patrick.net

Glock-n-Load says

MolotovCocktail says

Yep, we just did photos for a 2 bedroom condo with 2 baths and a 1 car garage.

$3,245/month with 20% down + condo fee of $665/month.

Almost $4,000/month for a 2 bedroom condo. This is not the city and not near a city. About an hour outside of DC.

Apparently, not enough DC grift spending has been cut.

MolotovCocktail says

Frustrating how they want to rescue price inflation. In the meantime they are subsidizing low income housing complex’s in our neighborhood goi g up, yes republican investor is building it.

“I want an old house, the older the better, as long as it is in good shape.”

I bought a 1973 custom built 3800. Sq ft wood home on the water in Tarpon Springs. Here is what I learned. Older homes have replacement problems. For instance, the size/dimensions of wood have changed over the years. Once acceptable piping made of galvanized steel needs replacing. The exterior and 3 lot 6 ft high fencing were all built from rough hewn cedar. Try replacing that in today’s market. You can’t find it. You need to find a lumber yard that will cut it for you. I am not suggesting today’s homes are superior, they are not. I now live in a cabin built in 2004. I am happy with the construction and required upkeep.

Glock-n-Load says

Almost $4,000/month for a 2 bedroom condo. This is not the city and not near a city. About an hour outside of DC.

That is high even for the near DC area.
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/213-Upper-Brook-Ter-Purcellville-VA-20132/245712317_zpid/

MolotovCocktail says

Which one do you like best?

how about the latter, except with AK's arranged in a teepee.

MolotovCocktail says

Out here 2021 was 200k, today it’s 450k. This inflation is what’s killing people.

Stocks went up about 60% during that time frame., yet I haven't heard a word about how that inflation is killing people.

When mortgage rates were 6.5% about 35% of home purchases were done all cash. Now that rates have dropped to about 6%, about 27% of purchases are done all cash. On top of that about half of 1st time buyers are getting help from their folks (people who had a decent chuck of change in stocks), and the States on average are kicking in about $10k to 1st time buyers.

Even with that volume is anemic. Not a lot of buyers and not many properties for sale.

Misc says

Stocks went up about 60% during that time frame., yet I haven't heard a word about how that inflation is killing people.

Ppl don't need stocks to live in, that's why.

Misc says

Stocks went up about 60% during that time frame., yet I haven't heard a word about how that inflation is killing people.

As of 2024–2025, the top 10% of American households hold approximately 87% to 93% of all U.S. stock market wealth, a record high that intensifies wealth inequality.

The top 1% alone controls over 50% of these corporate equities and mutual funds, while the bottom 50% of households hold roughly 0.6%–1% of stocks.

Patrick says

That could be a good thing for me.

I don't like competing against idiots who will borrow themselves into oblivion.

Are you in the market to buy?

B.A.C.A.H. says

Are you in the market to buy?

I think "I don't like competing against idiots who will borrow themselves into oblivion" is a major reason he is not in the market to buy.

HeadSet says

B.A.C.A.H. says

Are you in the market to buy?

I think "I don't like competing against idiots who will borrow themselves into oblivion" is a major reason he is not in the market to buy.

Thing is everyone just assumes prices will go up forever, which is probably true. So it became an investment. It’s stupid how our system works. We reward asset ownership, nothing else.

FortWayneHatesRealtors says

Thing is everyone just assumes prices will go up forever, which is probably true. So it became an investment. It’s stupid how our system works. We reward asset ownership, nothing else.

Not an investment, but an inflation hedge. That is why I bought a house much larger than I needed. I figured in 2014 when I bought my current residence that prices would climb to a point where we would see multi-generations per house.

FortWayneHatesRealtors says

Thing is everyone just assumes prices will go up forever, which is probably true. So it became an investment. It’s stupid how our system works. We reward asset ownership, nothing else.

Best way to price the market bottom now is to go back 10 years and if the house was bought for $100,000 then, its market price is based on 3% annual appreciation for last 10 years.

$100,000 x (1.03)^10 = $134,392

Realtors report a ‘new housing crisis’ as January home sales tank more than 8%

KEY POINTS
Sales of previously owned homes in January dropped a wider-than-expected 8.4% from December.
The median price for a home sold in January was $396,800, up 0.9% year over year and the highest January price on record.
Inventory came down from December but was still up 3.4% year over year.

