patrick.net

and so now having found high correlation and predictive ability on both sides of the rise and fall of booster uptake, we can start to feel more confident about this relationship, especially as we saw the same thing happen with dose 1 back in the spring. (dose 2, so close after dose 1 does not seem to do this. you get more AE’s, but no apparent immunosuppression)

some have sought to argue that the causality here is inverted and that higher death rates drive people to get boosters.

in a free society, i might be more inclined to believe this, but israel is not currently a free society.

vaccination and boosters are mandated and the “green pass” needed to live any real semblance of a normal life, eat out, and attend public venues is now requiring a booster to consider you “fully vaccinated.” i suspect this (and clearly the vaxx before the holiday rush) is the real driver here, not daily fear.

and we may get a way to test this claim more rigorously.

Twitter avatar for @DrEliDavid
Dr. Eli David
@DrEliDavid
Israel 🇮🇱 last month: 20% of population unvaccinated

Israel 🇮🇱 today: 65% of population unvaccinated

After definition of vaccinated was changed to 3 shots.
September 25th 2021

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the green pass now expires 6 months after your second dose and to keep it, you need a third. this will extend the validity for another 6 months. clearly, they look to be planning bi-annual boosters for the foreseeable future and possibly boosters forever world without end.

this seems likely to begin to drive more booster uptake again. if it does, we may have yet another inflection point to assess and it may be at a time of dropping death rates. that would provide a signal i think would start to look awfully definitive in terms of prediction and direction of causality.