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Boise, ID - Let's circle back in one year and see if they be right.


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2022 May 21, 10:39am   555 views  11 comments

by Al_Sharpton_for_President   ➕follow (5)   💰tip   ignore  

Boise May Be Center of Real Estate Collapse.
https://247wallst.com/housing/2022/05/20/boise-may-be-center-of-real-estate-collapse/.

The U.S. housing market is historically overvalued. Moody’s says these cities may see prices drop up to 10%.
Boise, Idaho, is nation’s most overpriced housing market, Moody’s says.
https://www.deseret.com/utah/2022/5/4/23055347/housing-market-us-predictions-historically-overvalued-crash-boise-idaho-utah-salt-lake.


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1   Booger   2022 May 21, 10:48am  

Al_Sharpton_for_President says
The U.S. housing market is historically overvalued. Moody’s says these cities may see prices drop up to 10%.


It's going to be more than 10%
2   Ceffer   2022 May 21, 10:58am  

What? Are the fiat glutted CaliforniaFucks going cheapskate on Boise?
3   GreaterNYCDude   2022 May 22, 6:32am  

It's 2022. That's 14 years after the last big hosing correction. So yes people who were latterly kids the last time around (and now are young homebuyers themselves) are in some ways repeating the mistakes of the past.




I assumed that as interest rated went up, prices would shoot up as those on the sidelines try to "lock in" their rates. From what I'm reading that may not happen. With 10% inflation, those on the sidelines may well start getting priced out, and that's when the train stops. In any asset bubble once you run out of buyers things collapse, often in epic fashion.

I've already told my wife, well catch the next cycle and sell in 2035. There a whole generation (Gen Z) that is just comming into their own, with the leading edge of that cohort being 25, more or less.
4   RC2006   2022 May 22, 7:24am  

It's got to fall here but not sure about the impact it will have. Everyone I know put a lot down or paid cash. Would have to fall over 50% for me to go underwater and even then I don't care, il just buy more and would really like a second get away home in the sticks.
5   AD   2022 May 22, 9:47am  

Booger says
It's going to be more than 10%


Yep it always comes down to reversion to the mean based on fundamentals for assets such as home price to household income ratio and price to earnings ratio.

But since housing like stocks is treated like a speculative asset, it will also suffer panic selling and over correction.

Those with cash that buy at the bottom of the panic selling are those who will make the most money.

.
6   AmericanKulak   2022 May 22, 10:05am  

ad says
Those with cash that buy at the bottom of the panic selling are those who will make the most money.


It's already happening in Orlando. A few months ago the prices began to freeze around the time Zillow beat a retreat.

Now I'm seeing "Panic Sellers" - those who were holding out for another 10-15% gain and are realizing it's better to sell now than "Be locked in forever".
8   FortwayeAsFuckJoeBiden   2022 May 22, 10:14am  

inflation in long run will make everything cost more. up and downs don’t matter.

what you see cost 5 today will be 10-20 after inflation. you all don’t remember Carter era.

tour money is worth a lot less. paper. pretty soon couns will be gone. since cost of making coins will outweight their value.
9   RC2006   2022 May 22, 10:26am  

FortwayeAsFuckJoeBiden says

inflation in long run will make everything cost more. up and downs don’t matter.

what you see cost 5 today will be 10-20 after inflation. you all don’t remember Carter era



This has been my thought on stocks and housing. My old way of calculating real appreciation of houses to before bubbles is not going to work now with current inflation.
Now it's all up to what kind of wage inflation is coming.
10   AD   2022 May 22, 10:33am  

I drew some trend lines, maximum and minimum (max and min). Housing prices have to come down at least 20% to return between those two trend lines. So if you start off at $1 and it goes up 40% in 2 years, then a 20% drop results in a price of $1 x (1+0.4) x (1- 0.2) = $1.12

.



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11   AmericanKulak   2022 May 22, 1:58pm  

FortwayeAsFuckJoeBiden says
inflation in long run will make everything cost more. up and downs don’t matter.


Except fixed rate mortgage payments ;)

Let's no let the fat banker fucks weddle and whinge their way out of it. Eat that shit sandwich, Wall Street.

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