gold & silver prices
2022 Oct 16, 12:14pm 20,544 views 237 comments
by Hircus follow (1)
Why are gold & silver prices trending down this past half year? My simplistic understanding makes me think their value should rise during times of inflation and uncertainty. Maybe they spiked at the begginning of the year due to the war, and fears have allayed since then?
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198
TheAntiPanicanLearingCenter
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2026 Jan 22, 6:06pm
TheAntiPanicanLearingCenter
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2026 Jan 22, 6:06pm
B.A.C.A.H. says
If Trump ends his Presidency with the Ayatollahs out, some Reindustrialization in, etc. the dollar will get nice n' stronk
Certainly, gold was in a bubble at $850 in January 1980. Is it in a bubble at $4940 in January 2026? Time will tell.
If Trump ends his Presidency with the Ayatollahs out, some Reindustrialization in, etc. the dollar will get nice n' stronk
199
KgK one
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2026 Jan 22, 7:53pm
After usa seized russian assets, many countries started holding gold instead of us bonds etc.
If us can just seize $ then there is no point in holding dollar n us bonds. World is soaring to lose faith in $.
If us can just seize $ then there is no point in holding dollar n us bonds. World is soaring to lose faith in $.
200
Patrick
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2026 Jan 22, 8:10pm
Patrick
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2026 Jan 22, 8:10pm
Yes, it was a disaster when Biden seized Russian assets.
Trust lost is hard to regain. Now every country realizes that it is very dangerous to hold any assets that are under US control.
Trust lost is hard to regain. Now every country realizes that it is very dangerous to hold any assets that are under US control.
201
FortWayneHatesRealtors
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2026 Jan 22, 8:13pm
That's why Trump is trying to do all this silly Peace Board stuff and having envoys with Putin. Goal is to break up BRICS, they are the system not under our control. We can't sanction away when they can trade with each other. Can't globohomo if there is no leverage.
202
Misc
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2026 Jan 22, 8:53pm
Patrick says
Most of the funds are stuck in EU banks where the EU has jurisdiction. That's why the EU were the ones trying to use the frozen Russian funds as collateral for a loan to the Ukraine. The funds are simply denominated in US dollars.
Yes, it was a disaster when Biden seized Russian assets.
Trust lost is hard to regain. Now every country realizes that it is very dangerous to hold any assets that are under US control.
Most of the funds are stuck in EU banks where the EU has jurisdiction. That's why the EU were the ones trying to use the frozen Russian funds as collateral for a loan to the Ukraine. The funds are simply denominated in US dollars.
203
Patrick
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2026 Jan 22, 9:34pm
Patrick
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2026 Jan 22, 9:34pm
You're right:
Most frozen Russian funds are under EU jurisdiction, not U.S. jurisdiction.
The European Union holds approximately €210 billion ($245 billion) of the frozen Russian assets, making it the largest single holder.
The United States holds only about $5 billion in frozen Russian assets, a small fraction of the total.
204
stereotomy
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2026 Jan 22, 9:37pm
stereotomy
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2026 Jan 22, 9:37pm
When gold hit $900 back in 1979, it was tracking the real inflation in the economy; nowdays the inflation numbers are essentially made up. In most things I think we've seen > 200% inflation over the last 20 years (housing, education, food, medical - anything you really need, not bullshit electronics).
After Volker took the US economy out to the woodshed in the early 1980's and shot it twice dead with >15% interest rates, gold dropped back to around $400 and stayed that way until the late 1990's, when the US nominally ran a surplus (mostly by legerdemain by "unifying" the budget - before then, the SS trust fund was kept separate from the Federal budget).
If the past is a guide, then wherever gold ends up, we might expect a 50% retracement to a lower, but stable value. This will only occur if a major deflationary event occurs, such as turning off the spigot of $trillions in deficit spending every year.
After Volker took the US economy out to the woodshed in the early 1980's and shot it twice dead with >15% interest rates, gold dropped back to around $400 and stayed that way until the late 1990's, when the US nominally ran a surplus (mostly by legerdemain by "unifying" the budget - before then, the SS trust fund was kept separate from the Federal budget).
