invite responseComments 1 - 3 of 3 Search these comments
Unfortunately this does not tell us much. There is no fine-grained statistics by zip or owner's profession. As an example, consider Contra Costa county. One would think that averaging Orinda/Alamo and Concord/Pittsburgh does not make any sense but employment and RE statistics are routinely published for the whole county. And here we are talking about averaging Palo Alto and Oakland.
So it very well could be the case that even if those 10% are finally thrown out of the houses they fraudulently "acquired" prices in decent middle class areas will NOT go down sufficiently to justify buying a typical 50+ years old plywood box. Although I really hope I am wrong :) In reality, I see only very notional price declines in, say, lamoraga with a rather low number of foreclosures on the market. And I believe on the Peninsula it's even worse, at least in towns with good demographics.
Nick, I get your point, but do you really think this matters once 1 in ten homeowners get behind on their payments. I hadn't looked at Lamorinda stats lately, but at this point, I'd say they're toast (too much pent up supply in the pipeline).
Orinda: 53 foreclosures (NODS, NOTS, bank owned) to 86 homes currently for sale.
Moraga:37 foreclosures (NODS, NOTS, bank owned) to 64 homes currently for sale.
Layfayette: 63 foreclosures (NODS, NOTS, bank owned) to 106 homes currently for sale.
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2009/08/24/BUQ419D12E.DTL&ref=patrick.net
"Nearly 1 in 10 Bay Area homeowners will be at least 60 days behind on their mortgages by the end of the year, according to a forecast being issued today
In early 2007, as few as 1 out of every 100 Bay Area mortgages was delinquent
"
Read the comments on Sfgate as well.
#housing