January home sales fell more than 8%

High home prices, faltering supply and weaker consumer confidence in the economy all continue to weigh on the U.S. housing market. The chief economist for the National Association of Realtors, Lawrence Yun, is calling it “a new housing crisis.”

Sales of previously owned homes in January dropped a much wider-than-expected 8.4% from December to a seasonally adjusted, annualized rate of 3.91 million, according to the NAR. Sales were 4.4% lower than January 2025. That is the slowest pace since December 2023 and the biggest monthly drop since February 2022.

This count is based on closings, so contracts that were likely signed in November and December, when the average rate on the 30-year fixed mortgage didn’t move much before dropping slightly in January. That rate is now 6.1%, according to Mortgage News Daily.

Regionally, sales fell across the nation month to month but were down the most in the South and West.

“Affordability conditions are improving, with NAR’s Housing Affordability Index showing that housing is the most affordable it’s been since March 2022,” Yun said in a release. “This is due to wage gains outpacing home price growth and mortgage rates being lower than a year ago. However, supply has not kept pace and remains quite low.”

But he also noted on a call with reporters that potential buyers are “still struggling,” and “renters are not participating in housing wealth.” He characterized the current market as a crisis because, “the movement is not happening. Americans are stuck.”

Inventory came down in January from December but was still up 3.4% year over year. There were 1.22 million homes for sale at the end of January, which at the current sales pace is a 3.7-month supply. A six-month supply is considered a balanced market between buyer and seller.

Tighter supply kept home prices in positive territory. The median price for a home sold in January was $396,800, up 0.9% year over year and the highest January price on record.

“Homeowners are in a financially comfortable position as a result. Since January 2020, a typical homeowner would have accumulated $130,500 in housing wealth,” Yun added.

Homes are taking longer to sell, at 46 days in January versus 41 in January 2025. About 31% of sales were to first-time buyers, up from 28% a year ago.

Sales continue to be strongest on the higher end of the market; in fact, the only price segment in the positive from a year ago was the $1 million-plus range. Sales dropped the most for homes priced below $250,000.

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/02/12/january-homes-sales.html

Builders are having no problem selling new homes.

...because they fucking cut their prices, that's why.

AD says

FortWayneHatesRealtors says

Thing is everyone just assumes prices will go up forever, which is probably true. So it became an investment. It’s stupid how our system works. We reward asset ownership, nothing else.

Best way to price the market bottom now is to go back 10 years and if the house was bought for $100,000 then, its market price is based on 3% annual appreciation for last 10 years.

$100,000 x (1.03)^10 = $134,392

Well it’s 3x bottom now, that’s a new bottom. Inflation is a massive reason.

B.A.C.A.H. says

Are you in the market to buy?

I thought about it recently, and looked at a few places, but I just can't bear to grossly overpay relative to what the same place would cost to rent.

For me, it's a question of which appreciates faster - used housing or pms. My bet is on the latter. Since the early 'naughties housing has gone up maybe 4X while gold has been a 20 bagger.

FortWayneHatesRealtors says

Well it’s 3x bottom now, that’s a new bottom. Inflation is a massive reason.

Townhomes in Panama City Beach have gone up about 3% a year since 2016. A townhome sold for $190,000 in 2016 goes for around $253,000 now. That may stay steady at worse if the 30 yr mortgage rate remains below 6.5%.

Note annual inflation (CPI) reported this week at 2.4%, so that may help to keep the 30 yr mortgage rate below 6.1%, as it usually is 1.5% to 2% above the 10 Yr Treasury, which is usually 1.5% above the annual inflation rate.

Not sure what you mean by "3x bottom now". But I suspect that the price to income ratio for someone who only puts a 5% down payment should be no more than 4 if the 30 year mortgage rate is 6%, to get to an affordable and fair pricing.

