patrick.net

My guess is Putin knows that the west has no leadership and he has almost all the cards (has Europe dependent on Russian energy, knows Bidet is impotent to stop him as proven in Afghanistan, and knows China loves the drama because they want to do the same in their own assumed territories). Plus America has all but abandoned Israel and now Iran, Turkey and Russia all have troops Syria and that makes their coalition a pretty big influence in the Middle East.

PeopleUnited says

My guess is Putin knows that the west has no leadership and he has almost all the cards (has Europe dependent on Russian energy, knows Bidet is impotent to stop him as proven in Afghanistan, and knows China loves the drama because they want to do the same in their own assumed territories). Plus America has all but abandoned Israel and now Iran, Turkey and Russia all have troops Syria and that makes their coalition a pretty big influence in the Middle East.

Very logical

Russia and turkey though have been in a low-key war for a few yrs in Syria and Libya, then Armenia, and now they will be in Ukraine (Turkey provided Ukrainians with their attack drones which are pretty good as they burned a lot of Russian military hardware in Libya, incl nearly all of their anti-aircraft systems).

As if things couldn't be more fucked up with Biden.
An observant world leader sees he's addled and weak, not a leader in any sense of the word.
This invites mischief.
I hope things settle down by summer and by November the bums get thrown out.

I think Putin is going to formally make Donetsk et al independent states from Ukraine using his army. He would be out of his mind to invade Kiev. The west wont risk WW3 over these small regions.

Another Biden Regime failure.

Or, an Obama Promise fulfilled.

You decide. We won't know for years, in all likelihood.

Bd6r says

the demise of so-called Western Civilization since meritocracy etc is irrelevant, so the ruling class is more incompetent than ever before

This fits with Ibn Khaldun's scheme for how history works:

- a small united group with strong principles takes over the government from the corrupt old elite
- the country does well under good leadership
- the descendants of that small united group grow corrupt and become just like the old elite
- cycle repeats

Seems like an interesting work around. Claim has been made that Ukraine never defined its borders from 1991. As such, redistricting two new countries who are happy to place themselves under Russia could be 'by the book' in that regard. Russia would be maintaining stability, defense and peace at the request of the two new countries. No invasion per se on technicalities.

Biden idiot et alia have already threatened to sanction the 'two new countries'. They don't want their criminal enterprises in Ukraine removed.

Next up, Xi heads for Taipei.
We look woke and weak to all our 'adversaries'.

stereotomy says

All's I know is it's good for gold.

Russia is simply following NATO's playbook on how to dismantle a country: Yugoslavia in the early 1990's.

You have it backwards: NATO has ended the shitshow in Yugoslavia, not started it. It was Russia who supported and egged on Milo to choose the civil war instead of peaceful dissolution. BTW, the same FSB fuck who started the shit in Donbass - Igor Girkin - was stirring shit in Yugoslavia in the 90s. Not my fantasies - his own videotaped admission.

No, the Yugoslav Civil War started when the Croats threw every Serbian in the Krajina into a new Jasenovak. When Serbs saw that, they flipped. The UN and EU told Bulgaria, Romania, and Hungary not to sell to Serbia, while the UN/EU ignored Austrians, Germans, and Italians giving abundant weaponry to the Croats and the Arabs brazenly sent Jihadis and weapons to Bosnia.

It's no accident the Croats suddenly had HKs all of a sudden shortly after the war began, in numbers to replace their Yugo AKs.

And got instantly invited into the EU, while Serbia is told their judiciary isn't independent (Globalist) enough, despite Croatian atrocities, for which each Croat is almost never found, and if they are, they're always hiding in Spain and there's never enough evidence.

Kind of like NI. Demands for UK soldiers to be prosecuted on flimsy evidence from 1970, but no demands for IRA members to show the bodies they buried in the bogs. UK officers put on trial from 50 years ago for putting some Terrorist in his undies in the corner, no trials for extrajudicial murders and tortures of alleged "Touts" by the IRA.