If the past is a guide, then wherever gold ends up, we might expect a 50% retracement to a lower, but stable value. This will only occur if a major deflationary event occurs, such as turning off the spigot of $trillions in deficit spending every year.
205
AD
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2026 Jan 22, 9:40pm
AD
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2026 Jan 22, 9:40pm
Silver at $99 today. What is driving the 220% increase in silver prices over the last 12 months ?
Chicoms are hoarding and stockpiling since solar panels and Tomahawk cruise missiles use a lot of silver ?
Chicoms are hoarding and stockpiling since solar panels and Tomahawk cruise missiles use a lot of silver ?
206
Misc
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2026 Jan 22, 9:58pm
Commodities are very volatile.
Just look at natural gas prices over the last week. We saw an increase of 60-75% in ONE WEEK.
You can make a lot of money at market peaks, but watch that fucking timing.
Just look at natural gas prices over the last week. We saw an increase of 60-75% in ONE WEEK.
You can make a lot of money at market peaks, but watch that fucking timing.
207
AD
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2026 Jan 22, 11:35pm
AD
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2026 Jan 22, 11:35pm
stereotomy says
There is no rampant inflation, like the trade, auto and teamster unions causing massive wage inflation, and no OPEC embargo.
Eggs, gasoline, townhome rental prices, etc are all notably down in Panama City Beach.
As of January 23, 2026, the current Truflation US CPI inflation rate is 1.21%.
The Federal Reserve should just keep the Fed Funds rate around 3.75%.
And the Federal Reserve is buying about $50 billion a month in US Treasuries now since QT is over and it has not restarted QE; the purchases are replacing matured Treasuries to keep the balance sheet around $6 trillion.
After Volker took the US economy out to the woodshed in the early 1980's
There is no rampant inflation, like the trade, auto and teamster unions causing massive wage inflation, and no OPEC embargo.
Eggs, gasoline, townhome rental prices, etc are all notably down in Panama City Beach.
As of January 23, 2026, the current Truflation US CPI inflation rate is 1.21%.
The Federal Reserve should just keep the Fed Funds rate around 3.75%.
And the Federal Reserve is buying about $50 billion a month in US Treasuries now since QT is over and it has not restarted QE; the purchases are replacing matured Treasuries to keep the balance sheet around $6 trillion.
209
B.A.C.A.H.
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2026 Jan 23, 8:52am
B.A.C.A.H.
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2026 Jan 23, 8:52am
stereotomy says
Didn't hit $900. See below.
B.A.C.A.H. says
What I left off the earlier post was this calculation. Assuming the 1.3% decline in purchasing power of American wages since 1967, what costed 142 hours of median labor in January of 1980 would be expected to cost about 260 hours of median labor in January 2026. This would correspond to a gold price of about $7000 per ounce to match the January 1980 mania.
We'll find out
When gold hit $900 back in 1979,
Didn't hit $900. See below.
B.A.C.A.H. says
The peak price during my senior year of high school on January 21, 1980 was $850 per ounce.or 142 hours of median labor.
What I left off the earlier post was this calculation. Assuming the 1.3% decline in purchasing power of American wages since 1967, what costed 142 hours of median labor in January of 1980 would be expected to cost about 260 hours of median labor in January 2026. This would correspond to a gold price of about $7000 per ounce to match the January 1980 mania.
We'll find out
210
Onvacation
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2026 Jan 23, 10:26am
Onvacation
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2026 Jan 23, 10:26am
I wonder if Iwog "backed up the truck" when silver was less than $20 per ounce.
211
Patrick
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2026 Jan 23, 8:19pm
Patrick
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2026 Jan 23, 8:19pm
At a silver spot price of $100 per troy ounce, the melt value of one silver dollar is 0.7734 × $100 = $77.34
That dollar coin used to be one dollar.
That dollar coin used to be one dollar.
214
Misc
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2026 Jan 26, 11:31am
They're not reducing the amount of dollar reserves. Those are at an all-time high and are increasing.
What's happened is that the price of gold has more than doubled.
What's happened is that the price of gold has more than doubled.
215
Patrick
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2026 Jan 26, 10:26pm
Patrick
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2026 Jan 26, 10:26pm
Brave AI:
A result of Biden's mega fuck-up in freezing Russian assets.
