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Clear signs of a market shift.

These are clear signs of a slowdown.

Some homebuilder comments courtesy of Rick Palacios Jr., Director of Research at John Burns Real Estate Consulting (a must follow for housing on twitter!):

Here is Rick’s summary of builder comments for various markets (emphasis added in bold):

Twitter avatar for @RickPalaciosJr
Rick Palacios Jr.
@RickPalaciosJr
April homebuilder survey results are here. Top themes: 1) Demand is slowing, namely entry-level due to payment shock. 2) Investors are pulling back. 3) Ripple effect of rising rates starting to hit move-up market. Market commentary to follow…
May 9th 2022

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#Dallas builder: “Interest lists are shrinking or buyers are truly pausing.”

#Houston builder: “Many first-time buyers simply no longer qualify with the increase in interest rates, as their debt-to-income ratio gets out of whack.”

#SanAntonio builder: “Traffic has been cut in half since the hike in rates.”

#Raleigh builder: “Investor activity has slowed dramatically.”

#Provo builder: “Investors are evaluating the investment more critically than in the past.”

#WashingtonDC builder: “Traffic half what it was in March. Worried about first time buyers. Many fewer REAL buyers than number of people collected on interest list last 6 months. Certainly more attempts [from buyers] to negotiate.”

#Seattle builder: “Pause by a large population of buyers. To achieve our desired [sales] pace, we had to make price adjustments. Rates starting to knock people out of qualification.”

#RiversideSanBernardino builder: “Cancellations are starting to creep up due to loan declines and job losses. Waiting lists are certainly smaller. Saw an immediate change in buyer behavior when rates climbed over 5%.”

#LosAngeles builder: “Buyers who are stretching to purchase have become more cautious.”

#SanDiego builder: “Buyers are definitely a bit more edgy.”

#Denver builder: “Sales are slowing due to higher prices and rates. Backlog of buyers have remained but we are seeing new prospects priced out with interest rates and anticipated payments. Conforming loans quoting over 6%.”

#Boise builder: “Rising interest rates may have pulled some buyers forward, and we expect to see a slowing of sales in the coming months as a result.”

#SaltLakeCity builder: “In our lower priced segments, buyers are compromising and reducing options.”

#Bend builder: “Our market has slowed and prices are starting to drop.”

#Atlanta builder: “Seen a decrease in the number of potential buyers who are participating in best and final offers on homes/homesites.”

#Knoxville builder: “Detached 2,000-3,000 square foot product still selling, just not with 3 buyers for every home like a few months ago.”

#Allentown builder: “Double hit of higher home prices and higher mortgage interest rates clearly has reduced the number of qualified buyers. Our waiting list is almost zero as of April 30th.”

#Philadelphia builder: “Between higher interest rates and higher sales prices, along with high gas prices and a volatile stock market, we’re seeing a pullback in our sales.”

#Tampa builder: “We’ve seen a significant shift in buyer behavior in the last 30 days. Florida was on fire and pricing has really come to a high point, and people are not willing to pay the prices anymore.”

#Indianapolis builder: “Traffic has significantly declined and people have paused on moving forward with purchases.”

#KansasCity builder: “Our lower end product has paused or slowed dramatically.”

#Columbus builder: “Higher rates are definitely tempering buyer enthusiasm and traffic.”

#Baltimore builder: “Buyers aren't putting in as many options as they did last year.”

#Reno builder: “Cancellation rate last month more than doubled from 6% to 16%. We attribute this to buyers that did not lock interest rates early in purchase process. Also seeing many buyers put buying decision on hold.”

#Fresno builder: “Finding an increase in cancellations due to the rate increase. The majority of cancellations are resulting from fear vs non-qualification.”

#Cleveland builder: “Once we reach home closings, about 5% of our current customers on the books will be forced to bust out as they originally qualified at a 3.25% rate and won't be able to stretch beyond this.”

#Sacramento builder: “Seeing trouble qualifying for entry-level buyers as they are priced out by rates.”

#SanJose builder: “Quality traffic has significantly decreased.” THE END

https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/homebuilder-comments-in-april-demand?s=r&source=patrick.net