The EU is the 4th Reich.

AmericanKulak says

No, the Yugoslav Civil War started when the Croats threw every Serbian in the Krajina into a new Jasenovak. When Serbs saw that, they flipped. The UN and EU told Bulgaria, Romania, and Hungary not to sell to Serbia, while the UN/EU ignored Austrians, Germans, and Italians giving abundant weaponry to the Croats and the Arabs brazenly sent Jihadis and weapons to Bosnia.

It's no accident the Croats suddenly had HKs all of a sudden shortly after the war began, in numbers to replace their Yugo AKs.

And got instantly invited into the EU, while Serbia is told their judiciary isn't independent (Globalist) enough, despite Croatian atrocities, for which each Croat is almost never found, and if they are, they're always hiding in Spain and there's never enough evidence.

Kind of like NI. Demands for UK soldiers to be prosecuted on flimsy evidence from 1970, but no demands for IRA members to show the bodies they buried in the bogs.

Also since it was mentioned that Germany and the US pressured for the war in Yugoslavia in another thread: I found it highly suspicious that even members of the green party - which has been as anti-war as one can get - in Germany called for airstrikes and boots on the ground to "stop the ethnic cleansing". I don't think Germany acted independently here, I do believe they were either coerced or bribed to push for it. Since then the greens have transformed into a part of the uniparty (left side similar to dems here) and the only 2 parties consistently speaking out against useless and devastating wars are the far-left ex-sed/communist (die linke) party and the only right-wing/populist adf (anti immigration, anti mandates etc.) party. Kinda funny how this works, the parties on the "extremes" by lamestream media definition (and thus their enemies) these days have more in common than the corrupt uniparty assholes of green/spd/cdu (fdp still has a few principled tru old school liberals at least). I don't think this was a coincidence, the same globalist leftoid globohomo forces that have coopted many governments started a concerted action to bring Western countries onto their "course". No we're seeing the reverberations, resistance and clashes as the result of this crap infiltration.

I'll never forget in HS, when a Bulgarian Exchange Student rolled her eyes at me and said "You believe the Media?!"

At the time I brought the bullshit narrative about Ebil Serbs and Good Croats and Poor Bosnians.

AmericanKulak says

I'll never forget in HS, when a Bulgarian Exchange Student rolled her eyes at me and said "You believe the Media?!"

At the time I brought the bullshit narrative about Ebil Serbs and Good Croats and Poor Bosnians.

I have to say I believed it too and to this day it's hard to make up your mind. I mean Karadzic and Milosevic supposedly committed documented atrocities, but I have no idea how much this was blown up and to what extent there was ethnic cleansing going on besides fighting rebel fighters. My Serbian friends definitely mostly had the same stance, they kept insisting the media was lying, pretty much all of them. Maybe the truth is somewhere in the middle, but Serbs were definitely vilified back then unless they renounced their "affiliation". And we all know The Hague only prosecutes selectively and isn't worth much if anything at all.

Patrick says

Pretty much exactly my thoughts. This corrupt government has oppressed its own people to a ridiculous degree, and then it wants us to be excited about a war with Russia who hasn’t done us a lick of harm in living memory? Who the fuck cares about the Ukraine? It was still part of Russia when I was a kid, and I don’t care if pieces of it become some part of Russia again. I’m not interested in giving blood and treasure to prevent another country from gaining a minor advantage over the EU. Bunch of corrupt oligarchs there anyway. Russia can keep the EU in check.

We're supposed to fight Russia so that Hunter and other politicians' children can keep their no-show fat cat corrupto-buck 'jobs' in Ukraine.

Remember when we used to be beguiled into the notion that our representatives were profound world intellects, playing 5D chess on an abstract plane, fighting the forces of evil and charging forward with the forces of good, in dimensions we could only imagine? Now, we find out they are just common thieves, sociopaths, dynastic psychopaths and cultists.

mell says

I have to say I believed it too and to this day it's hard to make up your mind. I mean Karadzic and Milosevic supposedly committed documented atrocities

Everybody does in war.