Central banks worldwide are actively reducing U.S. dollar reserves and increasing gold holdings, marking a significant shift in global monetary policy. This trend, known as de-dollarization, has accelerated since 2022, particularly following Western sanctions on Russia that froze its foreign exchange reserves. In response, countries like China, Russia, India, Turkey, and several Middle Eastern nations have diversified their reserves by purchasing record amounts of gold—over 1,000 tonnes annually in recent years.
Gold's share in global foreign exchange reserves has risen from 13% in 2017 to nearly 20% by 2024, and it has now overtaken U.S. bonds as the largest foreign reserve asset, according to the World Gold Council. This shift reflects a strategic move to reduce exposure to U.S. financial sanctions and geopolitical risk. Gold is seen as a neutral, physically held asset that cannot be frozen or seized, unlike dollar-denominated assets held in Western institutions.
A result of Biden's mega fuck-up in freezing Russian assets.
216
Misc
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2026 Jan 26, 10:38pm
Patrick says
Didn't quite work out that way for Stalin. The first harvest season after the commies took over in the Soviet Union was an epic bust. Stalin tried to purchase grain from the UK with Russian gold, but was told they wouldn't accept Soviet gold. Mass starvation occurred in the Soviet Union. Plenty of bad blood to this day. One of the reasons Putin says that if there is a nuclear war London is the first to go.
that cannot be frozen or seized
Didn't quite work out that way for Stalin. The first harvest season after the commies took over in the Soviet Union was an epic bust. Stalin tried to purchase grain from the UK with Russian gold, but was told they wouldn't accept Soviet gold. Mass starvation occurred in the Soviet Union. Plenty of bad blood to this day. One of the reasons Putin says that if there is a nuclear war London is the first to go.
217
ForcedTQ
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2026 Jan 26, 10:47pm
Patrick says
To put that in perspective, there was a time then when 6,465 oz of silver denomination in dollars would buy the equivalent of the average $500,000 house today(and still would if physical silver)….. Pretty wild stuff, this inflation / currency devaluation is….
At a silver spot price of $100 per troy ounce, the melt value of one silver dollar is 0.7734 × $100 = $77.34
That dollar coin used to be one dollar.
To put that in perspective, there was a time then when 6,465 oz of silver denomination in dollars would buy the equivalent of the average $500,000 house today(and still would if physical silver)….. Pretty wild stuff, this inflation / currency devaluation is….
218
AD
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2026 Jan 27, 1:54pm
AD
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2026 Jan 27, 1:54pm
I think in some way Bitcoin and crypto competed with silver and gold, and explains partially why silver prices were depressed since 2012 to 2024.
Now a lot of wealth managers are recommending 3 to 5% of assets being in Bitcoin like Blackrock Bitcoin ETF.
I look at silver price manipulation being like a finger pressing down on a spring. The less manipulation means the less force of the finger against the spring.
The estimated compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for silver from its 1980 price peak to today's price is approximately 5.45% (from $49.45 per ounce on January 18, 1980, to approximately $111.71 per ounce on January 27, 2026).
The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for inflation in the US from 1980 to early 2026 is approximately 3.02% to 3.03%.
Now a lot of wealth managers are recommending 3 to 5% of assets being in Bitcoin like Blackrock Bitcoin ETF.
I look at silver price manipulation being like a finger pressing down on a spring. The less manipulation means the less force of the finger against the spring.
The estimated compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for silver from its 1980 price peak to today's price is approximately 5.45% (from $49.45 per ounce on January 18, 1980, to approximately $111.71 per ounce on January 27, 2026).
The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for inflation in the US from 1980 to early 2026 is approximately 3.02% to 3.03%.
220
AD
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2026 Jan 27, 8:57pm
AD
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2026 Jan 27, 8:57pm
Chinese Silver Fund Halts Trading as Frenzy Drives Up Premium
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/chinese-silver-fund-halts-trading-021541976.html
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/chinese-silver-fund-halts-trading-021541976.html
221
RC2006
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2026 Jan 29, 6:51am
RC2006
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2026 Jan 29, 6:51am
I know silver has been manipulated in the past but what about gold? At the rate its moving it just hit 5k and now is moving to 6k its accelerating.
