patrick.net

SunnyvaleCA says

Eman says

I did the math of Tesla solar panels. Cost is $17.4K after tax incentives. It would cover my monthly electricity bill of $230/mo on average. Add in a powerwall will increase the cost by $8k. Without the powerwall, it’s about 15% ROI. What am I missing?

Have you pursued this further?

Here in California you get very low value for selling electrons back to the utility company. (This changed in the last few years to be very low.) So, you need the batteries because you want to keep your own electricity and use it at night. How long do the batteries last? Who knows, but to be effective at saving money they need to be charged and discharged daily, which will probably tend to wear them out.

Current BESS technology is only good for 8-10 years, then you will have to replace. Should be calculating in the cost of 1.5 to 2 capital renewals of the BESS over a 25-30 year PV/Inverter system lifecycle.

The National Renewable Energy Laboratory warns that by the end of their lifetime, 80 million tons of solar panel waste could end up in landfills globally. Today’s conditions do not encourage PV recycling. 500 gigawatts of PV are assumed to be installed in the U.S. by 2050 (compared to 104 gigawatts in 2020), generating 9.1 million metric tons of PV waste. Average recycling cost is $28 per module, repair is $65 per module, and landfill is $1.38 per module, where used modules are sold at 36% of new module prices.

From 2020 to 2050, approximately 80% of modules are landfilled, 1% are reused, and 10% are recycled. With today’s material recovery rate, the recycled mass totals just 0.7 million metric tons through 2050, or approximately 8%.

With today’s technology, PV modules are difficult to separate, and the process recovers mostly low-value materials. Because of this, there currently isn’t enough revenue from recycling to offset the high costs, and therefore very little mass is recycled. This will lead to a major waste problem by 2050.



https://x.com/JohnLeePettim13/status/1989463681546293661?s=20

A contractor dude I know who does roofing among other things once told me: "keep these solar monkeys off your roof - it's not worth the trouble they cause".

Same goes for "we'll clean your gutters for $200" monkeys if access to any of these gutters requires them jumping on the tile roof - they'll crack the shit out of it.

RWSGFY says

Same goes for "we'll clean your gutters for $200" monkeys if access to any of these gutters requires them jumping on the tile roof - they'll crack the shit out of it.

I would never buy a house with a tile roof.

zzyzzx says

RWSGFY says

Same goes for "we'll clean your gutters for $200" monkeys if access to any of these gutters requires them jumping on the tile roof - they'll crack the shit out of it.

I would never buy a house with a tile roof.

Why not? They look good and last a very long time if nobody is jumping on them.

zzyzzx says

I would never buy a house with a tile roof.

Yes, thatched roof is the only way to go.

Eric Holder says

Why not? They look good and last a very long time if nobody is jumping on them.

We have clay tile on our house and love it. I had a contractor do a "lift and relay" a few years after we bought the house putting new paper down and reusing most of the existing tile. The tile will last over 100 years!

That said, you can't walk on it. My contractor buddy says you should only let a 100 pound Mexican in socks do any roof work!

socal2 says

The tile will last over 100 years!

In CA maybe. IL they're toast in 30 years if that. Hail storms. Every house here will get smashed by golf ball or bigger sized hail 1-3 times in your lifetime. It destroys clay tile.

Not saying they're bad roofs, just they only work in specific areas.

WookieMan says

In CA maybe. IL they're toast in 30 years if that. Hail storms. Every house here will get smashed by golf ball or bigger sized hail 1-3 times in your lifetime. It destroys clay tile.

And people say weather doesn't matter, LOL.

WookieMan says

Every house here will get smashed by golf ball or bigger sized hail 1-3 times in your lifetime. It destroys clay tile.

That happens in Germany tool. Just before I did my foreign study year in Innsbruck, there was a crazy hailstorm so you'd see all these damaged cars driving around.

The most notable hailstorm in Germany during the 1980s was the Munich hailstorm on July 12, 1984, which caused extensive damage with tennis ball-sized hailstones.

This event resulted in an estimated cost of 3 billion Deutschmark, making it the most significant loss event in the history of the German insurance industry at that time.

The storm damaged approximately 70,000 homes and 200,000 cars, and it is often remembered for the term "Munich Design," which jokingly referred to cars whose bodywork was not repaired after the storm.