If that was from Russia, and that was a Ukrainian terrorist detainee, it would be on television every day for the next 3 months.

What do you think Shock and Awe was? That was the definition of terrorism. Cause shock and make the population capitulate through fear. That was an explicit policy.

There's no good sides in war, ever. The closest you get is when one nation is defending itself from an invader. The United States defended itself, maybe once, in WWII. Maybe. Hawaii wasn't a state then, but that's as close as it gets.

mell says

And we all know The Hague only prosecutes selectively and isn't worth much if anything at all.

Yep, The Hague only prosecutes people the EU doesn't like. The liked the IRA for giving UK a hard time, they supported the Croatians. So those two never faced the Hague.

Hans Blix was all butthurt over Serbia and had a huge rant about Orthodox Christians being barbarians, it's in one of the State Department Wikileaks. So much for "Neutral, unbiased Sweden"

AmericanKulak says

they supported the Croatians. So those two never faced the Hague.

U sure 'bout that? I remember at least two Croat generals were tried and convicted for war crimes.

Eric Holder says

U sure 'bout that? I remember at least two Croat generals were tried and convicted for war crimes.

Overturned

https://www.csmonitor.com/World/Latest-News-Wires/2012/1116/Croatian-generals-war-crime-convictions-overturned?source=patrick.net

Whereas Serbians almost always got the Max.

What's the endgame? I don't see him stopping with Ukraine. If Putin is trying to restore Russias "traditional" borders then does he invade the Balkans next? Would NATO really view "an attack on one as an attack on all?" Would Eastern Europe suddenly find themselves in an all out conflict? Does the US step up and lead or does Biden try sanctions and diplomacy, which does little to nothing?

Meanwhile does China get aggressive with Taiwan?

Does Iran rattle a few Sabres?

Does North Korea test more nukes?

Our weaknesses (perceived or actual) has emboldened our adversaries.

GreaterNYCDude says

What's the endgame? I don't see him stopping with Ukraine. If Putin is trying to restore Russias "traditional" borders then does he invade the Balkans next? Would NATO really view "an attack on one as an attack on all?" Would Eastern Europe suddenly find themselves in an all out conflict? Does the US step up and lead or does Biden try sanctions and diplomacy, which does little to nothing?

Meanwhile does China get aggressive with Taiwan?

Does Iran rattle a few Sabres?

Does North Korea test more nukes?

Our weaknesses (perceived or actual) has emboldened our adversaries.

What does “step up and lead” mean?

Are you suggesting USA go to war with Russia over Ukraine?

The endgame is, for the next 3 months:

GreaterNYCDude says

I don't see him stopping with Ukraine

Russia dismantles Ukrainian Government. He might be a prick and call it the "Russia Maidan".

If he's the Bismarckish type i think he is, he ends the conflict with no kept territory West of the Dneipr and is happy with a disarmed, pro-Russia Ukraine. He doesn't want an insurgency which he risks, certainly by occupying the Western Half of the Country.

Biden said he'd announce his SCOTUS nominee today. The Regime has moved on.

US and European politicians have nothing to gain by continuing to talk about Ukraine, as their bluff was called and they look like impotent schmucks on the issue, which they are.

Nobody is putting Paris or Chicago at nuke risk over Donetsk. Just like they won't over Vilnius or Riga, but that's a truth most don't want to hear yet, Article 5 be damned. They will over Poland, since Poland borders Germany and the Germans would finally get off their ass for that.

Biden and the Press acts like Sanctions are working and it's time to move on to the "Existential Threat" of Climate Change.

Sanctions don't work because they are weak AND China can loan/sell Russia anything they need as it's the world's #1 manufacturer, thanks to Neoliberal Outsourcing.

Inflation and scarcity continues.

China may or may not invade Taiwan, depending on how much of a stink is made over Ukraine and if it can keep Western Attention for a time.
GreaterNYCDude says

Does Iran rattle a few Sabres?

