by Rin ➕follow (8) 💰tip ignore
Comments 1 - 11 of 11 Search these comments
On average , the market attains a new high ever 15 trading days.
Big drops don’t happen until about 3 months of sideways movement after reaching its last all time high.
These last few weeks are among the most dramatic Dow moves off a high we have ever experienced.
If we can’t correct, chances of 5% and perhaps even a 10% daily corrections dramatically increase around the end of March. March and October have historically been crash months.
29% Vix is an inflection point. If vix breaks higher it could go to 50 or higher almost overnight.
If you want to know how the market is going to go, just call the assholes that run the Federal Reserve, they have infinite amounts of money, and they drive it in whatever fucking direction they want.
If it's able to sustain, let's say 2 closes below the box, then for the most part, the market is in 'near crash' mode.
https://patrick.net/post/1343390?offset=0#comment-1813799
Ok, the following is not my opinion but that of another trader I know.
The large cap indexes, like the Dow30 or the S&P500, are weighted so heavily towards the behemoths of industry, that when a seismic change occurs, they tend to become lagging than leading indicators.
So after many years of easy money, the Fed is now tightening up. When that occurs, it's time to look at the forgotten index and that's that of the Russell 2000.
Here's Russ ...
The Russell 2000 represents the small to mid-cap companies which have a much more difficult time in raising capital, paying their vendors, etc, & can't rest on their laurels like let's say a Chevron or a Proctor & Gamble.
For one full year, the Russ was range bound & not able to make leaps and bounds like their larger cap peers in the Dow30 and S&P500. When this occurs, it gives a type of leading indicator that the market players have reached some level of exhaustion and the smaller firms feel it, long before the 'Big Dogs'.
The chart above is a weekly candle stick and thus, shows that the Russ is testing the lower end of the year long price box. If it's able to sustain, let's say 2 closes below the box, then for the most part, the market is in 'near crash' mode.
So keep an eye on this. If the Russ is able to stay within the price box and both the EUR and the GBP are able to counter the USD rallies successfully, then the market will go sideways and be 'ok'.
FYI, this is not my opinion but that of another trader.