patrick.net

DemoralizerOfPanicans says

$17990 home in 1955 in Syosset NY (Long Island) in today's dollars based on 5% annual appreciation is $547,371 :-/

AD says

$17990 home in 1955 in Syosset NY (Long Island) in today's dollars based on 5% annual appreciation is $547,371 :-/

Not do the salary at the same 5% annual appreciation.

2026 house appreciation will pick up slightly. No crash

https://rudy.substack.com/p/that-permanency-of-value

Melody Wright

“…the numbers that were being published for what was available for sale or permitted in no way matched what I was seeing on the road. We also had heard from an anonymous xTwitter account who claimed to be in new home sales that the builders were urging sales folks to get the initial contract signed even if they knew the borrowers would not qualify. In builder world, sales are tracked by that initial contract signing versus a closed sale. Shockingly as well, those at the Census who gather the information in the Survey of Construction don’t go back and revise those numbers for cancellations. The reason? Too hard to independently verify. Just as FRED relies on Realtor.com to provide listings for sale for its data series, the Census relies on industry insiders to tell them the state of things in the new home market…

Government has been intervening in housing for quite some time. We have reached the point where we have moved from the law of diminishing returns to one of no returns. This market has been subsidized to death. If indeed we are living in the strongest economy ever, why would we need a 50-year mortgage? As I asked on xTwitter are we now admitting we are in a silent depression?

In my hoods, the situation is complicated by insurance withdrawal. Some of the insurance companies were tipped off to the pending DEW fires in Palisades because they started withdrawing home insurance from Palisades homeowners months before the attack.

Around Santa Cruz, ever since the fires in the hills a few years ago, there has been a value ramp up in the more treeless flats, and a bit of drop in the tree bound areas in the hills. I don't think I would even ponder to purchase anything up there without an assurance of insurance availability.

Santa Cruz is one of the designated '15 minute city' candidates, which means if they can still activate the DEW Dresdens, it could get hit. Streets all over where I travel have been dug up and piping replaced, presumably from metal to plastic so that it can remain intact from the space weapons when they are deployed? WOO knows.

Patrick says

I'd instantly buy a tiny house if one were available around here for some reasonable amount of money.

Let me know if you need me to come by and help you take the wheels off.

Patrick says

1. the high cost of a house in a safe area prevents family formation, killing our future

2. truly lowering the cost of housing would alienate pretty much everyone who owns a house, and damage the banks

Best option is for household wages and income increase at a greater rate then housing costs.

Ideally housing prices drop 10% from recent all time high and then remain steady while income increases 3% a year for the next 7 years.

AD says

Best option is for household wages and income increase at a greater rate then housing costs.

deally housing prices drop 10% from recent all time high and then remain steady while income increases 3% a year for the next 7 years.

AD says

Best option is for household wages and income increase at a greater rate then housing costs.

Ideally housing prices drop 10% from recent all time high and then remain steady while income increases 3% a year for the next 7 years.

Why are you using 7 years as the "proper" amount of time?

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/more-than-half-of-us-homes-lost-value-in-the-past-year-171219733.html

More than half of US homes lost value in the past year

GNL says

Why are you using 7 years as the "proper" amount of time?

It's part of the 'magic'.

GNL says

Why are you using 7 years as the "proper" amount of time?

It's part of the 'magic'.

zzyzzx says

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/more-than-half-of-us-homes-lost-value-in-the-past-year-171219733.html

More than half of US homes lost value in the past year

BUT this Housing Expert of PatNet sez...

https://patrick.net/post/1383080/2025-01-03-housing-prices-will-not-go-down

MolotovCocktail says

The 15 year car loan...

Holy Shit! I just got a 4 year zero interest last August. Basically a free loan that I just have to pay back in 4 years.

Literally zero?

Patrick says

Literally zero?

Yes. From Ford for an F150 I bought.