Iran's Atomic Deal with the IAEA is being negotiated right now. Guess which country provided the lead negotiator? Starts with an "R".

Advocacy for the Normalization of Pedophilia slowly perculates back into Academia, Media, and Culture generally.

It's tragic seeing the Ukrainian President go trench to trench, and complain he calls everybody for help, but all he gets is pillows and blankets

Just as predicted. The Tragedy of Great Power Politics by Mearsheimer is the Book to read.

PUTLER GHENGHIS KHAN WORLD CONQUERER!

LISTS HIS UNREASONABLE DEMANDS FOR UKRAINE AND ALL EASTERN EUROPE!

TRILLIONS IN GOLD! ALL OF UKRAINE! HALF OF POLAND! FRANCE AND GERMANY TO BOW 7 TIMES 7 BEFORE THE GREAT RUSSIAN PRESIDENT! A THOUSAND DUTCH REDLIGHT HOOKERS TO SERVICE PUTIN'S MAJESTY IN HIS PERSONAL HAREM!

NOW HEED THESE COMMANDS AND TREMBLINGLY OBEY!

Nope, he's a Bismarckian as I predicted:




"Just keep Ukraine free of McCain Neolibcon Types and a no-NATO neutral buffer zone. I don't want anything else but what I already took in Crimea which is 80% Russian and was never historically Ukrainian except for a few decades under the USSR"

If I'm Ukraine, I'm acquiring nukes and joining NATO at my earliest convenience.

If I'm America, I'm getting OUT of NATO before I get nuked over a fight that started over who invented Vodka, or if Bialyvostinvok is Polish Kurwa or Russian Blyat.

Bd6r says

I hope not. But perhaps whatever happens will accelerate the demise of so-called Western Civilization since meritocracy etc is irrelevant, so the ruling class is more incompetent than ever before.

It is also very telling that none of that would have happened if trump was President, as there was relative peace in those parts of world in 2016-2020.

Once again, Trump maintained peace cause he was a loose cannon and unpredictable. No one wants to pick a fight with a crazy vengeful person with 1 finger on Nukes. He made similar statements as Putin with his threats to North Korea. Lil Kim backed down.

Trump and Putin are more alike than different.

AmericanKulak says

It's tragic seeing the Ukrainian President go trench to trench, and complain he calls everybody for help, but all he gets is pillows and blankets

Just as predicted. The Tragedy of Great Power Politics by Mearsheimer is the Book to read.

Sucks but the reality is Putin is nearly 70… and if you attack him he’s vengeful and might just say “I lived a decent life” and fire all the nukes.

What’s keeping a person from doing so?

BoomAndBustCycle says

AmericanKulak says

It's tragic seeing the Ukrainian President go trench to trench, and complain he calls everybody for help, but all he gets is pillows and blankets

Just as predicted. The Tragedy of Great Power Politics by Mearsheimer is the Book to read.

Sucks but the reality is Putin is nearly 70… and if you attack him he’s vengeful and might just say “I lived a decent life” and fire all the nukes.

What’s keeping a person from doing so?

Technically nothing but it's propaganda-fed thinking. Everybody is acting like he's the new hitler while this has been coming for a while and certainly not out of the blue, he has been saying for many years that he is concerned with a nato build-up in the ukraine, a country which formerly belonged to russia and which has quite a few russians. Each briefing, security meeting, summit he reiterated this concern and not a single time were talks scheduled to address it, nobody bothered to respond, esp. after the ukrainian govt overthrow. This could have all been avoided but it was ignored on purpose. He may be a thug but there are plenty of thugs leading countries these days, look no further than most western nations. trudeau basically fought a war against his own people, same for Australia and NZ and for a large part the US. Far more people have died from the coerced jab than from the Ukrainian war. There's almost always a way out, stop the mandates, come to the table in the ukraine and prevent more unnecessary bloodshed, etc. etc. instead no crisis is gone to waste but used to divide people further. You want madmen, fucked up crazy dictators and evil men? Look no further than fraudci, bourla, collins etc. etc. start here

BayArea says

What does “step up and lead” mean?

