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Offer Asylum to Russian Soldiers Who Surrender


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2022 Mar 25, 11:37am   438 views  14 comments

by Eric Holder   ➕follow (5)   💰tip   ignore  

Economist Timur Kuran has an excellent idea for how the US and its European allies can help Ukraine resist Russia at little cost to ourselves:

Don't assume Russian soldiers and officers like what they are doing. Some—we can't know many, because preference falsification is inherently invisible—must be willing to break ranks, if only they have options. Let EU and NATO countries offer asylum to Russian military defectors.


Kuran, author of Private Truths, Public Lies: The Social Consequences of Preference Falsification, is the world's leading expert on "preference falsification" - the effects of situations where people have incentives to misrepresent their true beliefs. And there is good reason to believe that many Russian soldiers indeed would prefer not to be fighting Ukrainians. Political scientist Jason Lyall, an expert on defense issues, has a helpful summary:

Russia's invasion of Ukraine has stumbled out of the starting gate. Gambling on rapid marches to force a quick surrender in Kyiv, the Russian army appears shocked by Ukrainian resistance. While still grinding forward, Russian operations have been plagued by poor coordination, snarled logistics lines and a curious reluctance to deploy all elements of Russian military power, including air power…..

Why has Russia struggled? While analysts have mostly focused on hardware and doctrine, many of Russia's problems can be traced to a single source: low morale….

Evidence is mounting that many Russian soldiers are reluctant to fight.

Social media is littered with videos of lost and hungry soldiers looting, begging for food or ditching their tanks and trucks. Captured soldiers have expressed confusion about the war's purpose and have surrendered once they discovered they were not on a training exercise. Hundreds of armored vehicles have been abandoned or captured by Ukrainian forces and, in at least one case, by a local farmer.

Many of Russian equipment losses have been because of abandonment and capture, not destruction. Indeed, dozens of videos of lines of stranded military equipment can be found on TikTok. Russian military authorities have threatened physical abuse or worse to enforce discipline in some units.


The rest of Lyall's article details the causes of many Russian troops' low motivation, and describes ways in which morale problems impede the Russian military's effectiveness.

A shift in incentives from a situation where surrender is likely to mean eventual repatriation to Russia (where they may face disgrace and possible punishment) to one where it means a life of vastly greater freedom and prosperity in the West could significantly increase the number of Russian soldiers who decide to give up. Fear that their subordinates are angling for an opportunity to defect might also sow doubt and distrust in the minds of Russian commanders, thus further undermining morale and effectiveness.

The US and other NATO allies should take up Kuran's idea. And they should publicize the offer of asylum as much as possible, using social media, leaflets dispersed by Ukrainian forces, and any other possible methods of communication. Every Russian soldier should be made aware that surrender means a better life for them in the West.

Yes, there is always the risk that a Russian who surrenders and clams asylum might turn out to be some sort of spy or saboteur planted by the Kremlin. But people given access to classified information or jobs requiring security clearances, must undergo extensive screening, whether they are immigrants or not. And if Vladimir Putin wants to insinuate spies or saboteurs into the US whose job it is to find openly available information or target facilities open to the public, realistically he has many other ways of doing so.

....


https://reason.com/volokh/2022/03/01/offer-asylum-to-russian-soldiers-who-surrender/?source=patrick.net

Comments 1 - 14 of 14        Search these comments

1   rocketjoe79   2022 Mar 25, 11:38am  

Too many families back in Russia that would be held hostage.
Russians have a mafia, and the government follows suit:
"Sure, go ahead and defect! God forbid something should happen to your family while you were gone. Or course, we would care for them in our luxurious Siberian camps for true patriots! gulags are pretty cold"
2   Eric Holder   2022 Mar 25, 11:39am  

rocketjoe79 says
Too many families back in Russia that would be held hostage.


How would FSB know? A soldier will be considered MIA if no information of his surrender is made public.
4   Eric Holder   2022 Mar 25, 11:57am  

Historian Paul Matzko, another supporter, notes the successful historical precedent of American efforts to incentivize defections by Hessian German troops hired by the British during the Revolutionary War

For all the Hessians who died on American battlefields, nearly as many remained behind under kinder circumstances. Many Hessians who arrived in this lush, free land quickly realized they were fighting for the wrong side. Approximately 3,000 Hessians deserted during the course of the war, fully a tenth of the entire force.