New data from ATTOM shows 36,766 foreclosure filings in October, almost a 20% increase year-over-year, along with a 32% rise in completed foreclosures. Several states—Florida, South Carolina, and Illinois among them—reported some of their highest rates since the pandemic-era boom fizzled.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/foreclosures-soar-20-people-struggle-174612935.html

AD says

New data from ATTOM shows 36,766 foreclosure filings in October, almost a 20% increase year-over-year, along with a 32% rise in completed foreclosures. Several states—Florida, South Carolina, and Illinois among them—reported some of their highest rates since the pandemic-era boom fizzled.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/foreclosures-soar-20-people-struggle-174612935.html

So, how exactly do the foreclosures lead the price collapses? What is critical mass? When people perceive their mortgage investments are depreciating and wiping out their down payments, they see turning in the keys as a viable strategy on the losing proposition.

In California, people are buffered by their delusion of home equity wealth and being able to turn their appreciated homes into more loans for consumer glory bullshit.

Ceffer says

So, how exactly do the foreclosures lead the price collapses

Really?

We've been contemplating putting a bolus of fiat dollars into another place in Santa Cruz for a while, but not in an Appalachian weed strewn tiny sugar shack at a million plus. Foreclosure activity might help to bolster the base quality of investment per fiat dollar. It would be an asset hedge against the pending currency collapse. I'd rather do that than dive into the gold/silver or crypto dream states.

There is zero indication for a crash or collapse on the horizon. Sure the housing market sucked 2024, 2025 and will continue to do so, but 2026 will show low single digit appreciation IMO while 2025 was mostly flat to high single and some low double digit decline. Not going to outpace inflation, not a good "investment" but certainly no crash. Plus plenty of owners who locked in 3% mortgages, sitting tight.

mell says

There is zero indication for a crash or collapse on the horizon. Sure the housing market sucked 2024, 2025 and will continue to do so, but 2026 will show low single digit appreciation IMO while 2025 was mostly flat to high single and some low double digit decline. Not going to outpace inflation, not a good "investment" but certainly no crash. Plus plenty of owners who locked in 3% mortgages, sitting tight.

Florida panhandle housing market especially townhomes has sucked since the 30 yr mortgage rate reached near 7% in 2022. Two townhomes in a nearby HOA sold for around $265,000 recently and would have sold at an all-time high price of $320,000 in 2022.

mell says

There is zero indication for a crash or collapse on the horizon.

AD says

mell says

There is zero indication for a crash or collapse on the horizon. Sure the housing market sucked 2024, 2025 and will continue to do so, but 2026 will show low single digit appreciation IMO while 2025 was mostly flat to high single and some low double digit decline. Not going to outpace inflation, not a good "investment" but certainly no crash. Plus plenty of owners who locked in 3% mortgages, sitting tight.

Florida panhandle housing market especially townhomes has sucked since the 30 yr mortgage rate reached near 7% in 2022. Two townhomes in a nearby HOA sold for around $265,000 recently and would have sold at an all-time high price of $320,000 in 2022.

In northern CA covid created a new high/frenzy and prices appreciated into 2022 or 2023.

https://www.newsweek.com/price-correction-worse-2008-housing-market-analyst-11103703

Price Correction ‘Worse Than 2008’ Coming To US Housing Market

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/11/25/home-sellers-delisting-redfin.html

Real Estate Sellers are taking their homes off the market at the fastest pace in nearly a decade

Sellers are delisting because so many listings are going stale, sitting on the market longer and longer. Redfin reported that 70% of listings in September were on the market for 60 days or longer.

Homeowners are seeing prices weaken significantly and would rather wait than accept a low offer.

Freddie Mac House Price Index Up 1.0% Year-over-Year in October

Punta Gorda House Prices Down Over 20% from Recent Peak, Austin Down over 17%

26 States and D.C. have seen price declines Seasonally Adjusted

As of October, 26 states and D.C. were below their previous peaks, Seasonally Adjusted. The largest seasonally adjusted declines from the recent peaks are in D.C. (-3.2%), Florida (-3.0%) and Texas (-2.5%).

For cities (Core-based Statistical Areas, CBSA), 200 of the 387 CBSAs are below their previous peaks.