It hasn't been a good "play" since inteerst rates normalized. There will be no crash, just slow single digit at or below inflation appreciation on average as building activity has been very low since they can't make any profit. Also there are plenty of adults living with roommates cause they cannot afford their own place, eventually being able to buy a humble abode if price inflation stops. I'd say between 1%-5% avg. yearly growth for the next 5 years. Of course you can always make some money by becoming a landlord, but it's also become a difficult side hustle these days unless you own a perfect vacation rental.

mell says

It hasn't been a good "play" since inteerst rates normalized. There will be no crash, just slow single digit at or below inflation appreciation on average as building activity has been very low since they can't make any profit. Also there are plenty of adults living with roommates cause they cannot afford their own place, eventually being able to buy a humble abode if price inflation stops. I'd say between 1%-5% avg. yearly growth for the next 5 years. Of course you can always make some money by becoming a landlord, but it's also become a difficult side hustle these days unless you own a perfect vacation rental.

In Idaho they are building thousands. Farm land disappearing, just massive housing build up.

I have a theory, can’t prove it, but I feel they artificially forced people out if the cities into country to shuffle this dying economy around. Fighting market forces.

FortWayneHatesRealtors says

In Idaho they are building thousands. Farm land disappearing, just massive housing build up.

I have a theory, can’t prove it, but I feel they artificially forced people out if the cities into country to shuffle this dying economy around. Fighting market forces.

Probably part of the flight from big cities to the country side. But net housing needs should not be increasing at the moment. Likely easier to build and get permits in Idaho. Hardly any activity in wine country, permits take forever to pull and CA will charge and arm and a leg, plus current new builds not exactly selling like hotcakes. It's a pretty balanced market right now with enough inventory but low builder activity.

MolotovCocktail says

Well, then here is this graph of US population.


https://www.macrotrends.net/global-metrics/countries/usa/united-states/population

PeopleUnited says

Well, then here is this graph of US population.

Correct. Just like when the inflation rate has decreased it does not mean prices have fallen.

HeadSet says

Well, then here is this graph of US population.

Correct. Just like when the inflation rate has decreased it does not mean prices have fallen.

Yes, population can increase by 0.1% a year still even though the population increase rate has decreased.

At least with Trump, the annual inflation is 2.4% (for CPI) versus +5% a year for Birdbrain Biden regime.

.

PeopleUnited says

MolotovCocktail says

Well, then here is this graph of US population.


https://www.macrotrends.net/global-metrics/countries/usa/united-states/population

Before or after the current push to drive immigrants out?

AD says

HeadSet says

Well, then here is this graph of US population.

Correct. Just like when the inflation rate has decreased it does not mean prices have fallen.

Yes, population can increase by 0.1% a year still even though the population increase rate has decreased.

At least with Trump, the annual inflation is 2.4% (for CPI) versus +5% a year for Birdbrain Biden regime.

.

It’s way above 2.4 bullshit number they gave out.

FortWayneHatesRealtors says

It’s way above 2.4 bullshit number they gave out.

Well they are all equally bullshit numbers, so at least inflation now is a lot lower than during Birdbrain Biden's regime.

Take a look into Japan or Italy (houses for 1 Euro).
Desirable location, mostly this means large cites - prices will keep going up. Country will suffer. No new development and houses getting older and more vacant properties.
Now, growing population vs lowering birth rate, indicate that we will have less families but more singles in rent/own demand.

MolotovCocktail says

the current push to drive immigrants out?

Might drive down rents in sanctuary cities, but aside from isolated localities (all real estate prices are local) will have minimal impact on home prices.

PeopleUnited says

MolotovCocktail says

the current push to drive immigrants out?

Might drive down rents in sanctuary cities, but aside from isolated localities (all real estate prices are local) will have minimal impact on home prices.

The immigration law enforcement this Presidency will impact predominantly sanctuary states like shithole Minnesota.

That may drive down rent some depending on the percentage of housing units rented to criminal aliens.

It might be small amount since criminal aliens over occupy rental units like 4 of them staying in a 1 bedroom unit.

.

AD says

FortWayneHatesRealtors says

It’s way above 2.4 bullshit number they gave out.

Well they are all equally bullshit numbers, so at least inflation now is a lot lower than during Birdbrain Biden's regime.

That’s probably the only one that’s right. I still remember how all prices doubled in a few weeks.

I don’t know man, I feel like government fucks us. And at our best outrage we just get them is to fuck us slightly slower.

PeopleUnited says

MolotovCocktail says

the current push to drive immigrants out?

Might drive down rents in sanctuary cities, but aside from isolated localities (all real estate prices are local) will have minimal impact on home prices.

Uh, no. US now has NET negative migration.

If that continues...and it probably will...it will have an impact.