222
HeadSet
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2026 Jan 29, 2:41pm
HeadSet
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2026 Jan 29, 2:41pm
RC2006 says
If gold is being manipulated up, I suspect Ft Knox is packed to the gills with gold bars.
I know silver has been manipulated in the past but what about gold? At the rate its moving it just hit 5k and now is moving to 6k its accelerating.
If gold is being manipulated up, I suspect Ft Knox is packed to the gills with gold bars.
223
stereotomy
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2026 Jan 29, 2:55pm
stereotomy
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2026 Jan 29, 2:55pm
From what I've picked up from here and there over the last several months, the Fed and the commodities dealers have been trying to manage the price of gold by having the Fed lease gold from Ft. Knox to dealers so that they can sell gold futures at low prices to keep gold down. Now all the gold has been leased out, and furthermore, the lessees won't give back the gold they've leased (technically, they're rolling over their contracts).
So Powell is correct when he says the gold is accounted for. What he isn't saying is that it's all leased out, and no one wants to give it back, so I guess they'll hold it on the books as "present."
This could be pure woo, but something has changed in the past 2 years. The big question is "why?"
So Powell is correct when he says the gold is accounted for. What he isn't saying is that it's all leased out, and no one wants to give it back, so I guess they'll hold it on the books as "present."
This could be pure woo, but something has changed in the past 2 years. The big question is "why?"
224
Misc
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2026 Jan 30, 1:17pm
Every now and then there is a day where it is shown that fiat is far superior to having a commodity backed currency.
Like today when there was a 27% drop in the price of a commodity.
Like today when there was a 27% drop in the price of a commodity.
226
stereotomy
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2026 Jan 30, 2:02pm
stereotomy
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2026 Jan 30, 2:02pm
That was a pretty savage swing for gold - from a peak of $5600 down to almost $4700 before a slight recovery. If these swings continue this could be a profitable side trade.
227
Misc
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2026 Jan 30, 7:16pm
You gotta pity those poor fuckers in China.
They only required about 17% down on silver contracts. Imagine watching the price grenade on the American markets by 27% while your markets were closed.
There are an extra few millions of Chinese getting absolutely drunk this weekend. With that one child policy, they don't even have young girls to sell to cover the losses.
They only required about 17% down on silver contracts. Imagine watching the price grenade on the American markets by 27% while your markets were closed.
There are an extra few millions of Chinese getting absolutely drunk this weekend. With that one child policy, they don't even have young girls to sell to cover the losses.
228
Maga_Chaos_Monkey
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2026 Jan 31, 10:53am
Maga_Chaos_Monkey
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2026 Jan 31, 10:53am
HeadSet says
If I recall, the 1st month of Trumps 3rd term there was some huge amount of gold being transferred from the UK to the US but the UK was having trouble getting enough of it to fulfill their obligations. I think it was government to government too?
If gold is being manipulated up, I suspect Ft Knox is packed to the gills with gold bars.
If I recall, the 1st month of Trumps 3rd term there was some huge amount of gold being transferred from the UK to the US but the UK was having trouble getting enough of it to fulfill their obligations. I think it was government to government too?
229
Misc
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2026 Feb 3, 6:04am
Looks like all those folks that decided to Short Silver and Gold... FAFO...like I said, watch that fucking timing ! ! !
230
stereotomy
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2026 Feb 4, 11:40am
stereotomy
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2026 Feb 4, 11:40am
"They" are currently spending what are declining resources to keep gold below the psychologically significant $5,000 price.
231
komputodo
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2026 Feb 4, 2:19pm
komputodo
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2026 Feb 4, 2:19pm
Misc says
how can you have a commodity backed currency when you can't exchange the currency for the commodity?
Every now and then there is a day where it is shown that fiat is far superior to having a commodity backed currency.
how can you have a commodity backed currency when you can't exchange the currency for the commodity?
232
stereotomy
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2026 Feb 4, 4:09pm
stereotomy
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2026 Feb 4, 4:09pm
stereotomy says
And there it goes - the close of US markets and the opening of Asian markets - and gold is back above $5K. Too bad "they" can't operate 24/7.
"They" are currently spending what are declining resources to keep gold below the psychologically significant $5,000 price.
And there it goes - the close of US markets and the opening of Asian markets - and gold is back above $5K. Too bad "they" can't operate 24/7.