Here are the 30 cities with the largest declines from the peak, seasonally adjusted. Punta Gorda has passed Austin as the worst performing city. Note that 5 of the 7 cities with the largest price declines are in Florida.

Florida has the largest number of CBSAs on the list and Texas has the 2nd most.

https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/freddie-mac-house-price-index-up

https://www.wsj.com/real-estate/when-home-sellers-set-prices-too-high-theyre-paying-for-it-86fe1866

When Home Sellers Set Prices Too High, They’re Paying for It



Main Findings

Many U.S. homeowners are overpricing their properties, hoping to cash in on recent market gains.

When homes are listed above market value, they often sit unsold for months, forcing sellers to eventually cut prices.

Overpriced listings can turn off buyers, who may assume something is wrong with the property.

Financial Consequences

Sellers who start too high typically end up selling for less than if they had priced correctly from the start.

Price reductions signal desperation, weakening negotiating power.

Longer time on market increases carrying costs (mortgage, taxes, upkeep).

Market Context

Rising mortgage rates and affordability challenges mean buyers are more price‑sensitive than in past years.

Real estate agents stress the importance of accurate pricing strategies to avoid costly delays.

Takeaway

The article emphasizes that in today’s market, overpricing is a losing strategy: it delays sales, reduces final proceeds, and frustrates buyers.

zzyzzx says

https://www.newsweek.com/price-correction-worse-2008-housing-market-analyst-11103703

Price Correction ‘Worse Than 2008’ Coming To US Housing Market

News sell opposite of reality in my life experience. They all pump and dump for billionaires.

FortWayneHatesRealtors says

zzyzzx says

https://www.newsweek.com/price-correction-worse-2008-housing-market-analyst-11103703

Price Correction ‘Worse Than 2008’ Coming To US Housing Market

News sell opposite of reality in my life experience. They all pump and dump for billionaires.

There is zero indication of any crash, just an underperforming housing market. Nobody on here likes fake housing inflation and the realtor cabal, and if you look at the past 2 years it has performed fairly poorly. Doesn't mean it's staying that way or getting worse, in fact 2026 so far looks like low single digit appreciation for house prices. Don't trade the markets you want, trade the ones you have

zzyzzx says

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/11/25/home-sellers-delisting-redfin.html

Real Estate Sellers are taking their homes off the market at the fastest pace in nearly a decade

Sellers are delisting because so many listings are going stale, sitting on the market longer and longer. Redfin reported that 70% of listings in September were on the market for 60 days or longer.

Homeowners are seeing prices weaken significantly and would rather wait than accept a low offer.

mell says

There is zero indication of any crash, just an underperforming housing market

More denial. And not just here on PatNet!

Another sign that Peak House Pricing Bullshit has arrived:

Maga_Chaos_Monkey says

Patrick says

Literally zero?

Yes. From Ford for an F150 I bought.

Same dealership has a 5 year no interest loan available now too.

It was probably available when I bought but I didn't really care, I was willing to pay cash with bitcoin profits.

Normally I wouldn't tell that to a dealership but that place truly sells in volume. They picked me up in a shuttle from the hotel i stayed at after flying in.

No sense in paying it off all at once now, but if rental properties were cheaper I would have because too much debt makes the mortgage shittier.

Granger Ford in Des Moines, IA

zzyzzx says

, they often sit unsold for months, forcing sellers to eventually cut prices.

Overpriced listings can turn off buyers, who may assume something is wrong with the property.

When i sold my maui condo a year ago November it sold in under 10 days. During negotiations I dropped the price from 700K to 695K.

According to zillow/redfin the value has dropped about 55K since then.

It was valued about 150K more than I sold it a few months prior, until the commie mayor started flapping his lips about taking away our property rights, due to the Lahaina fire.

I guess I got out while the gitten was good on hindsight.

Maga_Chaos_Monkey says

zzyzzx says

, they often sit unsold for months, forcing sellers to eventually cut prices.

Overpriced listings can turn off buyers, who may assume something is wrong with the property.