That was in part the result of a policy choice, one of the earliest actions of the new Continental Congress. In August 1776, Congress commissioned agents of German ancestry to go and pass out handbills near Hessian encampments on Staten Island, offering them clemency if they deserted. More than a few absconded to the already established German immigrant settlements in Pennsylvania and the mid-Atlantic states. That led to growing frustration among the German princes in the old country as they struggled to find capable replacements in order to avoid defaulting on their mercenary contracts. It was a brilliant strategic decision. Whether dead on the battlefield in White Plains, New York, or alive and farming a field in Lancaster, Pennsylvania, it meant one fewer Hessian soldier in the fight for American independence.

5   clambo   2022 Mar 25, 3:39pm  

Ukraine has done this.
They sent text messages to Russians offering $10,000 for defecting with a tank and possible Ukraine citizenship.
Clever those Ukrainian guys
6   Patrick   2022 Mar 25, 5:52pm  

It would be much cheaper to simply shoot them and keep the tank, and the Russian soldiers no doubt realize this.
7   AmericanKulak   2022 Mar 25, 5:55pm  

clambo says
Ukraine has done this.
They sent text messages to Russians offering $10,000 for defecting with a tank and possible Ukraine citizenship.
Clever those Ukrainian guys


Let me guess where the $10k is coming from. It sure as shit isn't coming from the tax revenues of the Gabon of Europe.
8   richwicks   2022 Mar 25, 6:18pm  

Patrick says
It would be much cheaper to simply shoot them and keep the tank, and the Russian soldiers no doubt realize this.


That's a good point.

"We're offering $10,000 for every Russian that brings in a tank!"

Russian comes in with tank.

*bang*

"We're offering $10,000 for every Russian that brings in a tank".

What would be the reason to pay them off?

AmericanKulak says
Let me guess where the $10k is coming from. It sure as shit isn't coming from the tax revenues of the Gabon of Europe.


Probably the story is false.
9   clambo   2022 Mar 25, 6:23pm  

Actually evidently the Russians surrendered something better than a tank, an electronic jamming device worth tens of millions and presently irreplaceable by Russia because it contains electronic components no longer available to them.
10   Eric Holder   2022 Mar 25, 6:44pm  

richwicks says

Probably the story is false.


False in what way? In "such thing never announced"? Or "nobody ever collected"?
11   Eric Holder   2022 Mar 25, 6:45pm  

AmericanKulak says
clambo says
Ukraine has done this.
They sent text messages to Russians offering $10,000 for defecting with a tank and possible Ukraine citizenship.
Clever those Ukrainian guys


Let me guess where the $10k is coming from. It sure as shit isn't coming from the tax revenues of the Gabon of Europe.


Donations, LOL. Wanna contribute?
12   richwicks   2022 Mar 25, 7:24pm  

Eric Holder says
richwicks says

Probably the story is false.


False in what way? In "such thing never announced"? Or "nobody ever collected"?


I mean that there's probably no such offer.

Let's say I controlled a Russian tank, I wouldn't trust the other side of hold up the other end of the bargain, PLUS, I would be well aware of propaganda of the other side, and fully propagandized by my side. Nobody enters the military thinking "my government is a lying piece of shit!"

I'm seeing so much bullshit and propaganda coming in right now, it's just very interesting. The whole purpose of the internet was to demolish the propaganda, and I think that is slowly happening. If this was the Iraq War in 2003, nearly everybody here would be pro-war. There's a reasonable balance now. It's slower progress than I had hoped for 30 years ago, but it's progress.

One thing I've learned is that IF you are right, and you've been called traitor, coward, whatever - there's never an apology. There's no reward for being right, ever and there's no shame for people being wrong, as long as they parrot the propaganda. If it turns out that Ukraine is really run by a bunch of supremacists of some sort, blatant racists, they're never be any sort of shame from the people that fiercely defended them.

There's no good sides in a war. All war is, is legalized murder. All governments are criminal syndicates. Doesn't matter who wins, but if Russia loses, they are a nuclear super power, and they are quite clear that if a foreign adversary steps on their soil, they will go to the nuclear option. Might be a bluff, maybe not.
13   Booger   2022 Mar 26, 3:31am  

richwicks says
Nobody enters the military thinking "my government is a lying piece of shit!"


Conscripts do.
14   richwicks   2022 Mar 26, 4:44am  

Booger says
richwicks says
Nobody enters the military thinking "my government is a lying piece of shit!"


Conscripts do.


Conscripts are slaves. It's a duty of them to have no loyalty to their government.

It's said that men between 18 and 65 can't leave Ukraine, what are they? Conscripts, slaves.

A government that the people don't support should fall.

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