Silver accounts for roughly 5–10% of the total cost of a solar panel system, depending on silver prices and panel design.

📊 Silver’s Role in Solar Costs
• Material Use: Each solar panel contains about 20 grams (0.64 ounces) of silver, embedded in the conductive paste that carries electricity through the silicon cells.
• Industry Demand: In 2023, solar PV consumed 193.5 million ounces of silver, projected to rise to 232 million ounces in 2024.
• Cost Share:
• At ~$25/oz silver, the silver in one panel costs about $16.
• With installed panel costs averaging $150–$300 per panel, silver represents 5–10% of the hardware cost.
• For a full residential system (~20 panels, $15,000–$20,000 installed), silver contributes $300–$600 of the total.

🧠 Why Silver Matters
• Efficiency: Silver is the best conductor, boosting panel efficiency compared to alternatives like copper.
• Price Sensitivity: Rising silver prices (up ~100% since 2019) put pressure on manufacturers to reduce silver content or switch to copper metallization.
• Scaling Impact: As global solar capacity expands, silver demand is becoming a bottleneck—solar now accounts for ~15% of annual silver consumption.

⚠️ Implications
• Cost Volatility: If silver prices spike, solar system costs rise disproportionately, since silver is irreplaceable in high‑efficiency designs.
• Innovation Pressure: Manufacturers are researching copper and aluminum alternatives to reduce reliance on silver.
• Macro Link: Silver’s dual role as an industrial and precious metal means solar demand directly influences global silver markets.

✅ In summary: Silver makes up about 5–10% of the cost of a solar system, with each panel using ~20 grams of silver. Rising silver prices are a growing challenge for solar economics.
Sources: International Precious Metals Institute, Resource World, MiningVisuals

$$$ seems like silver will be one of the most major cost components of solar panels $$$

Forgot one more implication:

If silver prices skyrocket, panels on top of homes will suddenly go missing like catalytic converters on cars parked outside currently do.

AD says

Innovation Pressure: Manufacturers are researching copper and aluminum alternatives to reduce reliance on silver

But...but..I was told by 'experts' that commercial graphene/buckeypaper to deal with this was just around the corner!

I don't remember solar roadways.

Seems like it could be a good idea if technically possible.

Patrick says

I don't remember solar roadways.

Seems like it could be a good idea if technically possible.

Progress is when technically possible meets profitability.
In new green deal progress is if: Pay for your guilt right now, you M*** F***.

REpro says

Patrick says

I don't remember solar roadways.

Seems like it could be a good idea if technically possible.

Progress is when technically possible meets profitability.
In new green deal progress is if: Pay for your guilt right now, you M*** F***.

Skid resistance with tires and the road. It's a non-starter from a governmental level and also the solar aspect. I'm in the know. Engineers have alway laughed at this idea.

Traction aside, put a plow or salt on it? A semi at 80k lbs or an even heavier load and it's destroyed. It could only be done on pedestrian walkways and that would maybe get you 1k homes powered in the southwest. It was a 15 year high schooler idea that was just that, was never realistic.

https://solarroadways.com/

https://youtu.be/qlTA3rnpgzU?si=G1HGlyUIkqYtkJlR

MolotovCocktail says

https://solarroadways.com/

https://youtu.be/qlTA3rnpgzU?si=G1HGlyUIkqYtkJlR

Yes there are retarded nut bags that think it is a good idea. Plenty of people have presented x,y and z inventions but it doesn't happen. It's a marketing scheme to make money and provide nothing. They made a 10'x10' pad for $10k and got a couple million out of it.

Solar has to be angled to provide the most bang for the buck. Throw in the elements and weight of vehicles it's a non-starter. And then government restrictions on skid resistance. Like I said, a high schooler science project idea. Not happening in 99.9% of the cases with ideas like this.

An area about the size of Georgia has been paved in the US. Seems like an awful lot of wasted energy to just heat the blacktop.

Maybe it could all be covered with roofs which tilt to face the sun and drop snow. Or maybe it's just pointless in cold climates.

Grok tells me that setting up only 1/5 of that area in the Mojave would suffice for all US electricity needs, if you could deliver it.