Are you suggesting USA go to war with Russia over Ukraine?

I'd prefer to avoid it, but you need to fight strenght with strenght. We need to at least leave that possibility open.

Call for a broad coallition. Just as Bush the elder did when Sadam invaded Kuwait. Situation is in many ways similar. Strong country invades weaker one to access its resources. Figures the world won't care enough to fight him. He may well be right.

Put NATO troops in the Balkans and Poland and Finland as a deterrent. Send some arms to Ukraine to support thier defense. Have the CIA send recon drones to assess troop movements.

Also we need sanctions with teeth. Stop importing their oil. Kick them off the SWIFT system.

Now some of this either has been done or may well will be done, but the roll out has been, like most things of late, convoluted. We dont project strength. We need a Regan or a Kennedy.

Unless we don't want to be the world police. In which case pull our troops out of Germany, Italy, etc. Dissolve NATO and let the EU fend for themselves...

I don't see any good way out of this.

GreaterNYCDude says

What's the endgame?

Prevent NATO and EU weaponry from being placed in Ukraine.

GreaterNYCDude says

I don't see him stopping with Ukraine.

I do. Russia did the same thing with S. Ossetia and Georgia. Once they achieved their mission objectives, they left.

GreaterNYCDude says

If Putin is trying to restore Russias "traditional" borders then does he invade the Balkans next?

No. Russia has 11 time zones, there's enough trouble keeping that together.

If Russia continues to push further, which I doubt, they are in the wrong, and we're actually looking at WWIII and Putin is just another Boomer nutcase happy to destroy the world because what the fuck - he's going to be dead one way or another in 20 years regardless.

It’s all about the pipeline. The Nordstream 1 delivers 40% of European energy needs, and has driven massive gains in Russian prosperity. They then built a second pipeline Nordstream 2, which was finished last fall and been undergoing inspections in preparation for being turned on. This would put Europe in the position of getting 80% energy provided by contracts to Russia. Great for free market and cheaper energy. Bad for world police USA cabal.
Biden allows it but puts a “poison pill” in the treaty. If Russia steps one foot over the Ukraine border, the pipeline is cancelled.
Putin announces the breakaway independent regions and sends in “peacekeeping forces.”
Biden invokes the clause and cancels the Nordstream 2.
Putin invades the next day.
Hmm.

Shaman says

Biden allows it but puts a “poison pill” in the treaty. If Russia steps one foot over the Ukraine border, the pipeline is cancelled.

This would mean the United States controls Europe. There's rumors that it was the CIA that setup the EU, and there's other rumors that the British control the United States.

The Nordstream II is beneficial to both Europe and Russia. NATO I think is just a bribery mechanism to keep the EU in line in my opinion. See what NATO does with the invasion of Ukraine? Nothing.

Well, the next few weeks will be interesting.. Hopefully, it's just put Ukraine in its place, and Russia leaves with a new understanding with Ukraine with minimal deaths.

BoomAndBustCycle says

Once again, Trump maintained peace cause he was a loose cannon and unpredictable. No one wants to pick a fight with a crazy vengeful person with 1 finger on Nukes. He made similar statements as Putin with his threats to North Korea. Lil Kim backed down.

Wow, you cannot deny that Trump kept Putin and Kim in check, so you go full partisan and attribute Trump's success in those matters to some bogus and unflattering reason.

BoomAndBustCycle says

Trump maintained peace cause he was a loose cannon and unpredictable

Agreed, Either that or he plays a loose cannon. In any case it worked.

BoomAndBustCycle says

flattered Putin and denied arms to Ukraine

Fake News
Trump sold javelins to ukraine while obama before him refused to give ukrainians lethal arms. I am sure the only thing trump cared about was $$$but the fact remains