233
AD
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2026 Feb 8, 11:01am
AD
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2026 Feb 8, 11:01am
Coin shops say they're swimming in so much silver and gold that they're having to limit purchases
https://www.businessinsider.com/coin-shops-swimming-in-silver-gold-refineries-are-full-2026-2
https://www.businessinsider.com/coin-shops-swimming-in-silver-gold-refineries-are-full-2026-2
234
stereotomy
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2026 Feb 8, 12:54pm
stereotomy
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2026 Feb 8, 12:54pm
You'll be lucky to get 25 cents on the spot price dollar at these shops.
I read it as they are complaining that they are running out of money to buy more gold. You don't hear them saying they bought too much.
I read it as they are complaining that they are running out of money to buy more gold. You don't hear them saying they bought too much.
235
Onvacation
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2026 Feb 8, 1:09pm
Onvacation
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2026 Feb 8, 1:09pm
AD says
Some shops.
There is definitely a bottleneck of people wanting to sell versus how much a coin shop CAN buy. Someone I know who runs a coin shop says the refiners only want pure silver (.999% versus .95% sterling or .90% coin silver.) He's not buying the "junk" because he cant sell it.
The refiners want pure silver right now to satisfy the industrial demand. They just melt down the pure coins and bars and mold them into industrial size bars.
The silver alloys (junk) are much harder to refine. In time they will be more in demand too.
I personally think $100 an ounce is about right considering how much it costs to mine and refine. But I have thought that for a long time. Silver price could still moonshot but I believe that is mostly speculation. If the market could truly decide price, without all of the paper derivatives weighing in, supply and demand will make an ounce of silver worth between $50 to $100.
Until the Fed prints more money...
Coin shops say they're swimming in so much silver and gold that they're having to limit purchases
Some shops.
There is definitely a bottleneck of people wanting to sell versus how much a coin shop CAN buy. Someone I know who runs a coin shop says the refiners only want pure silver (.999% versus .95% sterling or .90% coin silver.) He's not buying the "junk" because he cant sell it.
The refiners want pure silver right now to satisfy the industrial demand. They just melt down the pure coins and bars and mold them into industrial size bars.
The silver alloys (junk) are much harder to refine. In time they will be more in demand too.
I personally think $100 an ounce is about right considering how much it costs to mine and refine. But I have thought that for a long time. Silver price could still moonshot but I believe that is mostly speculation. If the market could truly decide price, without all of the paper derivatives weighing in, supply and demand will make an ounce of silver worth between $50 to $100.
Until the Fed prints more money...
236
AD
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2026 Feb 8, 1:59pm
AD
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2026 Feb 8, 1:59pm
Onvacation says
I see your point as far as industrial demand (Artificial Intelligence, solar panels, Tomahawk cruise missiles, etc) for silver. Its not just Asian consumers snatching it up.
Technically the Fed is printing money now that Quantitative Easing is over. So the Fed is in neutral status no QE or Quantitative Tightening, as it still buys US Treasuries to replace matured US Treasuries to maintain the balance sheet at around $6 trillion.
Until the Fed prints more money...
I see your point as far as industrial demand (Artificial Intelligence, solar panels, Tomahawk cruise missiles, etc) for silver. Its not just Asian consumers snatching it up.
Technically the Fed is printing money now that Quantitative Easing is over. So the Fed is in neutral status no QE or Quantitative Tightening, as it still buys US Treasuries to replace matured US Treasuries to maintain the balance sheet at around $6 trillion.
237
B.A.C.A.H.
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2026 Feb 9, 8:10am
B.A.C.A.H.
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2026 Feb 9, 8:10am
AD says
It's a bubble for gold. At peak insantiy $850 price on January 21, 1980 it traded for about 200 hours of the median US hourly wage. $5000 is about 220 today's median hourly wage.
Coin shops say they're swimming in so much silver and gold that they're having to limit purchases
https://www.businessinsider.com/coin-shops-swimming-in-silver-gold-refineries-are-full-2026-2
It's a bubble for gold. At peak insantiy $850 price on January 21, 1980 it traded for about 200 hours of the median US hourly wage. $5000 is about 220 today's median hourly wage.
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