patrick.net

https://web.archive.org/web/20211124124808/https://corporate.nordea.com/article/69942/nordea-weekly-papers-please-and-how-to-trade-them

While a lot of people still appear to believe the vaccines block transmission, they clearly do not. Vermont – the most vaccinated state in the US – has seen case growth explode recently. This paper, for instance, finds “no discernible association between COVID-19 cases and levels of fully vaccinated”. What’s more, in a new paper on data from Israel’s national airport – an excellent data set – the authors conclude that Israel’s Green Pass system is inefficient in preventing infection spread (why is everything called green nowadays?), and that the relative protection from booster shot is 60% at best vs the unvaccinated (defined as those who have not been injected within the past six months). With that in mind, if you want to prevent transmission it might make sense to lock up everybody, unvaccinated or not.

Second, hospitalisation data cannot be fully trusted either as you count as a Covid patient if you have tested positive within 7-days of hospitalization, no matter whether you have a broken leg, a depression or severe Covid-19 symptoms. These “fake Covid-hospitalizations” account for 20-33% of all hospitalizations according to various studies, and this effect ought to be bigger this year than last year as the vaccine still works decently well against severe illness.

The authors also observed that the positivity rate among vaccinated was significantly higher than for the unvaccinated during Israel’s “aggressive booster campaign”, suggesting that the booster shots made individuals more vulnerable to infection in the immediate weeks afterwards. This is not only supported from Israeli data. Gibraltar’s experiences from a 99%+ vaccination rate also suggest that case growth could accelerate even more as injection rates accelerate with the boosters…

Many interesting data tidbits with a lot of referencing.