When i sold my maui condo a year ago November it sold in under 10 days. During negotiations I dropped the price from 700K to 695K.

According to zillow/redfin the value has dropped about 55K since then.

It was valued about 150K more than I sold it a few months prior, until the commie mayor started flapping his lips about taking away our property rights, due to the Lahaina fire.

I guess I got out while the gitten was good on hindsight.

That was likely a very good sale, but even 55k are less than 10% reduction after many years of appreciation. There is no crash, just a correction to saner pricing amid higher interest rates

“When i sold my maui condo a year ago ”

Just curious - what were your HOA fees? I’ve seen $2,000/month in Kauai. That’s almost like renting your own condo unit.

mell says

That was likely a very good sale, but even 55k are less than 10% reduction after many years of appreciation. There is no crash, just a correction to saner pricing amid higher interest rates

I picked it up for 485K and it generated a lot of VRBO revenue until the end when the governor was scaring away tourists and taxes and risen quite a bit (passed on the guests but that's how you get less guests)

Al_Sharpton_for_President says

Just curious - what were your HOA fees? I’ve seen $2,000/month in Kauai. That’s almost like renting your own condo unit.

Started out high 700s/month and went up to high 800s/month. It was about 15 steps to the water and the salt air required lots and lots of maintenance that was expensive. It was a small one bedroom but a ground floor unobstructed view - West Maui has the best view anywhere in Hawaii.

Five years in we had a breach under our seawall and some sink holes. We were able to fix it well but were the last building in Maui allowed to do so. Now it's illegal to fix your seawall and all of the condos on the coast of West Maui are going into the ocean over the next 20-30 years. That's another reason I sold.

The plan is to grow Marijuana where the condos were, force the rental car companies off of the island, only allow high $ visitors to take shuttles to the hotels so they stay on hotel grounds.

Yes, the hotels are in bed with the govt there and always trying to make it harder for the small guy to compete. I won't even get into that but lets just say they are allowed to fix their seawalls lol...

It was a lot of fun while it lasted. I can work remotely so it was a quickish trip to get there from San Diego, work for a week or two then go home.

Our wall was set back 20ft or so vs. the neighbors on both sides so often we had a little private beach, one of the few in West Maui. Depending on the tides the sand would rise and fall about 20ft as well.

Most of West Maui is rocky.

Ours and buildings in the area were built for short term vacation rentals back in the early 70s. There is not much storage. You can't live in them long term really. Definitely no room for families unless you consider the penthouse top level floors (3-4th floors).

Generated a LOT of revenue. That seawall assessment was 25K and was super easy to float. I was raising prices every year after I got my review count up (and kept at 5-stars) so I really didn't even notice that loss year over year.

VRBO is nothing like Air BNB. You don't get the riff raff for the most part. About 1-2% of guests were shitty. Mostly happy people super excited to be in Hawaii.

One thing about that Lahaina fire: It became super hard to get labor to fix things from San Diego. Not because they jacked up rates, they didn't, it's just that almost all of those people left.

Maga_Chaos_Monkey says

zzyzzx says

, they often sit unsold for months, forcing sellers to eventually cut prices.

Overpriced listings can turn off buyers, who may assume something is wrong with the property.

When i sold my maui condo a year ago November it sold in under 10 days. During negotiations I dropped the price from 700K to 695K.

According to zillow/redfin the value has dropped about 55K since then.

It was valued about 150K more than I sold it a few months prior, until the commie mayor started flapping his lips about taking away our property rights, due to the Lahaina fire.

I guess I got out while the gitten was good on hindsight.

It was valued at $850k when you sold at $695k?

Glock-n-Load says

It was valued at $850k when you sold at $695k?

It was, a few months before I sold, but by the time I sold it was closer to 700K. People who were holding out for higher prices were languishing on the market and continued after I sold.

That's what I originally responded to: House owners that still think they'll get covid market peak on their houses.

That area has continued to drop as well to this day. I sold 13 months ago, this claims prices will go up but they always say that:



As I mentioned above, mine has dropped about 55K over the past 13 months, since I sold it.