Krispy Cream lines in the late 90s and early 2000s? Southern Cal is the ultimate fad destination.
Those are 2 different companies, KK was small and over valued when it came public, DD is more established and 3 year run is more in line with reality. I never thought of it as an investment idea until I saw this store open up
The lines are crazy for this so I am looking at it as an investment idea
Do it!! D.D. kicks butt to any other coffee/ doughnut place out here in the East.
If you eat enough of those donuts you will kick the bucket.
No to donuts.
It is spelled know your donuts, Krispy Kreme taste better. But they over saturated the market and they lost their novelty.
No to donuts.
70% of what I eat in my life since 1996 are protein shakes, I do allow myself to get all food on the weekends.
DD
Coffee, I liked
Donuts, not as good as my local place. However, I'm not a donut guy so I'm not an expert on this
Food items, good enough, but not good enough to wait 20 minutes for.
Looks like that model could fail if the ECB buys all the debt.
Italian economic numbers look dreadful. One thing I noticed when Italian 10 year debt got to 6% Germany felt compelled to play nice. I don't believe they really fear Greece but don't want Italy or Spain to follow in their footsteps
DD is more established and 3 year run is more in line with reality
DNKN - market cap. 4.8B on on 750M in sales = 6.4 ratio. That's pretty high valuation even in comparison to Starbucks which is 72B valuation on 16B in sales. = 4.5 ratio.
DNKN has 1.8B in debt. Why? Starbucks debt is only 2B as well.
DNKN - market cap. 4.8B on on 750M in sales = 6.4 ratio. That's pretty high valuation even in comparison to Starbucks which is 72B valuation on 16B in sales. = 4.5 ratio.
DNKN has 1.8B in debt. Why? Starbucks debt is only 2B as well.
So the 2 1/2 year run was not justified? My only thing that I am trying to get is that if this expansion does happen and it has legs since the 3 year run in the stock price is adjusting it self would it be enough to get another leg up from here into the 60's since it's early in there expansion plan
So does this mean that you have a banded your thesis that the actions doesn't impact an economic cycle?
DNKN - market cap. 4.8B on on 750M in sales = 6.4 ratio. That's pretty high valuation even in comparison to Starbucks which is 72B valuation on 16B in sales. = 4.5 ratio.
DNKN has 1.8B in debt. Why? Starbucks debt is only 2B as well.
So the 2 1/2 year run was not justified? My only thing that I am trying to get is that if this expansion does happen and it has legs since the 3 year run in the stock price is adjusting it self would it be enough to get another leg up from here into the 60's since it's early in there expansion plan
But why Dunkin Donuts? I agree they taste good, the coffee is good, but why a product that the younger generations shun? It's not gonna be the next Chipotle.
I would like to see some demographics on who eats the most donuts.
But why Dunkin Donuts?
lack of west coast expansion, legs for a move to the 60's on the stock, I believe this is just there first run out here
So, Logan, what is your opinion about the shortage of treasuries? How does that impact your economic forecasting or was this a secret that should not be revealed to the masses?
The 10 year breaks 2.25% and has follow through we could test up the range scale of 2.45% then 2.66% then 3.04%
If the 10 year can break under 1.60% we can see all time low in this cycle print of 1.34%
Liquidity is being talked about now
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http://loganmohtashami.com/2015/04/09/tight-lending-and-other-urban-legends/
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